Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings, and DraftStreet for 7/9/14

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Pitchers

Yu Darvish FanDuel 10500 DraftKings 12400 DraftStreet 25638
Some risk/ reward with this play tomorrow. Darvish is obviously crazy expensive but he also comes with some big time upside because the Astros strike out 24% of the time against righties and rank 24th in the league in team wOBA against that hand. Darvish strikes out 11 batters per nine and I think he's actually worth these prices today. He could really post a monster against squad struggling on this side of the platoon split.

Chris Sale FanDuel 9900 DraftKings 11800 DraftStreet 24098
Sale doesn't have quite the upside as Darvish, especially in the strikeout realm, but the Red Sox aren't a good offensive team and rank in the middle of the pack this season against lefties with a .706 team OPS against that hand. Basically, the Red Sox are just a blah team and Sale can exploit that in this matchup. He's a control freak who walks less than two batters per nine and has an xFIP of 2.80 and 5:1 K:BB. Those are more than enough to pay his bigger tag today and the Darvish vs. Sale decision is a little closer because of it.

Jason Hammel FanDuel 7400 DraftKings 9000 DraftStreet 19312
Hammel has been nothing short of awesome this season and the A's really kind of crushed that trade last week in the short term. For the Cubs Hammel rocked a 3.23 xFIP with about a 4.5:1 K:BB ratio that has me excited for this matchup today. The Giants rank 26th in the league with a .295 wOBA against righty pitching and strikeout more than 21% of the time. Hammel is a fantastic price across the industry and AT&T Park really depresses power from all sides. Love him in all formats.

Marcus Stroman FanDuel 6600 DraftKings 7300 DraftStreet 14599 early
This is the guy I'd be looking at for the early slate for sure. He's a great deal considering the circumstances and options. Stroman has been solid this season posting a lowish xFIP and solid peripherals. You'll probably need to pay up for Scherzer or Greinke in this slate to pair with him on multi-SP sites, but Stroman should be there too for the price.

Consider Rubby de la Rosa

 

Catchers

Wilin Rosario FanDuel 3300 DraftKings 4300 DraftStreet 6934
The top catcher on the board today though he’s only accessible for the early slate. Kind of a bummer for everyone going at Coors because they will only be around for a shorter slate in most cases. But Rosario is a guy who hits much better against lefties, this season tallying a .945 OPS against southpaws with a .356 wOBA. Some of that is thanks to an inflated Hr/FB% but our system doesn’t take that latter piece into effect. Rosario is a great play against Stults in Denver.

Miguel Montero FanDuel 3200 DraftKings 4000 DraftStreet 6681
After coming out like gangbusters to start the season Nathan Eovaldi has come very much back down to Earth and is definitely a guy we can target against with Montero who’s light years better against righty pitching. He has a 139 wRC+ against that hand this season and is hitting in Chase Field where power is helped to right field.

Kurt Suzuki FanDuel 2300 DraftKings 3400 DraftStreet 5006
Both of the abover-mentioned guys come in the early slate so you’ll need someone to occupy behind the dish during the later affair. It’s slim pickins’ there and you’ll need to get creative (i.e. cheap). Suzuki has actually been decent against lefties this season and Elias is just okay and prone to walking batters. Not a great play, but cost effective and not abysmal. (How’s that for a sale’s pitch?)

 

First Base

Man I really struggled with this position today.

Anthony Rizzo FanDuel 3400 DraftKings 4900 DraftStreet 6263
Alfredo Simon stinks. So Rizzo has that going for him. He also has the increased walk rate and power we’ve been waiting for all these years (or at least I’ve been waiting for it and then stopped waiting for it by trading him a few years back in my dynasty league). This position is thin today with many of the big boys getting some bad matchups. Rizzo is affordable and Simon is much worse than his sub three ERA would lead you to believe. His xFIP is in the low four’s and with the game being played in Great American Ballpark we can give a little boost in the power expectation.

Jose Abreu FanDuel 4000 DraftKings 5100 DraftStreet 8551
Jose Abreu doesn’t want to know anything about this “platoon split” thing. He’s got no time for it, choosing to lambast righty pitching with an OPS at .971 and 160 wRC+ this season. He’s crushing righties in the reverse split and Rubby de la Rosa, while posting some fine numbers so far this season, could be in for it today. First base is a little weaker and I could be convinced to pay up here with the Green Monster staring Abreu down.

Logan Morrison FanDuel 2700 DraftKings 3700 DraftStreet 6072
If you are looking to go a little cheaper and punt the position I’d consider Morrison where he qualifies at first. His OPS is on the lower side thanks to a Babip well below his career averages. Fine by me when facing Kyle Gibson, a dude who eschews the strikeout. Gibson’s had some nice games, but they were mostly luckbox affairs. His true colors are when he gets shelled.

Consider Chris Davis

 

Second Base

Brian Dozier FanDuel 3000 DraftKings 4200 DraftStreet 6645
Brian Dozier is in the Home Run Derby. Who saw that coming two years ago? But he’ll be swinging for the fences and a lot of the power stems from his splits against lefties. The ISO this season is .241 and the OPS runs in the low .800s but is dragged down a bit thanks to a low Babip. Roenis Elias has shown flashes, but he’s far from a complete pitcher and Dozier is a great buy today especially on FanDuel.

Jason Kipnis FanDuel 3100 DraftKings 4300 DraftStreet 4894
His price remains artificially deflated across the industry and I'm still incredibly bullish on him going forward. His power/speed skillset is such an asset in these formats mostly because it limits the downside on a particular day. Not a dream matchup against Brandon McCarthy but some of the other big names are up against much tougher.

Robinson Cano FanDuel 4200 DraftKings 5300 DraftStreet 9339
A little expensive but such a favorite to have the ball in play today against Kyle Gibson who strikes out only 4.74 batters per nine. Cano is lower on this list because of the ballpark and the price. You need to pay a steeper price from him today which limits flexibility elsewhere. And though I think there is a power surge coming, it is a little troubling how few home runs he's hit this season.

Strongly consider Scooter Gennett

 

Shortstop

Troy Tulowitzki FanDuel 4400 DraftKings 5500 DraftStreet 9899
It’s funny, Tulo doesn’t end up in our picks a whole lot. Not because of his talent, he’s amazing. But he’s often so cost prohibitive as to be a non-starter. Our system seeks to find the best bang for your buck and Tulo, while playing at MVP levels, isn’t always there. Today he is. Facing lefty Eric Stults in Coors is a good place to start and Tulo’s numbers against this split this season are ridiculous. 1.259 OPS. .375 ISO. 529 wOBA. 233 wRC+. My goodness. Do I need to spell it out anymore? A play across the board as far as I’m concerned.

Ian Desmond FanDuel 3300 DraftKings 4200 DraftStreet 5516
Wei-Yin Chen isn’t a terrible pitcher and his WHIP is low thanks to is low walk rate. But Desmond is better against lefties for his career even if this season’s numbers haven’t totally bourn out that platoon trend. He’s a nice play in the evening slate where Tulo will already be on his way to a four home run day.

Brad Miller FanDuel 2600 DraftKings 3000 DraftStreet 4378
If you want to go a little cheaper, Miller could be a decent option considering his biggest issue is the K and Kyle Gibson wants no part of those things. I always like matching up weakness and weakness when it comes to batters because it lowers their expectation on that front while typically coming at a reduced cost because of said weakness. Get it? Feel like I made that crystal clear.

 

Third Base

Ryan Zimmerman FanDuel 3300 DraftKings 4500 DraftStreet 6996
You’ve seen some Nats on here because the righties in the their lineup really trend toward wanting to face lefties. And like I said, Chen isn’t a terrible pitcher but the splits dictate buys against him. Zimmerman’s been solid this season and has a 123 wRC+ against southpaws. That isn’t awe-inspiring but it gets the job done. He’s a solid price on FanDuel and in play everywhere else.

Kyle Seager FanDuel 3600 DraftKings 4600 DraftStreet 7059
This is a great spot to target Seager today. I think Kyle Gibson is total trash and Seager has been excellent against righties this season. His .930 OPS alone is reason to take notice while the .401 wOBA has me really excited. The great news here is that none of it looks luck-aided. He’s just mashing and Kyle Gibson low K rate and higher BB rate should have many of the Mariners in a good spot tonight.

Trevor Plouffe FanDuel 2700 DraftKings 3700 DraftStreet 6222
He’s actually been a little better against righties this year, but that isn’t a career trend. I’m buying on the larger sample size numbers against Roenis Elias whose peripherals are underwhelming to say the least.

Consider Matt Carpenter

 

Outfield

Seth Smith FanDuel 3200 DraftKings 4500 DraftStreet 6291
Carlos Quentin FanDuel 2400 DraftKings 4200 DraftStreet 5604
The Padres have been brutal this season but you really can't blame Smith too much, and especially against righties. His .883 OPS and 151 wRC+ are by far the best on the team in those areas. Everyone else stinks. Not him. In Coors he makes for a solid add against a dismal Jair Jurrjens. Quentin on the other hand is on the wrong side of his split but is coming cheap in some places and Jair is just so brutal that I think you can pull the trigger.

Jayson Werth FanDuel 3500 DraftKings 4700 DraftStreet 8350
Manhandles lefties for his career but is running a little bad in HR/FB% this season, keeping his numbers down. That's fine, it means the price is still reasonable in some spots (not on DraftStreet) and you can add him to the Nationals stack I've been not-so-subtly hinting at throughout this writeup.

Jason Heyward FanDuel 2900 DraftKings 3900 DraftStreet 4978
Man do I (and our system) just want him to realize his true power potential. It might never happen but it doesn't mean we have to stop wishing. Heyward is in a good matchup today with Dillon Gee and continues to come awfully cheap everywhere. Just enough power and speed to get me excited and Babip has dragged his overall performance down just a bit. Still a buy in my book.

Billy Hamilton FanDuel 4100 DraftKings 4400 DraftStreet 6990
Jay Bruce FanDuel 3600 DraftKings 4200 DraftStreet 6541
Both get to face Dallas Beeler, a dude who posted low K numbers and crappy FIPs all the way through the minor leagues. He had a decent outing in his first career start but there's nothing in his history that suggests it will keep going. Both Bruce and Hamilton make high upside plays considering the matchup and the ballpark.

Consider Drew Stubbs and Jacoby Ellsbury

 

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