Baseball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings, DraftDay and StarStreet 7/19/14
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The big problem with pitching today is that there are two obvious aces going, but they cost so damned much and don't have perfect matchups making the price point a little hard to justify. Obviously both King Felix and Price are among the very best in the game. I just think it will be so tough to have their salaries in the lineup without making a big time sacrifice in the areas of your offense.
Gio Gonzalez - FD 9200 DK 10100 DD 17150 SS 26900
For team that’s righty heavy throughout their lineup, the Brewers actually struggle a bit against lefties. They rank in the bottom third of the league against that hand with a .309 team wOBA and strike out almost 23% of the time. Gio isn’t a sure thing by any means and represents a little more of a GPP play than anything because his control is erratic at times. But he’s been solid this season and definitely has swing and miss stuff when he’s rolling. The walks scare me for sure, but I think he has the best chance of far exceeding his salary today.
Cole Hamels - FD 8800 DK 9900 DD 17500 SS 27200
This is another risk if you aren’t going with one of the big boys today. Hamels gets the Braves as team sitting at the far ends of the spectrum in two critical areas. First off, they hit lefties really well with a team .336 wOBA that’s fifth in the league. On the other side of it though they strike out a ton, almost 24% of the time. Playing Hamels is high risk/ high reward. Like Gio, the walks are an issue. But he can strike guys out and has a low 3’s xFIP.
Tyson Ross - FD 7400 DK 9000 DD 16850 SS 26400
I know the Mets have been steadily improving their offense and they kind of screwed me last night by roughing up Ian Kennedy early. But there is still so much to like in matching pitchers up against them. They still rank in the lower third of the league against righties and strike out more than 20% of the time. Ross has a 3.07 xFIP and has the advantage of pitching in one of the best pitcher’s ballparks in all of baseball. He strikes me as a safer cash game play coming cheaper in some spots who allows you to put some bigger bats in your lineup.
Alex Wood - FD 7400 DK 7400 DD 13150 SS 21700
He’s a great value today, especially on two pitcher sites where his low salary allows you a modest chance at getting Felix or Price in your lineup if you so choose. Wood has been solid as a starter this season and the Phillies are worse than average against lefties and strike out almost 22% of the time.
Derek Norris - FD 3100 DK 3600 DD 7450 SS 6000
This guy must have trouble sleeping the night before he faces a lefty. Just up all night giddy with excitement. Wouldn’t you be the same way if you had a .452 wOBA and 195 wRC+ in that side of the platoon split? Slight downgrade for him because the A’s pull their own platoon swaps late in games based on matchup so he might not see all of his PAs. But a solid play nonetheless.
Russell Martin - FD 3000 DK 3900 DD 8350 SS 6400
Our system really likes Martin today against Brett Anderson. He’s been atrocious against lefties this season, so I’m a little less high on the guy from an anecdotal standpoint. But Black Box Theory and all. His overall season’s been good and Anderson is bad. I’ll have Martin in some Bucko’s stacks I’m running.
Mark Teixeira - FD 3400 DK 4600 DD 9850 SS 6900
Even with a low Babip in that split Tex is having a solid season against righties. The Babip sits below his career averages and is due for a regression, but the OPS is in the .800’s with a 130 wRC+. Alfredo Simon could really struggle in Yankee Stadium today as he’s a low K high home run kind of guy. That’s bad news in one of the best stadiums for lefty power.
Justin Morneau - FD 3300 DK 4400 DD 9150 SS 7300
Don’t want to overplay him away from Coors but first base is a little of a struggle to fill today so I’m willing to give it a shot against Charlie Morton who induces a ton of groundballs, but also gives up his fair share of home runs. Morneau’s been excellent this season, but again, it’s largely due to his home ballpark. This is the state of affairs at the position today. It’s weak.
Jon Singleton - FD 2900 DK 3800 DD 7750 SS 5100
I like plugging him in on the cheap against midrange/mediocre pitchers with lower strikeout rates. Singleton’s biggest issue is the swing and miss so getting him against a guy like Noesi who strikes out only seven batters per nine and issues a lot of walks is a nice place to meet on the value graph.
Consider Paul Goldschmidt who slaughters lefties but is very expensive
Jason Kipnis - FD 3500 DK 4600 DD 9050 SS 7700
Ever heard of Drew Verhegan? Me neither. Kipnis remains a great value across the board because of some early season injuries, bad luck and slight dip in production. All of that has his salaries looking real advantageous against a young pitcher with underwhelming minor league numbers.
Ben Zobrist - FD 3400 DK 4300 DD 8950 SS 7600
Liked him yesterday and that worked out pretty damn well didn’t it? He’s in a similarly positive matchup today against Kevin Correia who never saw a strike out he wanted to shoot for. Dude has one of the lowest K rates you’ll see among starting pitchers and an xFIP near five. Could be a nice day to put some Rays in a stack.
Dustin Pedroia - FD 3100 DK 4500 DD 8550 SS 7200
Is still running bad in his HR/FB% but it’s getting harder and harder to defend Pedroia this season, even in the lefty platoon split where he’s historically crushed. But Danny Duffy is a mediocre pitcher with a tendency to lose his command. I’m still buying on Pedroia in these splits, but am not as giddy as I used to be.
Jose Reyes - FD 3700 DK 4700 DD 9700 SS 7800
This is such a great spot for Reyes who thrives on making contact and letting his speed influence his game. Colby Lewis doesn’t issue many walks, and though he has some K stuff, is also kind of brutal. Reyes is the top SS play today, coming in awfully cheap considering his spot at the top of the order and the advantageous matchup. Babip is on the lower side (for him) this season and he doesn’t strike out an overwhelming amount against righties. Look for him to be on base making things happen today.
Asdrubal Cabrera - FD 2900 DK 4400 DD 7900 SS 6100
Drew Verhegan is making his first major league start today after frankly, a mediocre run through the minor leagues. His minor league numbers show a dude light on the K’s and heavy on the luck as the Babip is super low at almost every stop. I very much doubt it’s sustainable and foresee a short major league run. Asdrubal makes a nice cheaper play at a position that’s always tough to fill.
Jordy Mercer - FD 2900 DK 3000 DD 5800 SS 5000
He performs better in the a platoon split against lefties. And while not an offensive powerhouse by any stretch of the imagination is a nice plug and play against the lefty Anderson.
Josh Donaldson - FD 3300 DK 4500 DD 9600 SS 7700
Big second half coming. He was Babip'ed to death for the first half of the season and when that number starts to regress you are going to see some of the numbers he was putting up last season. Donaldson is coming super cheap considering his skill set facing the lefty. No matter his season numbers, he's still killing lefties with an OPS over 1K and wRC+ of 187. His price is basically a misprint today. Play him everywhere.
Martin Prado - FD 2500 DK 4000 DD 7550 SS 5100
He’s another dude who’s much better against lefty pitching even if his total season numbers leave you less than inspired. He’s hit well against lefties this season with an OPS in the low .800’s and the big number for Prado is the 6.8% K%. He is just impossible to strike out in this side of the platoon. Travis Wood will have some issues with righty bats in the DBacks order today.
Juan Francisco - FD 2800 DK 3600 DD 7050 SS 5500
Just basically taking as many Blue Jays as possible (you’ll see what I mean even more in a little bit) and Francisco comes in as a cheap play against a crappy pitcher. He strikes out a ton, but the OPS is still close to .900 meaning he can be a high upside GPP play against a flyball pitcher in Lewis.
Consider Carlos Santana
Jose Bautista - FD 3700 DK 5000 DD 10450 SS 8600
Melky Cabrera - FD 3200 DK 4100 DD 8900 SS 7300
Colby Rasmus - FD 2800 DK 3600 DD 6900 SS 5000
If you haven't noticed, I think Colby Lewis is in some real trouble today. Our system likes Blue Jays across the board and these guys rate out at the very top of the outfield plays for the money. I will have them mixed and matched all over the early slate. They just offer a ton of upside against an extreme flyball pitcher in Colby Lewis who is actually running a little hot in Hr/FB% while also getting crushed in Babip. Both should regress a some making Colby still a bad pitcher. All of these guys are at great prices and Bautista especially will be a high percentage play on FanDuel at those prices.
Andrew McCutchen - FD 5200 DK 5900 DD 13650 SS 11200
Starling Marte - FD 3400 DK 4200 DD 9100 SS 6500
These guys our system is targeting for the late slate. They are priced differently on the scale, but are both significantly better on the lefty side of the split and face Brett Anderson, a lefty who, what's the operative word here?, umm, blows. Anderson strikes out less than five batters per nine and is just generally bad at his craft now. Obviously McCutch is an elite talent and you'll need to pay for the chance. But Marte is in a great spot because his biggest issue is the strikeout and that problem is mitigated with Anderson on the mound.
Yoenis Cespedes - FD 3000 DK 4400 DD 8100 SS 6800
Lefty killer to his core. There are so many good options with the bats today, making a number of different stack options. His numbers against lefties are a little down this season, but that's mostly Babip related and I see a strong second half coming. Sick prices across the industry and should be on your radar.
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