Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings, DraftDay and StarStreet 8/12/14

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Pitchers

Chris Sale - FD 10600 DK 12500 DD 20800 SS 32000
What's not to love today? He's a favorite against Ryan Vogelsong and the Giants who rank in the bottom third of the league against lefty pitching. They strike out a fair amount in that split and don't offer a ton in the way of power. Sale's been magnificent this season striking out more than ten batters per nine, walking less than two and carrying an xFIP well under three into this one. Even for the money I'm willing to roll him into cash games for the expected safety.

Adam Wainwright - FD 9900 DK 9500 DD 20550 SS 29100
This is more a DraftKings pick. I wouldn't do him on FanDuel as he's so close in salary to Sale and the latter is a much better play. But where he's priced significantly lower than Sale I think you can consider him against the Marlins. His ERA is well outpacing his xFIP but the Marlins strike out a ton against righty pitching and Marlins Park keeps down power. Wainwright has been lucky this season for sure, but where the price is right you can roll him out there.

The waters get pretty murky after these two dudes.
Collin McHugh - FD 7400 DK 8700 DD 16800 SS 24100
He offers some upside, especially in the strikeout department against the Twins who K more than 21% of the time against righties. Minnesota can hit a little, so it isn't a dream matchup, but McHugh's racked up the K numbers this season putting down more than ten batters per nine and keeping his xFIP in the low threes. Makes a nice GPP play or a second starter on 2 SP sites.

Your Hail Mary types:
C.J. Wilson - FD 6800 DK 6300 DD 12600 SS 18200
Mike Minor - FD 6400 DK 6700 DD 11950 SS 17600
Both of these guys face teams near the bottom of the league against lefties in the Phillies and Dodgers. Both of these dudes can walk the ballpark and get bombed on the regular. But they also have swing and miss stuff with xFIPs really trailing their ERAs (by a ton for Minor). There's a ton of risk here but I'll be rostering both in GPPs on the upside they provide. Anything but sure things, but I think these are the basements for both of their respective salaries.

Catchers

John Jaso - FD 2600 DK 3100 DD 6750 SS 5600
The kind of guy I start considering when the price dips into a certain tier. Suffice to say, it's happened. Jaso, along with many of his A's teammates, is in a solid spot against Jeremy Guthrie who doesn't strike anyone out and has an xFIP in the mid 4's. Jaso is fine enough against righty pitching and has an OPS in the .800's on that side of the split. I'll take him for a little cheaper than Vogt with the same considerations.

Mike Zunino - FD 2900 DK 2600 DD 7850 SS 5100
Sat the last time they played a lefty and a little piece of me died inside. He's so much better on that side of the platoon and when he doesn't get a shot at it I tilt a bit. Today it's J.A. Happ, and even though the ballpark isn't ideal I think you can take Zunino on the price and matchup. Even with the high strikeout rate he still holds a wRC+ in the 120's and can provide some power on the cheap.

Evan Gattis - FD 2900 DK 3300 DD 7950 SS 6200
Wrote this yesterday and then Haren was scratched. Same holds true today.
I much prefer The Grape against lefties, but can talk myself into it today against Dan Haren. Gattis is fine enough against righties and this season has a slightly above average 115 wRC+ in that platoon. Haren is actually a reverse splits guy for his career and is worse against righty bats but about thirty OPS points. These factors make Gattis a fair value as he's coming super cheap almost everywhere today.

Strongly consider Carlos Ruiz

 

First Basemen

Brandon Moss - FD 2900 DK 3700 DD 8950 SS 6900
I'm going to be all over Jeremy Guthrie (in a figurative sense of course) and Moss fits the bill. Moss is coming so cheap across the industry now that his Ruth-ian power run at the beginning of the season has regressed back to normal. But that doesn't mean we avoid the guy. We just had to wait until the price came back down to Earth. It has and he makes a strong cash game play batting in the middle of that A's lineup.

Mark Teixeira - FD 3000 DK 3900 DD 9700 SS 6500
Could be a little hampered by injury right now, but as long as he's in the lineup I think I'd consider buying on him when facing lefties. Tex is better on that side of the split for his career and has been Babip'ed to death against lefties this season. Wei-Yin Chen is no pushover but the platoon and park help Tex's case here tonight. His price is more than fair from a points/$ perspective and I don't mind throwing him into lineups today on the cheaper.

Chris Davis - FD 3000 DK 4600 DD 9200 SS 7100
Been a disaster of a season, no two ways about it. His biggest problem, by far, is the strikeout rate which is up in the low thirties. Kind of gross. The reason I'd consider him today in a GPP format is I'm not totally buying Shane Greene's early success and Greene isn't a big swing and miss guy. Neutralizing Davis's biggest weakness is one way I can talk myself into this one. The power is still there. It's the contact rate that's an issue. I'll take him against lower end K guys.

 

Second Basemen

This position and shortstop are real problems today. I'm going cheap and hoping.
Howie Kendrick - FD 2600 DK 3400 DD 7200 SS 6000
Has had a rough time this season, but he's still hitting in a lineup that includes Mike Trout so how bad can it be? Well, yeah, bad. But he's on the lower salary end today, has a nice matchup, isn't an extreme splits guy and doesn't K enough to provide any significant downside. I don't love it by any means but at second base we are picking around the margins today.

Aaron Hill - FD 2800 DK 3800 DD 7750 SS 4200
Better against lefties for his career and TJ House isn't exactly Sandy Koufax. Considering his cheap prices you can do a lot worse especially since he hits at the top of the lineup and has a couple of guys like Trumbo and Marte behind him that are better in this platoon.

Consider Jason Kipnis if you are looking to spend.

 

Shortstops

Erick Aybar - FD 2500 DK 3400 DD 7150 SS 5600
Much of what I said for Kendrick holds true for Aybar as well. The big difference being Aybar's K and BB rates are nearly nonexistent. He is putting the ball in play all the time and this season is slightly above average against righty pitching with a 103 wRC+. That's nothing to write home about, but it'll have to do on a day that's tough at SS.

Jed Lowrie - FD 2800 DK 3500 DD 7550 SS 5200
Joins the list of A's I'm going after against Guthrie. Lowrie is nothing more than a warm body filling your SS position tonight, a themes among all these guys. With Hanley and Tulo out the position gets real bad, real quick.

Andrelton Simmons - FD 2200 DK 2800 DD 6100 SS 3700
Coming at punt prices against Haren who's significantly worse against righty batters for his career. This reverse split is just enough to bump Andrelton into a cheap play.

 

Third Basemen

Martin Prado - FD 2400 DK 3500 DD 7100 SS 4500
Say what you want about Prado, but the guy can hit lefties. He has a career .355 wOBA in that platoon and this season's been even better with a .407 mark and a .950 OPS. He's been one of the best hitters against lefties in all of the majors and today is coming damn close to punt prices. I'll have him in every format as the splits and the price dictate a bunch of upside without much downside. Even against an above average like Chen, the low salaries are just too tough to ignore. The multi-positional eligibility on some sites makes it even sweeter.

Adrian Beltre - FD 3500 DK 4400 DD 9800 SS 8400
Coming cheap against Hellickson and that's pretty much all you need to know in order to buy in Beltre. Hellickson is not good (don't let the ERA fool you), can't strike anyone out and has small sample size xFIP close to five. Beltre can definitely hit right handed pitching and this season has an OPS in the mid .800's against that hand. I'd prefer him against lefties mind you, but I'm targeting Hellickson in some spots for sure.

Consider Lonnie Chisenhall

Outfielders

Mark Trumbo - FD 3100 DK 4100 DD 8900 SS 6600
If you read us on the regular then you know this guy tops our value lists almost whenever he's facing a lefty. He's in a perfect spot on the graph because his price hasn't caught up after being bad coming back from injury and he's so much better against lefties. This is another time to buy on him, this time against T.J. House, an average pitcher with a low strikeout rate. Trumbo won you some money on our recommendation on Saturday. I think he's in a place to do it again still coming at a bargain.

Coco Crisp - FD 3100 DK 4100 DD 8900 SS 7200
Walks 4% more than he strikes out against righties and Jeremy Guthrie struggles to strike anyone at all out. This is a nice place a Crisp play, especially in cash games where his hints of power and speed make his floor high enough to help you cover the field. His midrange salary isn't prohibitive and for safety plays I'm all over the guy.

Mike Trout - FD 4800 DK 5400 DD 13850 SS 10800
Don't want to leave him off considering he's facing such a mediocre pitcher and Trout is, well, other-worldly and all. Facing off against Jerome Williams is a nice place to start and frankly, I'm not going to delve too deeply into Trout's resume. You know the story. What you want to hone in on is his price isn't completely breaking the bank. With so much other cheap value on the board today (see the two OF above) it's not a stretch to roster him.

Starling Marte - FD 3200 DK 3700 DD 9150 SS 6600
System is still buying him on his past splits and some outward rest-of-year projections that are a little bull-ish. I'd chuck him into a GPP or two against Robbie Ray, who sucks.

Some other cheaper OFs with nice matchups
Shin-Soo Choo - FD 2900 DK 3800 DD 9300 SS 6100
Bryce Harper - FD 2900 DK 3600 DD 8500 SS 6500
Jay Bruce - FD 3000 DK 4200 DD 9000 SS 7300
Alfredo Marte - FD 2200 DK 2400 DD 5000 SS 2700
All are catching low K pitchers and coming at super low prices for their expectations. I know the top three dudes have struggled to varying degrees, but I'm not willing to pull the plug on them just yet.
Give a follow on Twitter @dailyfantasysr and @dougnorrie.

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