Baseball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice

Doug Norrie

Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings, DraftDay and Draftster 8/26/14

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Johnny Cueto - FD 10200 DK 11400 DD 19050 DFSTR 10800
Even with xFIP trailing the ERA by about a run I'm still content to play Cueto in cash games today at higher prices because his peripherals have been solid this season and even with a little luck he's still been a damned good pitcher. The abnormally low ERA has his price inflated a tad though it's in an acceptable range considering the Cubs are about as bad as it gets against righty pitching. They rank only above the Padres in team wOBA and San Diego is catching them. Cueto will most likely be a big cash game play because the rest of the field has its question marks.

Alex Wood - FD 7900 DK 8200 DD 15750 DFSTR 8600
Another guy with a great matchup. The good news on Wood is he's coming with very similar peripherals as Cueto against an equally crappy team, but at significantly lower prices. Wood is striking out more than 8.5 batters per nine and walking less than three. The xFIP is in the low 3's over an extended run this season. The Mets are brutal against lefty pitching, coming in at 28th in the league against lefties. I see Wood as much better for the dollars on a day when pitching is weaker across the board.

Madison Bumgarner - FD 9600 DK 10000 DD 20600 DFSTR 11600
He's a little lower on the list, but I think he makes a real solid play today. The Rockies are a totally different team away from Coors. On the road they rank in the bottom third of the league in team wOBA. After a brutal game against the Pirates, Bumgarner's last four starts have been tight and his last game against the Cubs was a GPP delight.

James Paxton - FD 5500
The Rangers hit lefties well, but he's coming so cheap on FanDuel that the risk is completely acceptable. He has solid strikeout and walk rates to go with a low threes xFIP. Cheap enough with the other factors.

Jason Hammel - FD 6600 DK 7400 DD 13850 DFSTR 3000
If you are looking for a cheaper arm on DraftKings to pair with one of the higher priced guys then Hammel might fit the bill. The Astros strike out a ton against righties (see last night against the Shark) and rank in the bottom third of the league in that team split. Hammel hasn't been great since coming over the A's, but he's a cheaper arm with a solid matchup.



Devin Mesoraco - FD 3100 DK 3800 DD 7150 DFSTR 3000
Going to be difficult parsing out the value today with so many bad arms taking the bump. But we've got you covered. Mesoraco is a great place to start. He's facing a below average lefty in Travis Wood. Wood does the same thing every game. 6IP 7-8H 3R 4K. It's like clockwork. And if you are keeping track at home. It ain't good. Mesoraco's had a solid season against lefties with an .862 OPS and 136 wRC+ in that split. Great American Ballpark plays to hitters and he is coming reasonably priced.

Buster Posey - FD 3600 DK 4200 DD 10250 DFSTR 9300
Whenever the Rockies are around I end up writing about the same couple of guys for a few days in a row. That's because Colorado employs a stable of bad lefties. So dudes like Posey look great value for a series because of the righty/ lefty split. He's real tough for lefties to strike out and puts the ball in play around 85% of the time against them. His close to .500 slugging boosts his overall OPS in that split and I like him against de la Rosa.

Miguel Montero - FD 2700 DK 3700 DD 8600 DFSTR 6900
If you want to go cheaper Montero's hitting in Chase Field against the journeyman Roberto Hernandez. The prices are much below the two guys above so if you are in a salary pinch here he makes it easier to squeeze.

Strongly consider Derek Norris


First Basemen

Jose Abreu - FD 4000 DK 5400 DD 12450 DFSTR 8000
Think he stands head and shoulders above many of the other options today. The price is steep for sure, but his first season returns against lefties have been nothing short of extraordinary. With a hat tip to his Hr/Fb%, Abreu's rocked a .992 OPS against southpaws and 168 wRC+. And the home runs don't account for an OBP close to .400 meaning he's getting it done all around. He faces T.J. House in US Cellular and the spot is awesome if you can swing his salary.

Seattle Firstbasemen
Kendrys Morales - FD 2700 DK 3800 DD 7550 DFSTR 5600
Logan Morrison - FD 2600 DK 3700 DD 6950 DFSTR 5800
We can pick on Nick Martinez a lot today and these two guys are coming cheap. Safeco doesn't help hitters much. But Martinez does. He's turned on some strikeout stuff recently, but the overall season numbers have been abysmal. I'm more of a track record guy than a recent performance hawk. Martinez hasn't been good and these two guys make solid punt options.

Consider Edwin Encarnacion


Second Basemen

Robinson Cano - FD 3500 DK 5200 DD 10750 DFSTR 5800
Speaking of Nick Martinez, the prices on Cano are kind of a joke in some spots. FanDuel is one of those places where he comes in around the mid tier of salaries. For a guy who's tuned up righty pitching over his career and this season a .933 OPS with a wOBA over .400 speaks volumes about what he can do. His contact rate is such that he remains safe for cash games as chipping in points here and there is his specialty. Cano's a real tough out for righties and Martinez is anything but above average.

Brandon Phillips - FD 2700 DK 3600 DD 7450 DFSTR 4000
This is obviously a big downgrade from Cano, and Robinson is the guy I'll be playing the most today. Phillips is obviously pretty brutal all things considered and I'm not even going to really bother giving you the stats because they probably won't help his case. The problem is that second base is particularly weak today. I think you an do worse than to grab Phillips on the cheap hitting around the middle of the order against a lefty.

Consider Dee Gordon



Alexei Ramirez - FD 3000 DK 3800 DD 8450 DFSTR 5300
Hits lefties in dribs and drabs but I think the White Sox in general are in a good spot against House today who's been brutalized by righty bats on the season. House is allowing an .850 OPS against righties this season and with Ramirez hitting near the top of the order in a hitter's park, well, those are just the pieces of the value puzzle we're putting together. Wouldn't spend more than him at the position today, but he makes a nice buy.

Didi Gregorius - FD 2400 DK 3400 DD 6300 DFSTR 6300
Even with a brutal .239 Babip against righties this season Didi's managed to put up a 103 wRC+ and .750 OPS in that platoon split. He can hit righties some. So many shortstops can't hit at all so finding one that does even league average things in the batter's box is fine enough by me. Has a nice matchup against Roberto Hernandez who strikes out less than six batters per nine and walks close to four.

Consider Hanley Ramirez


Third Basemen

Kyle Seager - FD 3300 DK 4500 DD 9500 DFSTR 8300
Continually picking on the same guy isn't always fun, but I can't help but like some of these Mariners for Tuesday. Seager's another M with fantastic splits against righties, carrying an .887 OPS against righties into this game. His .386 wOBA is one of the highest in the league on that side of the split. Again, the ballpark does him no favors, but Nick Martinez is a pitcher to target bats against.

Josh Donaldson - FD 3500 DK 4700 DD 8800 DFSTR 3000
Here's a guy where the splits are just too good to pass up. Donaldson faces Dallas Keuchel and a problem for Dallas today will be his lack of strikeouts. He's been a good pitcher this season for sure, but Donaldson's been better. Josh's numbers against lefties are through the roof. His 1.025 OPS against lefties is among the league leaders and he's a guy I want to have in there in almost any time he's in that platoon.

Evan Longoria - FD 3400 DK 4500 DD 9450 DFSTR 7500
Wei-Yin Chen is a little better of a pitcher than I want to target hitters against, but Longoria is somewhat of an exception. Some things working in his favor. Though his numbers are down a little from his historical splits Longo still has an .855 OPS this season with a 138 wRC+ against lefties. The ballpark's another factor as Camden Yards boosts power all around. Like I said, Chen's been good this season, but I'm willing to take Longo on some of the other factors.



Yasiel Puig - FD 2800 DK 4500 DD 11300 DFSTR 3000
Puig's price has been on the steady decline over the short term with it having to be close to the bottom on FanDuel. For cash games there I think he's basically a must start at that price. He's been at the top of the league against righty pitching this season with a .940 OPS and .408 wOBA in that platoon split. Trevor Cahill can generate K's but he also walks four batters per nine. Chase Field really plays up power to all fields. Puig makes a fantastic play tonight.

Jose Bautista - FD 3700 DK 5000 DD 10500 DFSTR 4100
Here's another guy who's seen his price decline over the short term. We'll take it today against the inconsistent Rubby de la Rosa who has had some few and far between flashes this season. More often than not he's struggled. Joey Bats is better against lefties, but totally acceptable against righties with a mid .800's OPS in that platoon. Love the ballpark as well with the Rogers Centre boosting power to all fields.

Dustin Ackley - FD 3900 DK 4000 DD 9000 DFSTR 13600
Very nice price on DraftKings, Ackley hitting second in the lineup against a poor pitcher has him in play today. He's above average against righty pitching and works well if you are stacking some Mariners today. Think he's a little steep on FanDuel though.

Alex Gordon - FD 3400 DK 4900 DD 9350 DFSTR 9100
Has a solid matchup against Nolasco and is a useful cash game option with a 130 wRC+ against righties this season. Nolasco stinks and Gordon chips in with enough stat-filling that I see him as pretty safe today.

Ryan Ludwick - FD 2300 DK 3000 DD 6450 DFSTR 3200
Ludwick has some punt play potential today against Travis Wood. He's hit lefties exceptionally well this season with an .825 OPS in that split. Like him a lot in this ballpark and he is coming super cheap while probably being off radars.

Strongly consider Desmond Jennings


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2 Visitor Comments

  1. Am on a 1-11, and 4 day losing streak since i have started using your picks.

    • It’s been a weird month in DFS . Been a tough stretch for a bunch of us grinders, This guy is solid. Stick with him. Remember use all advice as a guide , but do what works for you

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