Baseball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice

Doug Norrie

Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings, DraftDay and Draftster 9/4/14

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Ian Kennedy - FD 8100 DK 9300 DD 15650 DFSTR 7900
The Diamondbacks are the new Padres. It's just fun to target pitchers against them. And you've got good reason to do so. They have been steadily dropping in total offense as compared to the rest of the league. They are rough against right handed pitching and Kennedy, with Petco Park all around him, could be in line for a strong game. He's been consistent this season, maintaining a high K rate of over a batter an inning with an xFIP in the low threes. The ballpark is of course a factor as Kennedy does allow fly balls that are kept in the park. Wish he didn't walk as many batters but, this is a good spot for him.

Max Scherzer - FD 11000 DK 12800 DD 21750 DFSTR 10800
I'm putting him down on the list because I don't think he has the best matchup today and the price is a little steep. The reason it's worth considering Scherzer is that he's really the only pitcher with the K upside to overcome a suboptimal matchup and maintain a bit of "safety" for cash games. The Indians are tough against righties, but like I said, Scherzer has so much strikeout potential that he raises his floor considerably.

Wily Peralta - FD 7100 DK 6600 DD 13400 DFSTR 5100
If you are looking for a bargain bin guy I think Peralta has some value today. The Cardinals, while ranking near the middle of the league against righties, are in general a light hitting bunch. Peralta is far from a stud, but he's coming super cheap with a 3.73 xFIP on the season. Again, he won't win you a big tournament, but he makes a fine pairing as a 2 SP who probably won't completely submarine your squad.

Note on Michael Wacha: Our system really likes him today against the Brewers, but he might be on a limited pitch count. And that has me worried enough to just stay away for the time being.



Brian McCann - FD 3000 DK 3900 DD 8100 DFSTR 4500
Starting to swing a hot bat of late with home runs in his last two games. We had him as a top catcher play yesterday and he more than paid. Happy to roll it back again tonight against a weaker Brandon Workman. Workman doesn't strike many batters out, walks way too many and has an xFIP in the mid 4's. Yankee Stadium gives McCann a boost in power expectation. He's run bad most of the season, in Babip and Hr/FB%. Some of the recent performance could just be a little regression finally happening.

Honestly, I doubt I'm straying too far from McCann today on such a short slate and with his pricing being pretty advantageous. Though if he doesn't play I'd consider Jonathon Lucroy against Wacha.


First Basemen

Chris Davis - FD 3400 DK 4800 DD 10400 DFSTR 11600
On a recent crushing tour. Another guy we had as a top play yesterday and he obliged with a home run in the third. He's making up for some lost time as the better of his season's been a strike out laden nightmare. But today he's in another good matchup with flyball friendly Mike Leake. And Camden Yards of course helps boost the power from all fields. The prices on him are still in the buy zone and he's for sure coming out of the malaise that plagued him for so long.

Kendrys Morales - FD 2300 DK 3400 DD 6350 DFSTR 3000
Logan Morrison - FD 2300 DK 3000 DD 6200 DFSTR 3000
These guys are both coming cheap against no-K Scott Baker in a great hitter's park. The Ballpark in Arlington is a hitter's paradise and the Mariners could put up some runs today. Both Morrison and Morales have been brutalized by Babip this season and Morales has been especially crushed in his Hr/FB%. Baker is a weak pitcher and I'd be fine punting here.


Second Basemen

Robinson Cano - FD 3100 DK 4700 DD 10050 DFSTR 4700
Speaking of guys we want to target against Scott Baker. Cano's price on FanDuel is a joke and he should probably be played in all formats. He's been great this season against righty pitching with a .914 OPS and 167 wRC+ on the season. And this is without a huge showing of power. Cano is very difficult for righties to strike out and he has the ball in play a great deal of this side of the split. Price is a little steep on DK, but I think you can swing it because of the matchup.

Howie Kendrick - FD 2300 DK 3900 DD 7400 DFSTR 4600
Kyle Gibson isn't very good. His numbers this season don't look great when spelled out. He strikes out less than six batters per nine, walks close to four has a 4.00 xFIP is struggles to go late in games. Kendrick is coming very cheap and though it's difficult to back up this play with a great deal of statistical evidence, our system is buying on him coming at punt prices hitting around the middle of the order.


Elvis Andrus - FD 2300 DK 3500 DD 7350 DFSTR 3500
I have a love/hate with the Rangers. I typically love a few guys at the top of their lineup when they face lefties. And I hate the bottom of their order that seems to always just crush the overall expectation of the team. Because guys like Andrus (along with Beltre and Rios below) make solid plays for their prices when they face lefties. But the Rangers are awful and they are such dogs to get extra at bats. Regardless, Andrus is still coming cheap today at a weak position and hitting in the two hole has its advantages over the long term.

Jose Reyes - FD 3500 DK 4500 DD 9100 DFSTR 6600
I'd think about paying up a little here against Odorizzi. Jake's K rate is high, but so are his walks. It's tough to make mistakes against the Blue Jays who have as strong first four batters in a lineup as you'll see. This is a little of an overpay for Reyes but he's by far the best offensive SS on the slate today.


Third Basemen

Kyle Seager - FD 3100 DK 4400 DD 9350 DFSTR 6700
I'm keeping these plays in the same ballpark. Seager has been crushing righty pitching this season. He and Cano (and Ackley to some degree) are a big reason the Mariners have so much success on this side of the split. Seager's .873 OPS and .386 wOBA on this side of the platoon make for a great play against Baker and you have to believer the Mariners will be a somewhat popular stack on such a short night.

Adrian Beltre - FD 3100 DK 4400 DD 9350 DFSTR 5000
Beltre actually makes this decision pretty close. I really don't think you can go wrong with either. I would lean a little towards Seager only because I think the Mariners are more inclined to put up a few more runs tonight. But Beltre's .974 OPS is a reminder that he destroys lefty pitching and should be a favorite against Elias tonight.

Strongly consider Evan Longoria



Some nice value here tonight.
Desmond Jennings - FD 2800 DK 3800 DD 7100 DFSTR 4000
I'm almost always on this guy when he's facing a lefty. He's posted a 139 wRC+ against southpaws this season which is in line with his career averages. His price is pretty low across the industry mostly because of his struggles on the right handed side of the split. That makes the perfect time to buy on a guy. We want his price driven down by factors not necessarily relevant to the current situation.

Yoenis Cespedes - FD 4100 DK 4700 DD 10100 DFSTR 5800
A nice value everywhere and a great deal on DraftKings. Cespedes has struggled in the lefty side of the split this season thanks to a crazy low .214 Babip. Capuano's posted some fine enough strikeout numbers but has come back down to Earth a little over the last few starts.

Alex Rios - FD 2600 DK 3700 DD 8600 DFSTR 5700
Want so badly to stay patient with this guy as I think he comes at great discounts against lefties. Last night was a struggle against Vargas, but the fact remains that he's coming damn near punt prices in some spots which is nuts considering his season OPS against lefties is well over .900 and his .392 wOBA is among the best in the league against lefties. Great ballpark and Roenis Elias is a league average-y guy.

Kole Calhoun - FD 3100 DK 4000 DD 8400 DFSTR 3000
He's got a great contact rate against righty pitching this season which is great news against a guy like Kyle Gibson whose strikeout rate is less than 5.5 batters per nine. Calhoun has some power upside and hitting in front of Mr. Trout has its distinct advantages.

Consider some Yankees' OF in a stack against Workman.


Give a follow on Twitter @dailyfantasysr and @dougnorrie.

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Thanks, and good luck!


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1 Visitor Comment

  1. Ross not Baker tonight vs SEA

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