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Daily Fantasy Football Picks for Week 4 - Draftster
Week 3 is in the books, and it was great times here at DFSR central. While Brees, Graham, and McCoy were a dumpster, we thankfully nailed pretty much everything else and were able to escape with a decent week, all thing considered. The great thing about daily fantasy football is living to fight another day! So here we are - on to week 4!
We also have a new partner with a dynamite football product over at Draftster. They're a forward thinking player in this space, and we think they're destined to make some huge waves. They also have a couple thousand bucks in freerolls every week, and they're still small enough that you can get in on the ground floor. And for DFSR users, they're prepared to offer you a no-strings attached $5 voucher for one of their games. Click the banner below to get involved!
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Drew Brees - 9000
I wrote this in our main picks article this week:
What's that saying about fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice, shame on.. something. I forget what I was talking about. Oh! Drew Brees! Love the guy! Love him. To be honest, darling reader, I know you're feeling thrice bitten and four times shy on Brees at this point, but hear me out. New Orleans is currently sitting at a 24.8% offensive DVOA versus a 15.9% DVOA from 2013. Layman's terms - they're doing just fine on offense. For whatever reason, this isn't converting to huge fantasy games, but I believe that this will be the day! Dallas was horrendous against the pass last year, and even gave up some big plays to the Rams. This is the week! I swear it.
This holds true on Draftster as well, of course. At 9000 you're paying for it, but I'd argue that Brees has the most upside of any QB in the league this week, unless of course you're thinking about...
Matt Ryan - 9000
Going to have to pay a bit here, but after embarrassing the Bucs for a huge fantasy performance in just 3 quarters of work, Ryan has to be mentioned in the conversation with Brees as far as upside is concerned. And this season, you could argue that he's looking a little bit safer. Ryan's connection with Julio Jones means he's constantly a threat to go deep, and you have to love him against a Vikings team that allowed the 3rd most passing yards of any defense last season.
Aaron Rodgers - 8100
After really struggling against the Lions last week, Rodgers has seen his price drop some in the short term on Draftster. Rodgers this week faces a Bears team with a decimated secondary. If you weren't aware of it, the folks on Monday Night Football hammered it home over and over. And then they talked about it some more. To put it simply, Geno Smith was able to throw for over 300 yards against the Bears. Geno Smith. Buying great players after tough weeks is a fine strategy and means you are often purchasing at a discount.
Arian Foster - 3000
The tricky thing on Draftster can sometimes be spending all of your money. This is one to monitor leading up to gametime. If he is playing, this is a starting feature back at the minimum. That's tough to beat even if he's playing at something like 70%. Again, you need to double check his status and adjust accordingly, but the price is simply too low to ignore if he's in the lineup even against the Bills.
Steven Jackson - 4000
Jackson has seen fewer touches than many expected this season, but this price is starting to get out of hand. For a guy that still gets work around the goal line in a very dynamic offense, this could pay handsomely if the Falcons are once again in the position to burn some clock against the Vikings.
Antonio Brown - 8300
When Ben can find him, Antonio Brown is a legit #1 wide receiver in the NFL. And if Tampa's performance against Julio Jones is any indication, the Steelers' number 1 should have plenty of opportunity to get open and convert those open looks to big scores in this weekend's slate.
Anquan Boldin -4100
Coming at a very low price in a game that has the second largest over/under on the day. The matchup with the Eagles should be a shootout and Boldin continues to be targeted heavily in the 49er offense. The main story here is price and opportunity. This is something we usually talk about with running backs, but it applies here as well. If he's targeted at a high rate (and I expect him to be considering the amount of offensive series the 49ers should run) then he can pay this price off easily considering Draftster is a 1pt per reception format.
Malcolm Floyd - 3600
Floyd is an incredible gamble play. If he does connect with Rivers, he can go off for big plays and big scores - as seen by last week's 2 reception, 98 yard game. But he can also put up a goose egg for you. So this one comes down to your risk tolerance. The nice thing about him on Draftster, again, is the price. For these low prices you can have him miss and still be right in the thick of things by playing high priced guys elsewhere.
If you've been living under a rock for years and years, Jimmy Graham is the best tight end in football. Sites also can't seem to price him high enough, so he's a top play on Draftster this week. Our projection system also likes Niles Paul and Martellus Bennet, but there are a couple of interesting guys you can look at on Draftster as well.
Vernon Davis - 3500
He falls much into the same category as Arian Foster. After sitting out last week Davis has seen his price drop to the minimum. This is a piece of Draftster's pricing structure you can exploit in a big way. If he is in the lineup in what should be a high scoring game, then I don't see how you get away from the guy as a punt play. It's not a punt play of course, but it's priced like one.
Antonio Gates - 6100
So you've obviously seen Gates' best game of the season, but that doesn't mean he should be available for this mid range price. Anyone even remotely capable of a 3 touchdown game needs to be priced a bit higher. And while he's unlikely to outperform Graham, you can easily envision a scenario where Gates + whoever you get with your savings outperforms Graham + whoever you have to scrimp on to afford him.
Delanie Walker - 5600
Similar to Gates. The rest of the sites have caught up on Walker, and Draftster is still sticking pricing him a bit under. While he came back to Earth last week, week 2's monster should be rattling around in your brain. Arguably a safer play than Gates, and with just as much upside.
My weekly note on kickers:
Frankly, ranking kickers is sort of beneath me. So what I'm going to do, instead of give you a long and drawn out explanation for each, is give you a little insight into our kicker strategy, and give your our top plays on a points per dollar basis.
Here's brass tacks: I rarely stack a kicker with my offensive players because that limits their collective upside. I try to take kickers in good weather in games where they are a favorite with high totals. When pressed, I'll just whatever money I have left on a kicker that looks decent. Cool? Here's who our system likes:
Sebastian Janikowski 3000
Nick Folk 3000
Blair Walsh 3000
Shaun Suisham 3000
Defense & Special Teams
One thing I love about choosing defenses on Draftster is the affordability of the defenses. There are several in the 3000 dollar price range that have great match-ups this week. Here are a few of them:
Chargers @ Jags
Dolphins @ Raiders
Lions @ Jets
Steelers @ Buccanneers
Redskins @ Giants, or vice versa
With so many cheap options, it's hard to imagine spending more on defense this week.
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Thanks, and good luck!