Daily fantasy football picks for Week 5 - DraftKings

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Week 5 is officially part of the data archives. I believe it was one of the best weekends ever for the daily fantasy community, namely thanks to DraftKings and their Millionaire Maker tournament. There seemed to be an invasion of new players aiming their sights on the seven-figure pay out. My hopes are that the new amateurs are officially addicted and will continue to flood the market…even though a well-known DF pro (user name: SamENole) came away with the victory and the million dollar first prize. Coincidentally, SamENole, also a professional poker player, lives in the same area as myself and plays cards at the same Hard Rock casino. I am sure I have shared a flop or two with this character, but don’t know him well enough to declare the next round is most definitely on him! Nevertheless, he entered approximately 60 lineups this week and found the ultimate pay dirt (P.S. I will further detail his winning lineup later in this post).

Congratulations SamENole, it was the chance of a lifetime! Oh wait, no it wasn’t!? Breaking news!!! DraftKings are offering another Millionaire Maker! When you ask?! This week!!

This is not a joke; immediately after week 5’s Millionaire Maker capped out at the maximum of 92,400 entrants (which equates to $184,800 in DK rake), DraftKings decided to offer the exact same contest in week 6. An extremely bold move considering they had been advertising the first Millionaire Maker for over a month and had been offering non-stop satellites all year. Now, DK will have only 6 short days to achieve the required 92,000+ entrants.

I can only speculate that the influx of new players outweighs the possibility of losing a few thousand dollars (possibly closer to $100,000) on a guaranteed prize pool. Regardless, its win-win for us as the daring bid could result in some nice overlay while continuing to attract new DF players. Fortune favors the bold, DraftKings, and I like your style. DK has done the best job of advertising and is winning the battle of best daily fantasy sports site. That’s just my honest…and biased, opinion. Sorry FanDuel, no one likes to pick kickers.

Ok ok, enough with the friendly banter. Let’s talk strategy. The aforementioned SamENole posted a winning score of 235.26 with a lineup consisting of Peyton Manning, Arian Foster, Ben Tate, Emmanual Sanders, Golden Tate, Demaryius Thomas, Antonio Gates, Terrence Williams, and the Chargers Defense. Notice anything about this lineup, other than leaving out the WR for the Bengals, Brandon Tate? Tate talk aside, it’s clear SamENole utilized the “stack” method which is common in GPP formats. In fact, he went a step further and employed the “double-stack” method (more commonly used in the drive-thru of your local Wendy’s). Considering the hype surrounding Peyton Manning this week, stacking him with his two favorite wide outs seems almost too obvious, especially after the fact. (If life’s a bitch, then hindsight is life’s evil stepsister who haunts your most vivid of dreams).

Before I go further, it’s time for a little math lesson:

Stacking is best described by positive and negative correlations. I could provide you the scary looking formula for the correlation coefficient (r), but for our purposes, the actual concept is more important than the math. When we think of player production, we can use simple linear regression concepts (That is until some genius comes up with a logarithmic scale that better fits the relationship between teammates). I apologize for the tangent, let me get back to the point, pun intended.

The production of a quarterback has a strong positive correlation with the production of his wide receiver, or in other terms, as the QB’s chances of having a good game increases, so do the wide receivers. Naturally, the flip side of the coin reveals the downside of stacking in that the QB and WR’s bad games are also strongly positively correlated. For this reason, the QB/WR stack is generally a better strategy for GPP formats and not the cash/double-up formats as it creates a more volatile lineup.

So how about the QB/WR/TE or QB/WR/WR “double-stack” that SamENole applied to make his million? Well this is actually a combination of both “stacking” and “hedging”. By playing two positional receivers (WR/WR or WR/TE) with their respective QB you are introducing a hedge into your lineup. The production of a wide receiver is the most difficult to predict as game plan, “who is covering who”, and many other variables can significantly affect a receiver’s usage rate (e.g. Targets). When playing two or more of the receivers, you hope to capture most, if not all, of the production from your QB. Often times, you have a clear feeling that a QB will perform well, but have a cloudy feeling as to who will score the touchdowns or receive the most yards. This is when a “double-stack” turns into a very safe hedge and if you are lucky could turn into a very high scoring stack. Additionally, the best version of this stack arises when the team you are using has little to no run game (Montee Ball had been struggling all year making the Denver stack that much better). It is important to consider a team’s red zone tendencies.

A second version of “stacking” is the QB/RB stack. Going back to correlation, the production of these two positions are negatively correlated (or at best have very little correlation at all). Generally, a running back will get more touches in a game where his team is in the lead and they are running the clock. Obviously, this kills the production of the QB.  This strategy should only be used for your double-up formats, but shouldn’t be ignored as this strategy can give you a good chance to capture every touchdown for a given team.

A third option would be to play two WR’s from the same time, sans the QB. This option is similar to the QB/RB stack in that it should only be utilized in cash formats. I will utilize this strategy when one of two WR’s are underpriced and the other is either priced correctly or a bit overpriced. There are two examples of that this week which I will talk more about below.

I will admit, everything I just said comes with a level of common sense. It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to understand these relationships. It’s one thing to recognize the strategy, but another to successfully implement it. Luckily for us, picking the right stacks comes back to our single most important metric, value! I normally look for players that have decreased in salary from the week before. Often, this price decrease is due to a perceived "tough" match up so keep an eye out for these perceptions. In week 5, Denver WR’s were the epitome of this. Both Emmanual Sanders ($5,100) and Demaryius Thomas ($7,400) were the cheapest they’ve been all year going up against a perceived tough match up in Arizona.

Finally, I want you to ask yourself two questions every time you consider a stack. This first one seems obvious but even I ignore the obvious from time to time….If you have a really good feeling on a QB, then the first question you should ask is, “who will he be throwing to?” Likewise, if you have the same feeling about a WR, then his QB should immediately be on your radar. Often, we look at each position independently which I did this week. I loved Peyton Manning but dismissed his WR’s because I thought I had found better value in other WR’s for different teams (if you recall last week, DK had tons of undervalued WR’s).

The second concept pertains to combined value. Once you find your stack, add up the total salaries and ask yourself, “what do these players need to get in order to achieve a combined 3.0 value?” If that outcome seems very likely, then clearly the combined salary of the players is under priced and all systems are go. If not, well then back to the drawing board.

The last point I would like to put out there is one that isn't normally considered. When you decide to use a stacking strategy you are also protecting yourself against injury. For instance, if you stack two WR’s and one of them were to go down in the first quarter, then at the very least, your other play should see additional targets and partially make up for the loss in production. Sure, this is a minor consideration, but an advantage nonetheless.

So by now you all know the theme of the article. Found below are my “Stacks of the Week”. Keep in mind, whenever I post a strategy-based article do not dismiss the picks embedded in the article. I am using the picks to convey a concept, but also believe the picks to be viable for the given week. Last week, I used Austin Davis and Peyton Manning as my two picks to compare GPP vs. Cash. I also loved both of them as plays. In fact, I said Austin Davis has the best chance to return value while Peyton has the best chance to be the number one player at his position. I would have been exact on both forecasts if it weren’t for Russell Wilson and his 120+ rushing yards, breaking the MNF record for most rushing yards by a QB.

For this week obviously working on letting you know some stacks I'm targeting. James will run his Sleepers and Stacks piece later in the week.

 

Week 6 Picks: Stacks of the Week

Tom Brady DK $6,000 & Rob Gronkowski DK $5,800

This may be my favorite stack of the week, not only for GPP’s, but even for cash formats as well. It’s rare that I would use a QB/WR stack in cash formats but both of these plays are well underpriced. Brady is 6K, the least he’s been all year by far. Yet, he finally had a coming out party last Sunday night in a game where the New England offense finally seemed to be playing with some conviction. One of these convicts (probably a bad term to describe a NE tight end) was Rob Gronkowski. He had his best game of the year and yet his price dropped $800 from the previous week. He is seeing increased snaps and targets each week and I see a two, maybe three, touchdown game in the near future. The Lions have faced only one legitimate TE (Martellus Bennett) this year and were gutted to a tune of 8-70-1. Here was my favorite stat I found on this match up. Since 2010, Gronk has played 6 games against the Bills (He missed both Bills games in 2013 due to injury). He has scored in every single one of those games, including three games where he scored twice. He also topped 100 yards in 3 of 6. Can you say "bonus baby"!? Get your Richter scales ready, I expect some Gronk-spikes.

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Tony Romo $6,100 & Dez Bryant $6,600

The public perception of the Seahawks at home has a profound effect on the salaries of their opponents. Romo and the Cowboys, who are the most surprising team of the year, are all under priced this week due to this perception. Like most shrewd investors, I plan to feast on public overreaction. From the Seattle games I've watched, their run defense and pass rush has been the most impressive while their pass coverage has been quite average, you heard me Sherman! Luckily for Romo, his offensive line has been strong all year and should give him time to find his favorite target in Dez Bryant. This is a fantastic GPP stack for the price.

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Jay Cutler DK $8,000 & Brandon Marshall DK $6,300

Marshall is the cheapest he’s been all year by an astounding $900. This isn't all that surprising considering his production, or lack thereof, since the 3 touchdown performance in week 2. He has 3 or less receptions over the last three weeks and has been battling a nagging ankle injury. However, he saw his full complement of snaps this past Sunday and looked healthy on the field. He saw only 5 targets as his two counterparts, Jeffery and Forte, saw 7 and 12, respectively. During post game, Coach Trestman insisted Marshall will see more targets in the future. Ultimately, my biggest reason for Marshall getting back on track is his relationship with Jay Cutler. Simply put, they are bros and always will be. Cutler should show it by getting his bro the ball this week in what looks to be the shootout of the week considering the two terrible defenses and an over/under hovering around 54.

Ashlon Jeffery DK $6,500

This possible shootout presents the opportunity to order a “double-stack” with cheese. As previously mentioned, I have a hunch that this is going to be a Marshall dominated game, but this is obviously a risk considering his prior performances. Ashlon on the other hand has been pretty consistent over the past three weeks.

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Nick Foles DK $6,800 & Jeremy Maclin DK $6,800

The price tag of Foles plummeted this week. He is down an incredible $1,700 from last week and is the lowest he’s been all year by $1,200. I will admit, he hasn't looked great over the past two weeks but the week 4 match up @ San Fran is excusable while last week the Eagles got off to such a dominate start via their defense, Foles wasn't needed much until later in the game.

This divisional match up featuring two strong offenses has an over/under at 50.5 (the second highest of the week). If you play Foles, then you also have to run with Jeremy Maclin. He is the 9th most expensive WR this week but is tied for the NFL lead in targets and continues to score. It’s not a great match up but his targets alone make him a safe pick with obvious upside.

LeSean McCoy DK $6,000

So here is my first QB/RB stack recommendation and this combination has all the qualities I am looking for. Like Foles, McCoy’s price tag has crashed. 6K is the lowest he’s been by $1,000, however, you cannot attribute this nose-dive to lack of usage. He is a lock to receive 10+ carries a game and 4-5 targets. Most importantly, he is utilized in the passing game which is vital when stacking a QB and RB. Cross your fingers and pray for a red-zone target.

Jordan Matthews DK $3,700

With a spread over 50, you have to like a double-stack in this game. Considering Matthews cheap price, I like the idea of stacking him with Foles and Maclin. I still feel Matthews has the slight edge over both Zach Ertz and Riley Cooper. Every week you need to use some "punt" priced plays so why not kill two birds with one stone and accomplish a hedge will you are at it. Matthews at 3.7K will accomplish this.

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Julio Jones DK $8,400 & Roddy White DK $4,800

I think it’s plenty viable to stack Matt Ryan with his two favorite wide outs as well but I wanted to save this duo for the WR/WR stack option. I am also fearful that the Falcons, even though they are back home, just aren’t the same team as they were the first two weeks with a healthy offensive line. Regardless, Julio Jones is currently the most dominating WR in the NFL, he’s also the most expensive. However, his teammate Roddy White has dropped all the way down to 4.8K, $800 less than he’s been all year. Remember, the WR/WR stack is a cash format only strategy. They have a combined salary of $13,200 which means they need 39.6 points to achieve value. This is a lofty goal, but luckily for this duo there is very little threat (Devin Hester and RB screens) from the other receivers so if Matt Ryan throws even two touchdowns there is a fair probability that both will be accounted for by Julio Y Roddy.

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Kendall Wright DK $5,500 & Justin Hunter DK $4,800

After both players had breakout performances, Hunter jumped $1,100 while Wright saw zero change in price. More notably, Wright is the 28th most expensive WR and Hunter is 40th overall. This just seems wrong considering they are playing at home against the team allowing the most passing yards to opposing QB's. This stack is not a recommended play for GPP's but considering their combined price tag of 10.3K I think it's a safe prediction that they achieve the 3.0 benchmark. The QB situation in Tennessee is worth monitoring, but whether its Locker or Whitehurst, I still like the play. I have heard talks about them going to Zach Mettenberger, in which case I wouldn't take the risk on a rookie QB making his first career start.

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Cordarrelle Patterson DK $4,200 & Jarius Wright DK $3,200

Normally, I would place my best value WR duo right up front, but I wanted to reward all the readers that got this far. This is my value stack of the week without question and as long as Patterson (hip) and Bridgewater (Ankle) are healthy I will be rocking this tandem in all my double ups. These two wide outs are a combined $7,400. In double up formats, I care nothing about ceilings. I want the team with absolute best possibility to score 150 points. At 7.4K, Patterson and Wright need 22.2 points to achieve 3.0 value. How about 8 catches and 142 total yards? I won't even factor in a touchdown (or bonus points) as they only have one score on the year combined. However, Wright has lead the team in targets two weeks in a row and put up 8-132 in Bridgewater's only start. They have an obvious rapport. Patterson has been floundering (main reason for his lowest price of the year by $1,300) but I think he's well over due to see increased targets.  Greg Jennings is the only other weapon they have and as long as he doesn't steal too much of the production, a 3.0 value should be in the bag.

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My Saturday article will feature all of my favorite picks for week 6. This week, more than any so far, has a ton of unknown statuses due to injury. Unless you plan on playing Thursday players, which I normally tend to fade at all costs, I would not jump to any conclusions just yet. Monitor the injuries and be ready to crush come Sunday Morning.

Which team leads the NFL in touchdowns this year?...The Jets. BA DA CHA!

It is your right as a human being to follow me on twitter @brycemcvay, don’t let freedom down and take advantage of all that is granted to you. Good talk, see you in the trenches.