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Daily Fantasy Football Picks for Week 7 - Draftster
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We have our general picks for Week 7.
This piece will examine some Draftster-specific value as this site tends to quickly adjust prices quickly and severely. This is great news for you as identifying players who are priced as punts is a money-making venture for you. Here we go.
Joe Flacco- $6600
Flacco came out last week and treated the Bucs much like a college quarterback running the game up early to shoot up those AP rankings. Except this is the NFL and Flacco just poured it on because he could. I'm not letting that one performance completely inform my thinking here. In fact, I'll take my large brain completely out of it. Our system has Flacco as the number one points per dollar play on Draftster this week for reasons all its own. He faces an Atlanta team allowing a whopping 280 passing yards per game. Flacco isn't a favorite to repeat last week's performance (ever) but he should be able to air it out against a Falcon team susceptible to the pass. The Ravens are a favorite which has me just a little concerned they turn to the run early if they're leading, but if Flacco can maintain a higher completion percentage as he did last week he makes a solid start in this format.
Colin Kaepernick- $6700
Our system is all over Kaep in nearly eery format. Part of this stems from his high floor because he adds a not-insignificant amount of points with his legs. He's averaging about 40 yards per game on the ground which is equivalent to an additional passing touchdown per game. He's not the kind of thrower that will top 300 yards on the regular like he did last week against the Rams, but he airs it out enough that he is safe in this format. Considering the 49ers could be playing from behind against the Broncos, Kaepernick should see plenty of volume in this one.
Consider Alex Smith coming in at only $3000. Not a guy I'd really ever think about, but the price is punt play territory and he doesn't make a ton of mistakes.
I'm writing about Lynch here mostly because I want to start getting away from Demarco Murray in some spots. Listen, this is a personal choice as I think Murray is a perfectly reasonable start against a weaker Giants' D. But one concept in DFS involves hedging and one way to hedge against over-exposure to a certain player is to play different guys at similar points/$ values across multiple sites. According to our system Lynch and Murray are sitting right around the same expectation relative to price on Draftster. He will see a bulk of the carries in a game the Seahawks should have in hand against the Rams. St. Louis ranks 26th in the league in average yards allowed on the ground this season. Even though he isn't a consistent part of the passing game, he's been known to chuck in some receptions as well.
Justin Forsett- $6500
He didn't see a ton of usage last week, but that's mostly because the Ravens were boat-racing the Bucs and they simply didn't need to overuse the guy. Against the Falcons this week Forsett could see a healthy dose of carries against a team allowing 140 yards per game on the ground. The Falcons are just brutal on defense and are especially exposed in the run game. Forsett is interesting in a point-per-reception format because up until last week he was averaging about five targets per game. None last week, but again that seemed more circumstance than anything. Coming in the mid-tier and allowing to spend in other spots, I think he sees a positive expectation against a weaker D.
Consider CJ Spiller at the minimum if you really like to live dangerously.
Quick note: If A.J. Green ($3000) or Calvin Johnson ($4000) play they are both coming near the minimum and are must starts even if they are merely decoys. Just too much talent to avoid at these prices even if they are playing at 75% or less.
Reggie Wayne - $5000
Draftster is a full point PPR site so you can forgive Wayne if he doesn't see a big percentage of the Colts' red zone usage. He can make up for it plenty in volume. He's seen 21 targets over his last two games, hauling in 11 catches. The Bengals rank 22nd in the league in opponent passing yards per game. Wayne is a safe target for Luck and in cash games, where we just want to accrue solid points without necessarily having to hit big home runs, this price and talent strike me (and our system) as having a high floor. The ceiling isn't into outer space, but you don't need it to be. His price allows massive flexibility in other spots like running back where it pays to spend.
Anquan Boldin - $4600
He isn't spectacular, but he's steady and that's all I want from my receivers coming on the cheap in a 1 point per reception PPR format. Boldin sees about 7.5 targets per game and coming at such a low tag means you are getting him relatively safe with very little downside. His salary allows you spend a little at running back, a strategy I'm taking in Draftster this week. With many of the RB1s grouped relatively closely together I want receivers getting the ball on the cheap.
Andrew Hawkins - $4000
I love taking guys after they pull no shows in the hopes that the rest of the universe is off of them. Yes he put up a goose egg against the Steelers. And yes this crushed my soul and lost me a fair amount of money. And yes, on a personal level I'll never forgive him. But this is DFS and we move on. Before the stinker Hawkins was averaging 11 targets a game. Same quarterback. Same offense. Jordan Cameron is back which takes away some targets. But these things will happen from time-to-time, especially with a team that runs as much as the Browns. But there is simply no reason to suspect Hawkins will just be ignored going forward. The Jags are horrible in every facet of the game. I think you slot Hawkins in on Draftster at a low price with the expectation that you gain separation because he will be a very low percentage start.
I'm not paying for tight end in Draftster this week. No Gronk, no Graham and I don't want to spend up for Julius Thomas when most of his value is wrapped up in catching touchdowns.
Jason Witten - $3800
A friendly reminder that I'm focusing this article strictly on point-per-dollar value to help you exploit Draftster's salary model. It's not a list of the best guys at every position. If you haven't picked up on that yet, it's worth reminding you that I don't think Jason Witten is awesome. Or a reminder that you aren't reading an NFL article from three years ago. But he's super cheap, still seeing about five targets a game and the Cowboys are solid favorites.
Larry Donnell - $4200
The bad news first: his last two games have been a atrocities with him seeing two total targets. If you aren't acquainted with fantasy football, or football, or numbers, that's bad. But he's a minimum priced guy on a team who just saw one of their leading receivers end his season with a crippling injury. This doesn't make Donnell a sure thing to see an uptick in usage, but it certainly can't hurt. It's speculative, but that price makes it so very tempting considering our system is low on most tight ends this week. Oh an the Cowboys are among the worst in the league defending against the tight end this season.