Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings Wednesday 11/5/14

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Point Guard

Trey Burke - FD 5800 DK 5500
This early in the season, our projection system is going to love a lot of guys who are off to slow starts. This is because very little has changed fundamentally about certain players, but they've had a bad run of things. And early in the season, this makes a BIG impression on daily fantasy basketball players. Burke is one such guy. He hasn't gotten worse at the beginning of his age 22 season. He's actually playing more minutes, and the rest of the stats will follow soon enough. While the Cavs play tough interior defense, Burke should be able to do some damage around the perimeter at basically punk level prices.

Deron Williams - FD 7700 DK 7300
If you're looking for your double up play, you've found him. Williams is about as safe as they come these days, playing almost 40 minutes a game and putting up a 17/3/8 with some defensive stats as well. Minnesota plays an uptempo game, and Rubio and company were awful at defending the PG position last year (26th in the league). A real set it and forget it play for cash games.

Kyrie Irving - FD 7800 DK 7300
A lot of people were worried about Kyrie's production with 2 huge new mouths to feed, but it's more been like a "rising tide raises all ships" situation so far. Irving is averaging 22 points and 5 assists, and playing a very solid 38 minutes a game (as of 9pm EST on Tuesday). It looks more like the Cavs are content to lean on their young legs, and like Irving with the ball in his hands. The prices haven't adjusted to this yet. I think he takes advantage of the undersized Burke for a very nice night.

Elfrid Payton - FD 5400 DK 4000
If you're looking for a cheaper play with some upside, the Magic rookie is your man. We've seen this sort of usage pattern before. Rookies who perform decently in early season run tend to get more trust as the season progresses, and you have to love his ability to get the ball in his teammates' hands. Oddly, the concern with him seems to be foul trouble. But I think his fouling is masking his true value. While he won't be a safe cash game play until he gets this under control, he'll remain a very attractive GPP play for the first game that he puts it all together. Oh god, I got this far without mentioning the Philly defense. Negligent. They were dead last against opposing PGs last year.

Also considered: Ty Lawson.
 

Shooting Guard

Jimmy Butler - FD 6000 DK 4900
A blast from the DFSR past! Jimmy Butler is one of the first guys I errantly recommended night after night, as I am wont to do. Well guess what? I'm back! The thing about Butler is that he just plays. And I mean, a lot. Dude averaged more than 38 minutes per game last year, and in his return from a thumb injury that doesn't seem to be affecting him at all, he's just sitting out there on the court once again. He was crushing it on this number in the preseason, and his first couple games back don't lead me to believe that will change now that the season is here. He was priced about 10% higher last season, and he'll be back to those numbers before long.

Kyle Korver - FD 4600 DK 5000
A relatively absurd price for Korver, considering he's playing just as many minutes as last year, and shooting almost as frequently. The Spurs aren't a a super match up for opposing SGs, but this low price builds so much safety into Korver's price, and when he runs hot from behind the arc, there's more than enough upside as well.

Arron Afflalo - FD 5900 DK 5500
Afflalo has been an early season under-achiever, but there's real reason for optimism here. First of all, Sacramento allowed the 3rd most fantasy points to opposing SGs last year. Afflalo's slow start can be attributed to a bit of run-bad in the FG% and 3PT%. When this normalizes, the fact that he's actually taking more 3s should lead to some mini-break outs here and there. Going up against a team that can't defend his position should help.

Alec Burks - FD 5400 DK 5400Burks has turned into a very nice safety play at these low prices. While he's scoring dependent (and really, most SGs are), Burks has been between 20 and 29 FPs in every game since he came back during the preseason. While Cleveland has a smattering of very tough defenders, Dion Waiters isn't one of them. And it stands to reason that, with attention drawn to the bigger name Jazz, this could be a game on the higher end of Burks' projected outcomes.

Also considered: JR Smith and JJ Redick.

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Small Forward

Tobias Harris - FD 6800 DK 5800
Max-effort Harris is one of my very favorite players in the game. Dude just gets after it. If he's really going to see a 20% minutes increase this year, his price has another 10% or so to climb in all likelihood. And this match-up against Philly really couldn't be better. The city of brotherly love helped a brother out to the tune of 16% more fantasy points for opposing SFs last year, and my man Harris should be standing first in line to reap the benefits tonight.

Kawhi Leonard - FD 6100 DK 5500
Leonard was pretty awful in his first game back from his eye infection, but I think we can all agree that that was more of a warm up than anything else. Our projection system thinks the growth we saw from Leonard in last year's final is real, and that this could be the beast-mode breakout we have been waiting for. Now, the Spurs are always a little bit funny with minutes, but if he plays back up in that 30 minute range (or even more), there's potential for explosive upside and a rapid 10%-15% price increase industry wide. Atlanta really struggled against the small forward last year (allowing the 8th most fantasy points in the league), and this could be the game he gets going.

Shawne Williams - FD 4200 DK 3000
If Williams is going to play 28 minutes a night, these prices are just stupid and will change very soon. The journey-man SF is no all-star or anything, but he should put up 20 fantasy points a game in his sleep alongside guys that will draw most of the attention away from him, and there's room for a lot more if he gets hot. Charlotte defends the SF well, but this brings up an important point. The main things that make a guy match-up proof is his price and opportunity That's what Williams has going for him at present time.

LeBron James - FD 10600 DK 10700
On a night where there are some reasonable options elsewhere (and the inevitable punts that will almost certainly arise by tip off), I am feeling Lebron more than any of the other super-duper stars. Frankly, it comes down to opportunity. The Cavs seem determined to give Lebron the most consistent run of any player in the NBA, averaging 42.5 minutes per game so far during this young season (as of this writing). Now there's a chance they'll just run the Jazz off the floor and this won't come to fruition, so I don't want to call Lebron a cash game play - but he simply offers more upside at his price than anyone, anywhere.

Also considered: Jabari Parker, Gordon Hayward
 

Power Forward

Nerlens Noel - FD 6300 DK 6000
Noel is every bit as exciting as he looked like he'd be when he was at Kentucky. He swarms all over the defensive end, disrupting everything opposing offenses try to do. He's obviously as raw as raw can be, but the "little bit of everything" approach gives him a pretty high floor and a delicious ceiling as well. Orlando was worse than league average against opposing big men last year, but where they really struggled was getting shots blocked. They allowed 28% more blocks than league average. I probably don't need to tell you that this is very good for the man that brought the flat top back.

Jason Thompson - FD 4000 DK 3600
Thompson is a guy whose name you hear shouted a lot around DFSR headquarters. We mostly spend time yelling for him to stay out of foul trouble. Here's the thing with Thompson - he can't stay on the court. This means you really can't play him in a cash game. BUT! In those games where he stays out of trouble, Sactown has shown time and time again that they're happy to leave him out there for long stretches. When that happens, he can pile up blocks and boards in a hurry. Denver isn't a team that bangs down low as much as some, so this could be a good spot for him.

Jared Sullinger - FD 6600 DK 6500
I love Sullinger. Mostly because his beneath the rim game reminds me so much of myself. For real, though - Sullinger is another guy whose price simply won't stay at these levels if his growth continues the way it typically does for players his age. He's got a nose for boards that betrays his less than athletic frame, and he flashed some insane rebounding upside this preseason. Toronto's banged up front court is a perfect match-up for Sully to out-hustle and out-bustle his way to a double double and then some. Love him for GPPs and cash games.

Taj Gibson - FD 5700 DK 5200
If he starts again, play him. Price would be dumb in that case.

The Spendy
Blake Griffin - FD 9700 DK 10100
Kevin Love - FD 9400 DK 9200
Our projection system likes both of these guys, but I'm partial to Blake mostly because of the fewer mouths to feed thing. I don't think David Lee has any chance to defend him if in fact he does return, and this could definitely be a vintage high-light reel performance.

Also considered: Carmelo Anthony. Our projection system loves Anthony against Detroit's lack of a defensive front court, but we're a little skeptical. Anthony is shooting 4 fewer shots per game this year, and if that trend continues, he'll have a hell of a time staying elite.

 

Center

Roy Hibbert - FD 6200 DK 7000
Full disclosure - our projection system actually likes the expensive centers tonight. If you do too, that's cool. But I'm going to give you some guys who I personally think will outperform them on a per-dollar basis. Hibbert is one of those. Roy has been incredibly consistent at churning out 5 points per dollar on these prices this year, and he's both the anchor of their defense and a go-to guy in the half-court offense. Now, Washington was pretty tough against centers last year, but I think Hibbert's role and his ability to block shots makes him the safest play on the board, with more upside than you might think.

Andrew Bogut - FD 5800 DK 5400
It's great to see Bogut back and playing 30 minutes a game. When he does this, he'll be a very nice play at these bargain prices. What I love about this match-up is that DeAndre is very unlikely to get Bogut into foul trouble, but the Clippers still have a lot of guys who will drive the lane and give Bogut the chance to get his blocks while playing help defense. Bogut feels like a very safe investment if you want to spend bigger elsewhere.

Also considered: Kelly Olynyk, Andre Drummond, Al Horford

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