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Basketball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice

11/09/2014
Doug Norrie

Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings 11/9/14

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Point Guard

Kemba Walker - FD 7500 DK 8200
These are easy right? Not too much thought going into things when Sixers and Lakers are playing. Really more the Lakers but the Sixers are still among the worst defenses in the league as well. Walker is far from a sure thing of course. But when he goes, he goes big. I love when I can get a slow team like the Hornets squaring off against a super fast paced squad that plays no D. You are going to get so many more possessions that hitting value seems like an easy thing. Walker should do it today squaring up against Lin and company. Could be a bloodbath.

Kyle Lowry - FD 8400 DK 8700
Facing up against the Sixers has been and continues to be a boon for opposing squads, this is no exception. Lowry's found himself over the last two games and although we don't really factor recent performance into current projections, we always find it soothing to know the guy isn't broken or anything. This is the case. Lowry should see plenty of possessions against a well-paced team and is the kind of guy that fills up the sheet. Loving pairing both of these guys on a short slate. The fact that he can score or dish in bunches really raises the floor in these kinds of games.

Darren Collison - FD 6500 DK 6600
It was looking real bad for the guy the other night (good for me, I didn't play him) but he got his second half on and then an overtime as well. The latter saved his day (bullshit) but I think he's plenty in play tonight against a depleted OKC squad. Collison is clearly the guy they want running the heavy minutes in Kings-land and he's been a popular play of late. Keep it going here.

Consider Jeremy Lin

 

Shooting Guard

Lance Stephenson - FD 7000 DK 7000
Gary Neal - FD 4300 DK 4400
Love these plays for the same reason (the Lakers) and for different ones (the price). Playing either against the worst defensive team in the league is a no-brainer because the they complete lineups in terms of flexibility while getting money in different places. Both guys can create on their own and both want the ball. It doesn't always work when they are on the court together (I've seen at least two times where one threw their hands up in the air at the other for not passing the ball). But what do we care? We want the ball in either hand. Both will be popular plays today. I think I'd personally take Lance for safety and Neal for some upside. Though both seem safe relative to price.

DeMar DeRozan - FD 8300 DK 8400
Terrence Ross - FD 4400 DK 5100
This is the all-teammates edition and I probably could write nearly the exact same thing for these two guys as the ones above (minus the body language issues). Derozan actually doesn't come in fantastic in out system even considering the oppoonent, and Ross just doesn't have the consistency to play in any safe way. But Philly is still playing at a faster pace (though not as quick as last season) and the possessions should be there for these two.

Strongly consider Wes Matthews

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Small Forward

Draymond Green - FD 5400 DK 5700
With David Lee out for the next two weeks and Draymond's price refusing to climb, expect to see him as the popular play from a typically terrible position. Today is not different on the latter point as it's pretty difficult to get money in on any of the guys listed above him in the price guide. This one is pretty easy. Draymond has killed it in his time as the starter and there isn't really any reason to suspect it changes. He's a mid-priced guy getting more than thirty minutes a game and contributing in multiples areas of the sheet.

Wesley Johnson - FD 4300 DK 3600
Gives you almost no upside, but should be able to get some points in on any given night. The way the Laker offense is working Wes doesn't have a great high end number to him even at these low prices. But in cash games if you are looking to just get a 4x (FD pricing) then this is the way to go. He's playing more than thirty minutes a night and the ball bounces his way every so often. That's fine enough.

Consider Michael Kidd-Gilchrist if you think he sees the run
 

Power Forward

LaMarcus Aldridge - FD 9200 DK 8600
Ah, early season run-bad overreaction. Aldridge has had a tough time paying off his prices this year, but I'm calling fluke-city. He's actually shooting better than he did last year, and his minutes are only down because of a couple of early season blow outs. The big reason his points haven't caught up? Rebound randomness. Unless you're seeing something I'm not, there's no reason why Aldridge's rebounds should be down 5 from last year, or if you're pessimistic, 2-3 off his career averages. Denver was 28th against the power forward last year, and Faried is just not much of a defender. Huge game coming here.

Amir Johnson - FD 5400 DK 5800
Patrick Patterson - FD 4800 DK 5500
Monitor this one as it approaches game time. The Sixers have been predictably terrible against opposing PFs in the last season plus a few games, since they are horrible against everyone. But it's even worse with Noel out. If Johnson is back, I love him at this price. If it's Patterson, the same applies for him.

Ed Davis - FD 4400 DK 4900
Alert! There's a big drop off after you get past my top two recommendations here. I'm submitting Ed Davis as an interesting GPP play for, I suppose, obvious reasons. Basically, he's paid 5x on these prices all season long. He only plays 20 minutes, but they are a max-effort 20, with upside for more in the inevitable Lakers blowout. I take it back - I think he's solid for cash games as well. He's running hot in terms of field goal percentage, but without boring you with math, that's only about 2 fantasy points per game. The rest looks legit. Good play.

 

Center

Al Jefferson - FD 9400 DK 8600
In case you haven't noticed by now, the Lakers are a below average team defensively. Our projection system has actually given us Jefferson for the last two games, when he paid north of 5x on these prices on FanDuel, so it stands to reason that he'll be a must-start against the Lakers and their league worst defense against opposing centers. I particularly like Jefferson here because he just gobbles up bad post defenders.Jefferson's three less than fantastic games came against very tough interior defenders (Asik, Gasol, Larry Sanders). This won't be the case tonight.

Jordan Hill - FD 6100 DK 6400
Hill's price is climbing, and rightfully so. A lot of people are talking about "Hill's hot start," but I'm not buying it as a fluke. He averaged 10/7/1 with a block in 20 minutes last year, and he's got 15/9/1 and 1.6 blocks in 30 minutes this year. This is just who he is. If this is who he is, the price should be higher, period. While Jefferson is a prolific post scorer, he's never been much of a defender down there. Charlotte was 22nd against the opposing center last year. Not much else we need to know.

Tyson Chandler - FD 5700 DK 5600
Chandler has been the very beacon of consistency this year, in large part because the things he does (grab rebounds, block dudes, and dunk off the pick and roll) are relatively match-up proof. He's paid between 4-5x in all but one of his games this year. Miami was the 8th most generous team to opposing centers last year, so there's nothing to spook us there.

Also considered: Andrew Bogut

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