Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings 11/11/14

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Point Guard

Mike Conley - FD 7100 DK 6900
It really can't be overstated just how bad the Lakers are on defense this season. They've, for the most part, been blitzed since the opening whistle. They play at one of the fastest paces in the league and have by far the worst defensive efficiency and that includes last game against Charlotte in which they played pretty well. They've been bad across the board, so get ready to see some Grizzlies on this list. I love Conley's floor tonight against such a well-paced squad with Jeremy Lin "defending" him. Should be a popular mid-range salary cash game play. There are some punts on the board tonight, but I'm sticking with Conley for some safety.

Darren Collison - FD 6500 DK 6300
He seems to have found a home in Sacramento. Or at least a defined role. He's playing the big minutes starter point guard role and taking advantage. Averaging 15/6/4 with a couple of steals is just the kind of line I want to see when I'm putting a guy in a cash game. That ability across the box score really keeps the floor high on any given night is fantastic considering the floor. And though the Mavs have been decent against point guards this season, Collison is a solid price for the production.

Kemba Walker - FD 7500 DK 7800
Strictly an upside play. He can disappear in games and having Lance on the court with him I don't think necessarily help his consistency. There just isn't enough ball-handling to go around. But if you want to target him in a GPP against a defensively deficient Damian Lillard then I don't mind it at all.

Consider Reggie Jackson or spending up for Stephen Curry because the money gets a little weird tonight.

 

Shooting Guard

Courtney Lee - FD 5300 DK 4100
Remember, this is going to be a theme here tonight. Playing against the Lakers has its decided advantages and Lee, playing more than thirty minutes a game out of the two should be in line to hit value relatively easily tonight. Memphis doesn't have much outside shooting but Lee's been able to handle an increased scoring load this season. His minutes and ability to contribute beyond just the buckets has me believing he is super safe for these prices. Will be popular cash game play as his tag is easy to fit. (Consider Tony Allen as well on the cheap-er)

Evan Fournier - FD 4800 DK 4900
Really what I'm typically looking for in a shooting guard is a guy getting a ton of run who won't completely submarine my team. Very few shooting guards are the focal points of their team's offense and spending up for them can be a real problem. This is one of those nights. I don't love many of the guys on the top end of salaries because I think so much has to go right for them to hit value. On the flip side Fournier is running out there for thirty plus minutes a night with Oladipo shelved and though he's far from a dynamic scorer, he's much more likely to pay off his price than the bigger money guys.

Monitor who stands to see minutes with Nicolas Batum out. Both CJ McCollum or Will Barton could see an increase, but both are crazy speculative.
 

Small Forward

Jeremy Lamb - FD 5000 DK 3900
The theme of this write-up (and really NBA DFS as a whole) is opportunity. Players often don't need to be that good as long they are going to have the opportunity to stand around on the court for awhile. Lamb is another such case. With the Thunder is a deep injury dive he's getting the minutes he needs. I actually don't think there's a crazy ton of upside here all things considered, but as a safer play his scoring and bits of rebounding play at a small forward position that never seems easy to fill.

Draymond Green - FD
5500 DK 6200
He's been a beast with David Lee out and has probably solidified his position as a starter going forward past even with Lee returns from the injuries. He's been a beast averaging a 14/8/2 while throwing in some steals and blocks here and there. His price hasn't climbed to where it should be on FanDuel making this decision rather easy there. It's not as cut and dry on DraftKings. Starting both on FD is a near no-brainer and I think both are 65%+ cash game plays tonight.

Tobias Harris - FD 7100 DK 6900
I'm not usually an advocate of playing a guy against a slow team like the Raptors simply because the possessions will get limited. But our system likes Harris today and he offers a nice chance to get away from the two guys listed above if you want some GPP separation. He can fill up the box score. Again, the Raptor's pace worries me from a safety standpoint, but Harris can be a double/double on any given night.

Also consider Kawhi Leonard

 

Power Forward

Zach Randolph - FD 7800 DK 7100
You saw this one coming right? Like from a mile away right? What's not to love here? He'll have an advantage over whoever the Lakers throw at him in the low post between Carlos Boozer or Ed Davis. The Lakers are allowing 23% more scoring than average to opposing power forwards. That's a healthy advantage for Z-Bo as he works the blocks. With the state of power forward tonight, and the lack of big money options, I think you see Randolph as an insanely high percentage start. I don't think he's the lock of all locks to hit value so fading him in GPPs could work out in your favor. But don't get away from him in cash games at all. No one else will be.

LaMarcus Aldridge - FD 9100 DK 8800
Honestly, I don't love this play. But on sites like FanDuel, where you need to play two power forwards, I don't mind the idea of grabbing pretty great value everywhere else and then overspending a little on a guy like Lamarcus. Because there are very few other options that don't really make me squeamish it is totally reasonable to play some of the cheaper shooting guards and small forwards and pay up here. He's been his usual self this season scoring and rebounding. With the Blazers without Batum I think even more falls on his shoulders tonight so the usage should be there. Charlotte's been below average in terms in opposing power forwards scoring so there is some chance he piles it on. Though they play so slow the upside might be a bit limited.

Serge Ibaka - FD 8000 DK 7400
Kind of fits in the same category of like-don't-love as Aldridge above. Milwaukee's been real bad against opposing power forwards this season and Ibaka has a really nice opportunity to blow it out of the box with rebounds. Playing him mostly to get the money is though pairing he and Aldridge is a way to fade Z-Bo.

Consider Nick Collison and Ed Davis as pure punt-types
 

Center

Nikola Vucevic - FD 8300 DK 8400
You thought I was going to put Marc Gasol here first didn't you? You thought you had figured out the pattern? Well, at center I think I don't have to instantly default to the dudes playing the Lakers. Vuce actually makes the decision a bit closer. He's gone full on manimal at times this season and is averaging a crazy 12 rebounds a game. The matchup with Toronto isn't completely ideal though they've been below average in allowing opposing centers to rebound. I really like him for cash games especially if you are concerned with Memphis just crushing the Lakers. I think the blowout is a little more difficult to avoid at some of the other positions, but at center Vuce makes a solid hedge.

Marc Gasol - FD 7900 DK 7500
Speaking of the Grizz. That didn't take long for me to get to one of their dudes. Gasol is a good play tonight, but you should know the one area the Lakers have had success is in stopping the opposing center from scoring. It's still early in the season so these numbers aren't the total truth, but centers are scoring 25% less than league average against them. This is probably mostly because every other position is scoring at ridiculous clips and there isn't enough to go around. But whatever. Numbers are numbers.

Consider Jordan Hill who is still underpriced even with the terrible matchup against the Grizzlies.

 
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