Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings 11/14/14

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Going at this a little bit differently tonight.

Hi. So if you're new here, there's nothing to see here. If you're a regular reader, you'll notice quite quickly that we're deviating from the normal course for this article. Why? Well, as I was doing my research, a couple of themes started cropping up. Basically, guys playing against the same teams kept jumping off the page. So instead of tell you 50 different times how the Lakers suck against this or that position, I figured I'd just rank the plays from those given games. We good?

Okay.

Spurs vs. Lakers

Boris Diaw - FD 4400 DK 4200
Danny Green - FD 4300 DK 4300
I'm starting with the cheap guys for a simple and obvious reason. This one has all the makings of a game where Pop takes an easy win and runs the less crucial guys for a significant amount of time. Duncan in particular has played 34 minutes a game for his last 3 games, and I'd be shocked if Diaw didn't get more like 25-30 minutes instead of the 20-25 he has been getting. Likewise for Green - there's just no reason for the Spurs to run Manu out there for any significant period of time, and with Belinelli ruled out for Friday's game, that leaves Green to cover wing duties.

The rest of the Spurs starters

Listen, if you're a gambling man, I don't mind taking a run at Kawhi Leonard tonight. If Pop decides to give Kawhi his full minutes while resting the rest of the big names, he'll be getting a ton of looks at the basket. The Lakers' up and down style is perfect for racking up points, and Wes Johnson simply won't be able to prevent Kawhi from doing anything.

Likewise, on the off chance that Parker plays, he'll have the most favorable match-up of any Spur in Jeremy Lin. If the Lakers are knocking down 3s or something and keeping pace, Parker could put up an absurd line compared to the price you have to pay for him.

Lakers you can consider

Jordan Hill? With the possibility of Duncan playing reduced minutes, Hill easily has the best upside of any of his teammates. A Green/Diaw/Hill stack leaves you some interesting possibilities for spending elsewhere.

Rockets vs. 76ers

After watching the absolutely horrid display the Sixers put on last night, it's hard to imagine them staying in any game ever again. Let's break down a few things that could happen to help things go right for you here.

The cheap punt guy

Kostas Papanikolaou - FD 4200 DK 4000
Our projection system like Kostas simply based on his projection and the minutes he's been playing. If this game gets out of hand (and it should), Papanikolaou should see increased run against a team that's allergic to playing defense. Something like his huge game against Miami (where he scored 27 FanDuel points in 37 minutes) is absolutely in play here.

The Stars

If you're hell-bent on playing the stars in this game, our projection system prefers Dwight Howard to James Harden. The reason? Harden's been playing a ton of his minutes, and thus a lot of his upside has been bilked out of his overall price. It would be very surprising to see Harden play his full 38-40 minutes, and while he's paid off his prices in 30ish minutes against crappy teams, he's also killed some owners in those games as well. I prefer Dwight because the Sixers have legitimately no answer for his athleticism, and he should be the chief beneficiary of all of the bricks flying off the glass.

I'd also consider Isaiah Canaan, simply because I don't think he'll sit as much as the stars do if this game is out of hand.

The Sixers

No one? I mean it's odd to say there are "too many mouths to feed" on a team that just scored 70 points against a less than elite defense, but here we are. The one guy I'd consider is Tony Wroten. With MCW back, Wroten's minutes shouldn't suffer too badly in a blow out. His playing so few minutes on Thursday was much more a result of his foul trouble than the game script.

Moving on with our lives

Shall we? I'll give you a main pick or two from all the other games as well as another guy to consider.

 

Point Guard

Donald Sloan - FD 5500 DK 5200
In some order, the most valuable things to a daily fantasy basketball owner are A) how often a dude is on the court and B) how often said dude has the ball in his hands. While talent-wise Sloan is the chairman of the "just-a-guy" club, he's playing 30+ minutes and isn't afraid to let the ball fly. What I like about him most, actually, is the way he's in there scrapping for boards. A point guard who can snag 5 boards a game will be pretty safe in most cases, and if his wings can find their stroke again, big games are always a possibility. On a night where there are some high upside superstars to consider, Sloan is interesting once again.

Also considered:
Rajon Rondo - FD 8500 DK 8500
Reggie Jackson - FD 8100 DK 7600
If you're considering paying up at PG today, these are my guys. Both have usage rates north of 24%, which I find utterly fascinating considering their differing situations. If you want safety, the play is easily Jackson - guy has played 40+ minutes in every single game he's played this season. Just tough to have much of a downside if that's the case. For upside? Give me Rondo. The Cavs have allowed the 3rd most points to opposing PGs this season, and Rondo will love torching the all-sizzle and no steak Kyrie Irving.

 

Shooting Guard

Evan Fournier - FD 5600 DK 5800
He's a guy our projection system believed in all along, so hopefully you came along for the ride with us. The minutes are absolutely legit, here - he's playing 35+ minutes per game unless something crazy happens, and there's no reason to think that won't continue with both Lawson and Foye battling injuries. The one red flag is the shooting % - he just won't shoot 50% all year - but he won't need to with this opportunity. The price will climb 10% if he plays this many minutes for another week. Love him against a Milwaukee team that can't seem to figure out their rotations.

Tyreke Evans - FD 7600 DK 7700
Evans is another guy our system has had its eyes on this season. The reason? Safety. Evans has put up 4x points per dollar (FanDuel) in all but one game this season, and the assists he has been able to generate from the small forward position have been truly impressive. While Anthony Davis Beast Mode is going to lap up a lot of Pels possessions, Tyreke is just a few Brow fouls away from putting up a monster. Wiggins is a competent defender, but I think Tyreke will also draw some attention from the poo-poo platter of lesser defenders on the Wolves, and Minny has been equally generous (24th in the league) against both SGs and SF this season anyway.

Also considered: Kentavious Caldwell Pope and Anthony Morrow. Look for any news around how many minutes Morrow will play.

 

Small Forward

AKA

Punt City

Chris Copeland - FD 5600 DK 5900
Solomon Hill - FD 5100 DK 5000
Shawn Marion - FD 3900 DK 4200
Jeremy Lamb - FD 5200 DK 4500
Your guess is as good as mine. All of these guys are playing big minutes in relatively crappy situations. I ranked them above in order of safety. It's easy to think of guys like this as super-risky given their talent level, but like Sloan, simply being out on the court a ton is going to allow opportunities to fall into their laps. I like the Indiana guys best just due to the consistency of their playing time, and Lamb worries me the most with his simply horrific shooting recently.

Punting not your thing?
Tobias Harris is the guy I'd look at here. He can obviously disappear on you, but no one at the SF position has as much upside on a points per dollar basis tonight. It's not without risk, but the reward could be tremendous if he posts a classic Tobias double double.

 

Power Forward

Channing Frye - FD 5000 DK 5200
Oh boy, was it ever a good feeling when I got a text from Doug 2 nights ago simply saying: FRYE EVERYWHERE! We had both panicked put him in everywhere while waiting in "Is Darren Collison playing?" Hell, and he showed what he can do when the match-up is right. Well here we are yet again. Milwaukee has allowed the 5th most points to the Power Forward position this year, and they really aren't staffed to follow Frye around the perimeter. The Magic coaching staff has been talking about actively wanting to get Frye more involved, and if last game was any indicator, they're serious about it.

Jared Sullinger - FD 6800 DK 7000
Man-crush alert: Sullinger is one of my favorite current NBA players. Why? Because I just love his old man, below the rim game. I'm being serious here. Guy just uses every ounce of talent to be quite a good NBA player, and I love him for it. I also think his lack of sex appeal leaves him heartily underpriced for what he can do out there. While the Cavs have some sharp defenders on their team, one of them does not play power forward, and I think Sullinger will eat Love alive on the post. With Green drawing Lebron coverage, I think the Celts will lean on Sully even more than usual.

Also considered: Duh. Anthony Davis. Guy is posting Herculean upside, and if you're saving other places, it's probably to play him.
 

Center

Roy Hibbert - FD 6700 DK 7300
If our projection system could talk, it would scream "I TOLD YOU ALL ABOUT ROY HIBBERT! YOU'RE WELCOME!" And it's true. With Indiana's starting lineup looking like a D league squad, Hibbert is the one legitimate NBA starter. Throw out the one random knee bruise game and the guy has been a monster - paying more than 7x on this price three times this year. Now, there are times to be cautious with Hibbert. If he draws the wrong guy covering him, he can struggle. The good news for us? Denver doesn't have those guys. They're 27th in the league against opposing Cs this year.

Also considered: Vucevic, Al Jefferson.

 
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