Daily Fantasy Football Picks for Week 12 - FanDuel, DraftKings, Draftday, and Draftster

If week 10 was weird, week 11 was from the twilight zone. We managed to cash our double-ups with a QB who had the worst game of his career (Stafford), and a WR who wouldn't have paid off any price (Calvin Johnson). Another one of the weirder weeks in memory, but thankfully we hit all the surrounding pieces to make it a nice week anyway!

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Quarterbacks

Andrew Luck - FD 10300 DK 9700 DD 17700 DFSTR
Andrew Luck hasn't thrown for fewer than 300 yards since September 15th. As I watch the snow fall down, that feels like a long time ago. Listen - Luck is the safest fantasy QB in the world, and I suspect it isn't even close. With the injury to Ahmad Bradshaw, I think the Colts will maintain or even build upon their incredibly pass-heavy approach, and the Jags (26th in the league against the pass) don't pose much of a threat. He was even able to throw for 300 yards with Revis crushing TY Hilton. Luck will be in all my cash games.

Drew Brees - FD 9000 DK 8200 DD 14600 DFSTR 7300
Is Drew Brees done? Is our projection system throwing good money after bad? I guess that's for you to decide, but the reason I'm still including him in the picks is as follows: The dude is completing almost %70 of his passes this year. That'd be his 3rd best completion percentage ever, by the way. With the combination of random red-zone turnovers, receiver drops, and some red-zone activity going toward the RBs, Brees has seen his fantasy value dwindle. But I'm ditching the narrative and going with the numbers - I think Brees bounces back in a big way against Baltimore and their 21st ranked pass defense.

Russell Wilson - FD 8500 DK 7600 DD 14050 DFSTR 6800
Wilson makes for an interesting play on a week-in, week-out basis, because so much of his value is tied up in what he can do with his legs. But you know something? I don't really care. Sure, he's taking on the team with the league's best record, but even after containing Stafford and the Lions last week, they're the 4th worst team in the league against the pass. What I like about Wilson in this one is that his offense is not as reliant upon a #1 WR as the Lions are. Patrick Peterson rose to the challenge to take on Megatron, but he can't have quite so big an impact against a Seattle team that spreads it around. I think Seattle will be heavily invested in winning this one, and that Arizona's success against running backs pushes the ball into Wilson's hands more than usual.

Jay Cutler - FD 8800 DK 7700 DD 13050 DFSTR 8100
Looking for a wild man with Herculean upside and colossal downside? Look no further than Jay Cutler! Sure, Cutler can put up a stinker with the best of them, but hear me out. Tampa Bay is coming off of a week where everything went right for them defensively, but they've still allowed the third most passing yards in the league. With Alson Jeffery and Brandon Marshall finally firing on all cylinders, I think this is just the game to take Cutler in a GPP format.

Also considered: Philip Rivers

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Running Backs

Jamaal Charles - FD 9100 DK 7900 DD 14150 DFSTR
Thursday night slates are very interesting this week. My contention is that Charles will be an absolutely through the roof start, and for good reason. He ripped up an excellent run defense in Seattle, the Chiefs are passing less than ever, and the Raiders are horrendous against the run. The only thing to consider here is the tale of Jeremy Hill from a few weeks ago. Hill was a 70% start in GPPs on FanDuel against the Browns, and stunk to high heaven. If Charles doesn't pay off his huge upside, fading him could be interesting. I'll be playing him in the bulk of my squads, though, and all of my cash games.

DeMarco Murray - FD 9000 DK 8500 DD 14500 DFSTR 8900
Ah, it's been a while since I could play you, Demarco Murray. Murray has become something of a forgotten man as his workload has "dipped" into more reasonable levels. But even in the last three weeks, the minimum number of times he's touched the ball is 23. The reason I love him here? The men in blue. They have the dubious distinction of allowing the most yards per game on the ground this season, and I think Murray converts those 23-25 touches into huge yards and a couple of scores. The lack of scores recently is an aberration - Murray is one of the most used players in the league in the red zone.

Arian Foster - FD 8700 DK 8600 DD 15600 DFSTR 4500
Alfred Blue - FD 7200 DK 5600 DD 6400 DFSTR 3800
Man, I'd really prefer that this would be Alfred Blue, since I think RB success in Houston is more a result of opportunity than talent, but either way - I'm going to seriously consider playing a Texan RB this weekend. The combination of the Texans not trusting Ryan Mallett and Cincinnati's 5th worst run defense is just too good to be true.

Justin Forsett - FD 7700 DK 6500 DD 10500 DFSTR 6300
Forsett is an interesting guy, because he's simultaneously the clear #1 RB in an offense that vastly prefers the run, but also in a serious time share in the red zone. His lack of usage inside the 10 yard line makes him a little risky, but the Ravens have done an excellent job of helping Forsett to punch it in from further than ten yards away this season (he did so twice again last week). While this is probably one of those "better lucky than good" situations, I'll still take the safety of Forsett at a very reasonable price against a Saints team that the Ravens will have every incentive in the world to slow things down against.

Keep an eye on... The CJ Anderson situation. If it's clear by the end of the week that he's the number 1 back, he's an "all systems go" play against a Miami team that has done an excellent job of slowing down opposing passing games this season.

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Wide Receivers

Ooh, it was fun scrolling through the names we picked in our week 11 picks and week 11 sleepers at the WR position. We missed Mike Evans (gulp), but nailed just about everyone else - picking Calvin Johnson excepted! Let's hope for the same luck this week!

Brandon Marshall - FD 8300 DK 7100 DD 11950 DFSTR 7700
For me, it's shaping up to be a week to go cheap at wide receiver. A lot of the elite guys either have tough matchups (Megatron, Demaryius), or haven't been seeing as many looks recently (Jordy Nelson). So I'm happy to take Marshall, who proved that he has top tier upside last week, against a Bucs team that's gotten smoked by WR1s this season. Well, the Bucs will have their hands full against Jeffery and Marshall this week - and while it's a point of curiosity for me that Jeffery was targeted 17 times to Marshall's 10 last week, I'll take Marshall's increased red zone usage and steady 10 targets per week on a cheaper price. Can't kill you for going Jeffery, though.

Cecil Shorts - FD 6300 DK 5400 DD 7500 DFSTR 5600With Allen Robinson sadly breaking his foot, Shorts becomes the logical inheritor of a lot of the looks and production that was going Shorts' way. While the Jags have relied a bit more on the run recently, I suspect they won't have that luxury against the league's best offense in week 12. This one comes down to price and opportunity. Shorts was seeing ~8 targets a game with Robinson out, and if he and Hurns split those targets going forward, you're looking at a guy who could get a 30-50% bump in production. I think it's a safe way to fill a cheap WR slot with nearly guaranteed production.

Andrew Hawkins - FD 6200 DK 4900 DD 9650 DFSTR 3700If our projection system could talk, it would be crowing to high heaven about Andrew Hawkins. In his last 4 games, Hawkins has scored 2 touch downs, averaged 9.7 targets, and averaged more than 80 yards per game. The highest targets he saw in that time came last week (13). He's clearly the Browns #1 receiver, for what that's worth, and even the jump in price doesn't mean a whole heck of a lot when we're still down in the bargain bin. It's no longer an absurd price, but still a very reasonable one for a guy who is the WR1 against the league's worst pass defense this week.
Note: Lol, forgot Josh Gordon was coming back this week. Obviously he'll draw some targets away from Andrew Hawkins, which tempers my enthusiasm for this recommendation somewhat - but I'll still play Hawkins as a cheap WR with pretty decent upside if Gordon doesn't come back and play every single snap or in "the greatest shape of his life."

Dez Bryant - FD 8900 DK 8100 DD 13050 DFSTR 7500
Because I know SOME of you are going to spend up at WR no matter what I say. Be warned, like a lot of high priced WRs, Dez can absolutely disappear on you from time to time. But the infrastructure is there for him to put up monster weeks, the way he did last week. His targets have actually dipped slightly recently, but he's still averaging 11.5 targets in his last 6 games, and while I think the Cowboys will look to just run all over the G-men, Dez is clearly the guy if they decide to put it in the air. So why am I not even higher on him? I'm just the littlest bit concerned that Rodgers-Cromartie, a bigger CB, will be able to stop a few of those "freak athleticism" plays that shorter CBs have been unable to. If I'm paying for WR, though, I'll pay for Dez.

Odell Beckham Jr. - FD 7500 DK 6100 DD 11400 DFSTR 6600
Well, here's a guy our projection system and I have been terrible on this season! While our system continues to prefer Rueben Randle on a strict points per dollar basis, it's clear that Beckham is the guy the Giants see as their conventional #1 receiver. And for good reason, my God. Since their bye week, ODB has averaged well over 100 yards and 11 targets per game. The only thing holding him back from being truly elite has been the scores - but he's actually getting more red zone looks than you might think. This sure has the makings of an "Oh, I don't have Odell Beckham anywhere? Cross me off for winning my GPPs" week.

Also considered: TY Hilton. Though it's not totally clear that he's a true WR1, the Jags are THAT bad against the pass. It's just to tough to pay these prices for the guy.

 

Tight Ends

Rob Gronkowski - FD 7900 DK 7900 DD 15150 DFSTR 7200
GRONKGRONKGRONKGRONK. The twitter outrage over Gronk not getting in the end zone last week was blessedly cured by a late score from Gronk, and I don't think it was happenstance. Look - the Pats were clearly sending a message last week. You don't run a dude 38 times if you aren't. Now that the message has been sent - "Waste time preparing for our run game!" - I think Gronk goes back to getting his full allotment of targets. In a world where you never know who the next decent tight end will be, and where Jimmy Graham isn't quite himself, and a lot of the expensive WRs aren't look appealing? You pay for Gronk. That's just what you do.

Coby Fleener - FD 5400 DK 5200 DD 9150 DFSTR 5300
Or, maybe you don't. Fleener has been a monster the last two weeks, and with Dwayne Allen out, he seems to be the inheritor to the Dallas Clark Colts TE who gets a ton of looks. If you're not going to spend up on Gronk, just do me a favor and play Fleener against the Jags and their god-awful pass defense.

That's it. I won't recommend another tight end. Play one of these two guys.

 

Kickers

Just a strategy note on kickers, since I figure I'll share what's working well for me this season.

I've been taking kickers against teams that don't have spectacular defenses in decent weather conditions. I don't look at the kicker's individual "skill" at all, just opportunity. Typically kicker will be the very last spot I fill, and while there are situations I'll avoid (I wouldn't play kickers against Seattle, for instance, or any team that's a 6.5 point or more underdog), I think you can justify playing just about any other kicker in a GPP format especially. Don't sweat this too much - just pick a guy that fits in with the rest of what you want to do and go from there.

 

Defense & Special Teams

Buffalo Bills
On the off chance that Michael Vick is still an incredible turn over machine.. let me start over. On the on chance that Michael Vick is still an incredible turn over machine, I'll take an excellent defense against him for both safety AND upside.

Kansas City Chiefs
What happens when the team that allows the fewest passing yards in the league faces off against the league's worst QB? Does an Angel get its wings? Does it cause a hurricane in the Indian Ocean? Does it just lead to 0 points being scored? I am not sure the upside is all there, but given how the Chiefs can suck the life out of opposing possessions, I expect the Raiders to score somewhere between 0 and 1 time next week.

Because you cheap people will go cheap no matter what
Tennessee Titans
I'm actually fairly bullish on Sanchez and the Birds this week, but it's clear that opposing teams are going to have elite defensive upside as long as he's under center. This is a significantly risky move - you're basically just paying for the turnovers that are likely to come - but the amount of possessions the Eagles take is a good thing for defensive upside while we still live in a world that counts defensive touch downs. Not for the faint of heart, though - this one could turn out REALLY badly.

Give a follow on Twitter @dailyfantasysr and @dougnorrie.

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