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Basketball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice

12/05/2014
James Davis

Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and Draftster 12/5/14

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Point Guard

Kyle Lowry - FD 9100 DK 9600 DFSTR 7400
Since Derozan has been out of the lineup, Lowry has posted both usage AND assist rates over 30%. That is absolutely ridiculous. He's the entire Raptors offense right now. As we've written in basically every picks article since the season began, Kyrie is a wreck of a defender, and Cleveland is 29th against the point guard position this season. This is a terrific spot to take Lowry, even with the continually increasing price.

Greivis Vasquez - FD 4800 DK 4600 DFSTR 4400
I don't want to belabor the point for you - but since he's been Toronto's starting shooting guard, Vasquez has posted a fantasy point total at least 5x this price in every single game. Cleveland is a fine match-up for shooting guards, and there's no reason why this production won't continue.

Mo Williams - FD 5500 DK 6000 DFSTR 4500
Zach LaVine - FD 3600 DK 4200 DFSTR 3500
Figure out who is starting, and play them. Both are absolutely reasonably priced for what they could do in a starting role, and either should see very heavy minutes if they are the starter. While Mo is clearly safer, Lavine will have considerable upside on these bare bones prices against a Houston back court that hasn't been quite as tough against the point guard position as they were last year.

Also considered: Russell Westbrook
 

Shooting Guard

Rodney Stuckey - FD 4800 DK 4600 DFSTR 4600
Stuckey sidled into the starting lineup, and posted a very solid 16/6/5 performance. This is more than enough to pay off these still punt-esque prices, and he's capable of more if his shot is really clicking on a given night. Sactown has allowed the 3rd most points against shooting guards this season - I think this could be our lowest price for the rest of the season on Stuckey.

James Harden - FD 10400 DK 11200 DFSTR 9400
With Dwight continuing to be shelved, Harden is seeing a ton of shots and general opportunity within the Houston offense. With 55 fantasy points or more in three of his last five games, Minnesota's 25th ranked SG defense shouldn't be scaring anyone. Harden should be a lock to pay off these prices unless Minnesota fails to hold on until the 4th quarter.

Arron Afflalo - FD 5200 DK 5600 DFSTR 5000
In the really safe but rather boring division, Afflalo has paid off his price in 5 of his last 7 contests, and while Washington has been quite good against the shooting guard position this year, I believe that serves more to limit his upside than it does to lower his floor, which should be in that 21-23 fantasy point range.

 

Small Forward

Rasual Butler - FD 4200 DK 3700 DFSTR 3000
Listen - I'm not the biggest fan of Butler on a strictly talent basis, but facts are facts. Since Pierce has begun to struggle with his injury, Butler is averaging 26 minutes and has crested paying off 6x this FanDuel price in 3 of the last four games. That's a ton of upside from the small forward position, and if Pierce is questionable once again, Butler moves into the "must start" territory for me.

Trevor Ariza - FD 6200 DK 6500 DFSTR 5600
Mr. Safety for the small forward position. The guy is as likely as anyone in the entire league to go out and play 40 minutes on a given night, and this gives him opportunity security that you pretty much can't find elsewhere - especially at this price and this position. Minnesota's 24th ranked defense against small forwards is pretty much just a deal sweetener.

Al-Farouq Aminu - FD 3700 DK 4300 DFSTR 3500
If Dirk misses another game on Friday, Aminu becomes a fantastic play. Aminu posted a 13/5 with 3 blocks and a steal against Milwaukee, paying his prices here absolutely going away. If Dirk plays he becomes essentially unplayable, but this could be a monster opportunity that could allow you to spend up elsewhere.

Also considered: Gordon Hayward

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Power Forward

Amar'e Stoudemire - FD 5500 DK 5600 DFSTR 5200
Just take a look at what Amar'e has done recently - he's basically averaged 20 and 10, and got the nod as the starting center in the match-up with Cleveland. He's playing crunch time, and is a candidate for extended minutes when he's rolling well. Charlotte's been quite tough against PFs this year, but in situations where the price hasn't caught up to the opportunity, that sort of thing means a heck of a lot less.

David West - FD 6700 DK 6600 DFSTR 6200
When Doug and I were setting lineups last night, he insisted I play West because "at some point, the minutes are going to fully be there." Well, it certainly looks like we're headed in that direction. West topped 30 fantasy points and 30 minutes in Thursday's match-up, and he could aim even higher against Sacramento's 22nd ranked defense against power forwards.

Cody Zeller - FD 4500 DK 4700 DFSTR 4200
Zeller posted a very solid 12 and 8 in his start on Wednesday, and he's flashed considerable safety and upside as the Hornets join the long line of people that have fallen out of love with Marvin Williams. Even with New York's slow pace, they're exactly in the middle of the pack against power forwards this year. With the Knicks going a little bit smaller in the front court recently, this could be a tremendous opportunity.

Also considered: Jared Sullinger, Kevin Love

 

Center

Marcin Gortat - FD 7300 DK 7300 DFSTR 6300
Gortat has been on an absolute tear recently - averaging 20 points, 12 boards, and 2 blocks in his last three games. That's like, really good. Denver's defense against centers has been a total mess this season - they're ranking 27th against them - and I think the pattern of the increased minutes and killer production continues.

Jordan Hill - FD 6600 DK 6500 DFSTR 6200
Well, he's got 2 no-shows, and two games where he paid 6x his FanDuel price in his last 4 games. Which Hill will show up on a given night is anyone's guess, but Boston's center situation is a little bit uncertain, and when Hill's right - his upside at this price is tough to find elsewhere from the center position. This is only a GPP play for me (I'll play Gortat in all my cash games), but Hill makes for an intriguing option, ESPECIALLY if you are stacking against the Lakers.

also considered: Anderson Varejao, Chris Bosh

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1 Visitor Comment

  1. Quick Question: Cle is 29th vs PG? I believe it, I just can’t find any sites to show it. Everything says they are 3 best in points given up to PG, and even on a per minute basis still middle of the pack.

    Lowry is still a great pick because of his situation, but just wanted to see if I was missing something.

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