Basketball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice

Doug Norrie

Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and Draftster 1/7/14

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Point Guard

Chris Paul - FD 9900 DK 9700 DFSTR 8400
For as bad as they are, the Lakers have actually done a decent job, all things considered, of hanging in games. Sure they have blowouts on their resume. After all, they can’t play defense. But they do actually score and as they proved the other night against the Blazers, if they can hang around long enough the other team’s point guard benefits enormously. They get absolutely destroyed by the other squad’s one, allowing something in the range of 20% more than league average scoring to the position. Blowouts are a risk for sure. And the line on this one is huge. But Paul’s been killing it of late and he has the best matchup by a mile.

Jarrett Jack - FD 6000 DK 6500 DFSTR 4600
This is strictly in play only if Deron Williams is out again. Jack plays heavy minutes at the one when D-Will sits and he crushed it the other night against the Mavericks. That game went to overtime but Jack had more than paid his price in regulation. Again, I’m really only considering this if he is the lone ballhandler on the squad, but if so he is in a fantastic matchup with the Celtics who play at a breakneck pace with very little in the way of defense.

Derrick Rose - FD 6900 DK 6600 DFSTR 6200
One of these nights he is going get out there and not shoot like 35% or less from the field and it's going to be seriously on. Like seriously. Do you get how serious I am? It's a shame his struggles in the short term as he's turning in some horrific shooting performances, but I do believe he'll pull out of it. His last five games have been a travesty, but this is why we play DFS: to get guys at value dollars. That's where Rose is now. The minutes are there and so is the matchup. Others will be off of him, but I think you can trot him into lineups.

Elfrid Payton - FD 5200 DK 5300 DFSTR 4400
He very much appears to be the starting PG for the Magic and I think they'll stick with him for the foreseeable future. He's somewhat of a feast or famine play considering the production and there's some risk always. Ty Lawson's been chewed up by some score-first point guards, which Payton is not. But Elfrid's afro and minutes are there. At these prices that's more than enough to get him in against a defensively-challenged squad as I think he could put up some better than average assist totals.

Consider Matthew Dellavedova if Kyrie Irving sits again and Russell Westbrook is almost always in play.


Shooting Guard

Victor Oladipo - FD 6500 DK 5800 DFSTR 6200
He's one of my favorite guys in this price range to target in cash games because unlike many of the other shooting guards, he isn't totally reliant on scoring to hit value. Which is nice in this value range. As I stated for Payton, Denver has some big time defensive struggles with shooting guards as they allow 10% more than league average scoring per 48 minutes to the position. I think you'll see 'Dipo as a moderately high cash game play even on this big slate because the matchup is fairly choice.

Eric Bledsoe - FD 8900 DK 9100 DFSTR 7600
We picked Afflalo the other night against the Timberwolves much in part because Minny really struggles with this position. Afflalo obliged with a 34/2/2 line, taking 18 shots and basically scoring at will against Shabazz Muhammad. This isn’t news, but Bledsoe is much, much better than Afflalo. Of course there’s a price difference, but in Bledsoe has a really high floor in this one. The game in Minnesota helps possibly avoid the risk of a crazy blowout and I’m going to target him in cash games because the minutes and the points appear rather locked in. He can even weather a poor shooting night because he does so many other things on the court.

Giannis Antetokounmpo - FD 6300 DK 6600 DFSTR 4800
The Bucks are playing somewhat of a hybrid rotation now that Parker is done for the season. But Giannis has been getting the minutes consistently (cross your fingers always with this crew) and if that run is there then you want to get him in lineups against a defensively challenged Philly crew who struggle with the two and the three.

Bradley Beal - FD 6500 DK 6300 DFSTR 5700
The Knicks are total garbage right now (and probably for the foreseeable future) and they have some major problems defending opposing guards, the two spot especially. As will be a theme tonight, I am worried about this game being over by the middle of the third quarter because the Knicks really can’t score at all. But Beal could be in line for a nice line even in limited run.

Consider Jamal Crawford and J.J. Redick against the Lakers and Tim Hardaway if you think he just takes every shot for the lowly Knicks now.


Small Forward

Shabazz Muhammad - FD 6500 DK 6400 DFSTR 5100
Andrew Wiggins - FD 6400 DK 6400 DFSTR 5000
We ran these guys almost universally across the board on Monday night and it did a great deal to stem the Waiters disaster. Shabazz, in particular was a solid play as he put up numbers as a very low percentage start. This had enormous value on that particular slate and our system still sees him coming in as a great buy tonight against Phoenix. Wiggins falls in the same category and both are similar in price. I said it the other night and I'll say it again. I think you can run these guys together on two SF sites. The situation is a little different because the T-Wolves could get blitzed by the Suns. That's a problem. But in a situation where they stay close, it's almost definitely because of these two guys. Price is still right and Phoenix allows worse than league average scoring the two's and three's from opposing teams.

Wilson Chandler - FD 5700 DK 6000 DFSTR 5000
See him more as a GPP play considering the three pointer needs to be draining for him to hit maximum value. He can have supremely off nights that kill you. Even though the minutes are there from game-to-game the shots from beyond the arc are key to his value.

Tobias Harris - FD 6900 DK 7000 DFSTR 6400
Still very much like him on this slate as I think he's become somewhat of a forgotten player in the DFS world. Will never completely crush his price, Harris chips in enough and I like to target him against similarly weak teams where the Magic don't stand to get boat-raced. The Nuggets are weak defensively in the frontcourt and Harris could see better than average rebounding tonight.

Consider Trevor Ariza

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Power Forward

Kevin Love - FD 10100 DK 10700 DFSTR 7400
Tristan Thompson - FD 6600 DK 7000 DFSTR 4900
These plays are much more enticing (at least Love is) if Kyrie is sitting again. We saw in the game against the Sixers that the Cavs are content with him getting up every shot he can take when he’s the man on the floor. I mean really, what other option do they have? With Kyrie and Lebron sidelined, that’s a ton of shots missing from the offense. The Cavs are a mess right now of course, and honestly, could get blown out by Houston if they play anything close to what they did the other night against Philly. But for DFS purposes, they are playing such short-handed right now that these two guys should see heavy minutes almost regardless. The price has corrected some, but not enough. The volume should be there for both guys.

Blake Griffin - FD 10000 DK 10100 DFSTR 8900
What’s not to love here? The Lakers get killed by opposing everythings, power forwards included. As stated for CP3, the game needs to stay close for Blake to crush his number, but he’s so active in the offense now, especially from the passing end, that he is contributing in a way that almost (but totally) makes him blowout proof. I don’t mean that lightly. Additionally, the way Blakes rotations work out he’s nearly guaranteed in the range of 30 minutes because he tends to play the entire 3rd quarter of games before sitting the beginning of the fourth. This should lock in his low end run.

Nikola Mirotic - FD 5300 DK 5300 DFSTR 3000
With Dunleavy set to sit again Mirotic should stand to see 25+ minutes again tonight. He will be coming off the bench again for sure, but that doesn't mean the run won't be there. And he's been extremely productive when he get out on the court for long stretches. He will se more minutes at the three than the four and Utah is better there defensively. But Mirotic does cause matchup problems when he's out there because of his inside outside game.

Strongly consider Greg Monroe



You have some great opportunities to go cheap at center tonight. There are a number of interesting options that should shake out during the day depending on news that crops up. I am going to go rapid-fire through some of these guys and if/when I would consider rostering them.

Gorgui Dieng - FD 7000 DK 7300 DFSTR 5800
The Suns are the worst team in the league at controlling opposing centers. They allow 15% more scoring than league average and 13% more rebounding. Dieng makes for a solid cash game play in my opinion and has been real good of late.

Brook Lopez - FD 6600 DK 7700 DFSTR 5300
Very interesting considering his production. He started the other night with Garnett sitting out. No guarantee that happens again but even if he played, conservatively, 29 minutes then you are looking at a real nice cash game play against a below average Celtic frontcourt. He is coming in at a crazy low price following the injury and coming off the bench in the short term.

Jusuf Nurkic - FD 5000 DK 4900 DFSTR 3000
Low minutes/ insanely high production. I'm not positive he can keep up the scoring he's been doing in the short term, but as long as the minutes are increasing you can keep throwing him out there. Gets a ton of stuff done in a short period of time.

Rudy Gobert - FD 5200 DK 5900 DFSTR 4000
Here's to hoping Kanter sits out again and that Gobert bit enough people wrong the other night to keep his ownership percentage low. He had a rough matchup against Hibbert. Early fouls and some turnovers killed him early. Noah and company aren't slouches, but Gobert's price is still low enough to consider.

Zaza Pachulia - FD 5400 DK 5800 DFSTR 3900
Will consider rolling him out there again if Larry Sanders still isn't feeling the whole basketball thing.

If looking to spend up, look at Marc Gasol

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