Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and Draftster 1/11/15

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Point Guard

Darren Collison - FD 7300 DK 6900 DFSTR 6100
On a short slate, Collison looks to be the safest point guard for cash games around. It's just a combination of price and match-up. Collison is a pretty good play on most nights for unsexy but steady production - something like 4.5-5x on his FanDuel price. But tonight he draws the Cavaliers of Cleveland, they of the 3rd worst point guard defense in the league.

Damian Lillard - FD 9300 DK 9800 DFSTR 7300
I'd be tempted to call Lillard the safest play of the evening, but I'm semi-scared about the blowout in all honesty. But the upside. Oh, the upside! If Lillard gets his full run, anything is possible here. The Lakers are dead last when it comes to allowing fantasy points to opposing PGs, and Lillard will torch whichever of Lin or Price has the displeasure of trying to keep up. And he dropped almost 60 fantasy points against the Lakers a few days ago. So there's that.

Kyrie Irving - FD 8600 DK 8900 DFSTR 6800
With Lebron down, Kyrie is back to his old usage ways, and it's paying off handsomely for our DFS purposes. I suspect we'll see his price climb about 10% before Lebron returns, before leveling back down to this level when he's back. In close games Kyrie is playing 40+ minutes and paying 5x this FanDuel price. That's a way to get a healthy chunk in if you can find some salary relief elsewhere. Sacramento is basically a league average match-up, for what it's worth.

 

Shooting Guard

Wesley Matthews - FD 6000 DK 5800 DFSTR 5200
Wes is basically the Collison of shooting guards. He doesn't really go off, but he pays his price steadily on a day in, day out basis. The Lakers are dead last against this position as well, and on a night where shooting guard is as shallow as ever, Wes stands head and shoulders above them all.

Kyle Korver - FD 5100 DK 4900 DFSTR
So, here's the thing. You can make a case against every guy at the position tonight. Beal's inconsistent. Mclemore's minutes are getting jerked around. The case against Korver? Washington has allowed the 6th fewest points to opposing SGs, and he can really struggle against elite defenders like Beal. But in case games, I think he's my guy. Here's why. First, it's a game that's very unlikely to be a blow-out. Next, Korver's minutes are secure (and there's room for upside in the minutes department in close games or when he's on fire). Lastly, it's a chance to invest not a ton at a bad position to spend up elsewhere. I get that I probably shouldn't write Korver's resume or anything, but I think he makes a solid if unspectacular #2 option tonight.

Keep an eye on... Kobe Bryant. If he's out again, Ellington becomes a very solid value play. I know he laid an egg on this price on Friday, but getting salary relief on a short slate might mean being able to pay up for two expensive point guards. Given the lack of options, I'll probably do it.

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Small Forward

Nicolas Batum - FD 5900 DK 6000 DFSTR 5100
All about the Portland stack train. Toot, toot. Toot. So, the awkward thing tonight is that you aren't allowed to play 5 Blazers. Which will you drop? It's super tough, to me. Batum stunk it up against the Lakers the last time around, but that was as much chance as it was anything else. Lillard took some extra shots, Batum took a few less. Still, for both safety and upside, you could do a lot worse than grabbing an already reasonably priced player in the best possible match-up for his position.

DeMarre Carroll - FD 5200 DK 5200 DFSTR
Man! It feels like it's last season again. I don't think I've recommended Carroll since, but here we are! Carroll was routinely paying 4x-6x on this FanDuel price before running into the Memphis Buzzsaws, and he draws a much better match-up tonight against Washington's SF brigade. The Wiz are a fantastic defensive team against every position except SF, where they are league average. The Hawks could try and exploit this. I like Carroll as the safest of the SF options tonight.

Also considered: Our projection system likes Rudy Gay against the Lebron-less Cavs, but I'd prefer not to spend up at the position tonight if I can avoid it.

Power Forward

LaMarcus Aldridge - FD 10000 DK 10000 DFSTR 8800
It's rare that the highest dollar guy is also the highest points per dollar guy at a given position, which is pretty much what makes Aldridge a must-play tonight. He didn't crush the Lakers his last time around, but we can't judge too much based off of a one game sample. What we do know is that the Lakers are hopeless against PFs, and that Aldridge is one of the most productive players at his position in the whole world. And it's a short slate. Got to pay for him if you can afford it.

Nene Hilario - FD 5300 DK 5000 DFSTR
Short slate day, baby! You can't pay up and select every big money guy, tonight, so if you need to save a little bit at PF, Nene's looking kinda hot. He's paid better than 6x on this FanDuel price in his last two games, and Atlanta is pretty lousy against power forwards. It may feel more like a GPP play, but the relative safety Nene can bring in a good match-up might let you pay up for an expensive guy with a great match-up as well.

Kevin Love - FD 10000 DK 10100 DFSTR 7700
The usage has skyrocketed with Lebron out, and Love should dominate Sacramento's rotating cast of misfit PFs. They've allowed the 7th most fantasy points to power forwards, and are raw to the point of absurdity at PF. Could be a monster game, and Love is arguably safer than Aldridge if you're spooked about a blow-out.

Center

Chris Kaman - FD 4800 DK 4600 DFSTR 4800
Again, you aren't permitted to play 5 Blazers on FanDuel. So who's the odd man out? Super tough, for me. With the other decent options at center tonight, it might wind up being Kaman. He crushed the Lakers on this price the last time around (scoring nearly 30 fantasy points in 27 minutes), but he's a guy the Blazers will sit if it gets out of hand.

Marc Gasol - FD 8500 DK 8700 DFSTR
Listen, I kinda like Alex Len. But he's going to have his hands full as hell with Gasol. The big Spaniard's game log doesn't look too inspiring, but that's due to back to back foul trouble games on the heels of a couple of blowouts. It's really hard to imagine Gasol getting in foul trouble against Phoenix's uninspiring front court, so this might be an excellent time to snag him while others are soured.

Also considered: The Heat Centers. I kinda like Bosh in a nice match-up against DeAndre, and I'm very intrigued by what Hassan Whiteside can do at punt prices. If you want to squeeze Kaman out, Whiteside makes a very nice fill-in option.

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