Basketball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice

Doug Norrie

Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and Draftster 2/6/15

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Point Guards

Russell Westbrook - FD 11200 DK 10900 DFSTR 8900
This play is very much contingent on Durant sitting out again. We will have to monitor news throughout the day, but if Durant sits I think you can safely roll out Westbrook. He's shown that when he is the top dog, he's the top f#$%ing dog. Westbrook's usage rate nearly doubles when Durant sits, going from somewhere in the 20's to the mid 40's. It's nuts. And it isn't just the scoring. He does everything else too. Even with the high tag, if Durant sits find ways to save elsewhere and roll him.

Elfrid Payton - FD 5700 DK 5500 DFSTR 4800
Jacque Vaughn was fired as Magic coach yesterday. I'm not exactly sure that that means for the Magic rotations (it's definitely good for their team) but I have a feeling you start seeing Payton's minutes stick in the mid 30's as the Magic work to see what they have in the young guys. If nothing else, I just hope it means more steady rotations. The Magic picked a good time to fire their coach before going against the defense-less Lakers. Payton will roll against the worst team at defending opposing point guards.

Marcus Smart - FD 4900 DK 4600 DFSTR 4000
Brad Stevens and Celtics' brass look like they are going to keep rocking Smart in the starting point guard position and that has meant heavy minutes. He's played 41 and 37 the last two. If he continues to see anything like this kind of run then the price hasn't nearly caught up. It doesn't so much matter that he isn't a big scorer. Not with this kind of opportunity.

Mario Chalmers - FD 4900 DK 5000 DFSTR 4900
Just when I decided that Chalmers wasn't going to do anything with Wade out and that those usage bump numbers were an aberration, he goes and puts up 11 shots on his way to a 12/5/3 line. Not a fantastic matchup against the Spurs tonight, but he's still coming on the cheap side.

Consider Kyle Lowry

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Shooting Guards

James Harden - FD 10800 DK 10300 DFSTR 9300
Is one of the better (best) big money options tonight. If Durant is going and I don't roster Westbrook then Harden is almost definitely going to be finding his way into my lineups as the way to round out some of the cheaper value. In fact, there is enough savings to go around that starting he and Westbrook isn't out of the question at all. Look, Harden is Harden. I don't need to go through his superlatives. The Bucks are below average in defending shooting guards and Harden has a way of exposing even good defenses.

Jamal Crawford - FD 5200 DK 5000 DFSTR 5300
Redick was called pretty early before last night's game against the Cavs and it is looking like he might need some more time to get over his back issues. If this is the case then feel safe using Crawford again. He fits right into the starting lineup with the Clips and got up a bunch of shots last night even though the Clippers didn't play particularly well. Once a chucker, always a chucker and he'll keep it going tonight if J.J. sits again.

Kevin Martin - FD 6500 DK 5700 DFSTR 5600
Sure, you hate the matchup against the Grizzlies. I do too. But you have to really adore the minutes. Martin is fully back from injury and logging oodles of run. He's good for 15+ shots even if the T-Wolves get blown out and if they hand then you are really getting value. As much a price play as anything else as his tag hasn't crept up to normal yet after being on a minutes restriction for a bit.

Giannis Antetokounmpo - FD 6400 DK 6000 DFSTR 5400
Jason Kidd seems to finally be getting comfortable with a rotation he likes and that has meant big minutes for Alphabet. He isn't quite the deal he was a week ago when the minutes really started to round out, but I think he's in safe territory as he can score you points in all five categories on the regular. He only ever needed the consistent opportunity and it seems like it's there now. I might be coming around on thinking a Buck can be safe.

Strongly consider Jodie Meeks if KCP has to sit.

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Small Forwards

Tobias Harris - FD 6100 DK 5800 DFSTR 5900
The only thing I was waiting for with Harris was for him to return to the starting lineup and get back to his consistent role in the offense. That is the case now and with the Magic coaching change I think it will stick. This is a great spot for it to happen to as the Lakers are of course brutal on defense. His last two games have seen him average 20/7/5. He's still very affordable and the matchup is so choice. The Magic are bad too so it won't be the like they run the Lakers out of the gym.

Trevor Ariza - FD 5300 DK 5400 DFSTR 5000
Has an awesome game against the Bulls as he chipped in a bunch of scoring to go along with some other bits and pieces across the scorecard. Ariza can fall victim to big scoring Harden games as he'll disappear in the offense. He doesn't create on his own so he needs to be hitting the corner threes. But the price is very low and the minutes are there for the guy. He's a go again for me tonight.

C.J. Miles - FD 5000 DK 4000 DFSTR 4200
A super deal on DraftKings and in play on the other two sites. Miles is as streaky as they come and crazy injury prone. But he started last game and even survived some early foul trouble to come back in and pay.

Jared Dudley - FD 4600 DK 4600 DFSTR 3700
This, like many of the plays tonight, is contingent on the health of others. He's been playing with Ilyasova out and getting plenty of minutes. Was a bit of a dud (ley) last game against the Lakers, but don't that dissuade you. He was averaging about six three point attempts as a starter before the game against the Lakers.


Power Forwards

Going to be able to get some good money in here cheap for sure.
John Henson - FD 5100 DK 5600 DFSTR 4100
This, as is the theme tonight, is only if Pachulia is out again. Pachulia dressed last game which has me thinking he does see the court. But if not, get Henson in early and often. He's crept toward 30 minutes in regulation and even with the tougher matchup against the Rockets, the price is still in the sweet spot. He's a per minute beast and doesn't need a ton of run to pay this off.

Luis Scola - FD 3800 DK 3000 DFSTR 4000
With Ian Mahimni and LAvoy Allen both sitting with injury the Pacers are completely devoid of big men. Scola only needs to get about 25 minutes tonight to be in line to pay off and then some. Even though he won't be starting, I think this is one time you can consider playing a guy coming in off the bench. He's a minimum priced guy on DraftKings and I'll definitely be playing him there. On FanDuel it's a little closer, but he's still tops on the points per dollar list at the position (assuming 25 minutes).

Jason Smith - FD 4700 DK 5100 DFSTR 3700
He continues to play a big role in the offense for the Knicks and his minutes seem locked in right now. He passes well out of the post to go along with some scoring and rebounding. He's involved enough that I won't totally mind if Henson doesn't start because this is where I will immediately look. They are similarly priced so swapping is easy.

Jared Sullinger - FD 6600 DK 6500 DFSTR 6700
He's been a bad boy lately and keeps missing shootarounds, leading to him riding the pine. I know the Celtics want to get him in there, but dude isn't making it easy. If he keeps himself in check and gets the start against the Sixers then you have some real tough decisions at this position tonight. The Sixers are well below average defending opposing bigs and Sullinger will create matchup issues for them. Keep an eye out for his status leading into gametime.

Consider Chris Bosh, Carlos Boozer and Kenneth Faried



Hassan Whiteside - FD 8000 DK 8000 DFSTR 4700
At this point what can we even say about this guy? He's a first ballot Hall of Famer and possibly the greatest center ever to live. Of course I'm kidding (sort of) but man this run is just nuts. In his last five games Whiteside is averaging 17/15/4 (blocks - which are a little outlier-ish because of the huge 12 block game he had) but man oh man. I still think he's a value even at these prices, which is crazy to consider. The Spurs have struggled in keeping opposing centers off the glass and if the Heat can keep in this one (no guarantee) Whiteside has such a high floor. Can you believe I'm recommending an 8K Hassan Whiteside? Christmas time Doug would have thought this Doug was buts.

Roy Hibbert - FD 6100 DK 5500 DFSTR 5500
One big problem for Hibbert has been (from a fantasy perspective) the inconsistent minutes. That should work itself out tonight with Mahimni on the shelf. Hibbert is really the only viable center for the Pacers and expecting 30+ minutes isn't crazy. Not a great matchup against Mozgov, but his price is depressed thanks his herky jerky minutes.

Enes Kanter - FD 6000 DK 5900 DFSTR 5900
Phoenix is below average in basically every metric you can think of when it comes to defending opposing centers. Kanter is the kind of guy you wait around on to get in a solid matchup and then pounce on his depressed price. This is one of those situations. He will be under owned and I really like him as a separation play on a bigger slate.

Consider Tyler Zeller if he draws the start again. Also strongly consider Brook Lopez


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