Basketball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice

James Davis

Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and Draftster 2/08/15

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Point Guard

Ramon Sessions - FD 3500 DK 3000 DFSTR 3000
With Collison out until the all-star break in all likelihood, Sessions is the clear "must-play" guy of the day. It's simply matter of incorrect pricing. As of this writing (halftime of Saturday's game), Sessions is on pace to pay ~8x this price with a solid 30 minute rotation coming. Phoenix might whip the Collison-less Kings, but there's a super high floor for Sessions regardless.

Brian Roberts - FD 4900 DK 4600 DFSTR 3500
If you want some decent safety and a cheap escape from the position, there's always Roberts. While the price has climbed on him recently, he's been a steady source of 5x this FanDuel price in close games. While this is no easy feat for the Hornets, the Pacers should provide such an opportunity - and they're also allowing ~4% more fantasy points to opposing point guards this season.

Kyrie Irving - FD 8700 DK 8500 DFSTR 7300
Well, it's a GPP play simply due to the inevitable blow-out factor. But here's the case - the Lakers have allowed 23% more scoring to opposing point guards this season. 23%! That's a truly unreal number. And we've seen Kyrie happily hold on to the ball when he can get to the bucket. While there's a decent chance he goes for 3x this game, I'd argue that Kyrie has (by far) the highest upside of anyone in his price range today.

Also considered: The Derrick Rose/Elfrid Payton pair - if this game stays close for some reason, our projection system likes both of these guys for a potential break out game.


Shooting Guard

Austin Rivers - FD 3700 DK 3000 DFSTR 3000
Jamal Crawford - FD 5000 DK 5200 DFSTR 5400
In case you missed it, Austin Rivers got the start for the injured JJ Redick on Friday, clearly because he's Doc Rivers' son he's such an emerging star. Okay, you busted me. Rivers sucks. But! The price here is fantastic if he's really going to secure 30 minutes. Same goes for Crawford - if he starts I'd argue he's a must play. If he comes off the bench, he should still probably be priced about 10% higher. I'm guessing this game stays close, and if so, both of these guys should have no trouble paying value and then some, with Rivers being the higher upside guy simply due to the pricing considerations.

Wesley Matthews - FD 5900 DK 6000 DFSTR 5300
If you're looking for another consistent option, consider Wes Matthews. With Beverely harassing Lillard, Matthews should be able to build upon his recent streak of 3 straight games paying 4.5x this FanDuel price. Harden's much ballyhooed defensive improvement still has opposing shooting guards putting up 4% more points than league average against the Rockets, and in a close game I expect Matthews to get his full run of minutes and plenty of looks.

Home run play - Tony Snell. He played 29 minutes with Dunleavy out, and if he gets similar run against Tobias Harris, he could easily put up another 25 fantasy points in this one.

Also considered: If you're spooked by Crawford, Korver could make for an interesting play in another game that should stay close.

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Small Forward

Trevor Ariza - FD 5300 DK 5600 DFSTR 5100
Ariza has gone back to pre-Brewer trade minutes, and has been rewarding anyone who's been paying attention. He's averaged ~33 fantasy point in his last three games - good for 6x on this price. Not bad for a terrible position to fill on a nightly basis. What's more - this should be a close game, helping Ariza to fulfill the upper end of his minutes against a Portland squad that's allowed a league average number of fantasy points to opposing small forwards this season.

Tobias Harris - FD 6100 DK 6300 DFSTR 5900
While you were sleeping, Harris has shot back up to an elite play at the small forward position. He's played at least 38 minutes in each of his last three games, he's playing both the 3 and the 4, and he's on back to back games of paying 7x on this price. Tony Snell isn't an awful defender (assuming Dunleavy is out again), but I love Harris going up against the Snell/Gasol combo.

Gerald Henderson - FD 5300 DK 4500 DFSTR 4600
Welp, Henderson has been a part of winning GPP lineups on back to back nights - getting it done with scoring/blocks/steals against the Wiz, and then scoring/boards/dimes against the Sixers. Either way, he's posted 7x this FanDuel price in back to back games, and draws another favorable match-up in what should be a close game with the Pacers (who have allowed a league average-ish amount of fantasy points to the small forward position this season).

Also considered: CJ Miles. He's been getting it done on these prices, and if you need to make the money work by getting him in there, I wouldn't blame you.

Great freerolls for miles over at Scorestreak, by the way. Get involved today by clicking the banner below! And they have a great offer: refer a friend, have them play $25 worth of games and get a $25 Amazon gift card.

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Power Forward

Greg Monroe - FD 8200 DK 8400 DFSTR 7200
Monroe is fresh off a ridiculous 21/21 game against Denver, and now draws the desperate Minnesota front court, who have allowed 4% more scoring and 11% more rebounding (good for 2nd worst in the league) against opposing PFs this season. It's always nice to take opposing PFs against the Wolves, but especially nice when it's a team like the Pistons, who are less likely to blow them out than your normal Western conference squad. Great play for cash games and GPPs.

Pau Gasol - FD 9400 DK 9300 DFSTR 8200
There have only been 3 games in 2015 that Pau Gasol hasn't registered a double double. The guy is as close to safe as it gets on these prices, even managing to pour in 46 fantasy points in just 28 minutes against Anthony Davis and the Pelicans - whom he abused for a 20/15 in that time. In this one he'll grab the defensive stylings of some combination of Channing Frye, Tobias Harris, and Aaron Gordon. It's simply not good enough. There's blowout risk here, of course - but I think Gasol will get his handily, and I'm not especially concerned about it.

Blake Griffin - FD 9400 DK 9300 DFSTR 8900
A lot of folks will give you Blake today, and for good reason. I'd venture he's a safer play than Pau, but I've got some concerns after a couple of lack-luster performances against the Brooklyn/Cleveland front courts. Still - OKC has allowed 8% more scoring to opposing PFs this season regardless of Ibaka's defensive reputation, and I wouldn't be surprised to see Blake put up a very nice game in what should be a closer game than Bulls/magic.

Also considered: Thad Young! Those minutes! My god. He'll be one of the safer points per dollar guys at the position if you decide to go a little cheaper than one of the above guys, and it's a nice spot against Detroit's lackluster defensive front court.


DeMarcus Cousins - FD 11000 DK 10500 DFSTR 9200
Our projection system likes Boogie as the best big dollar play of the day, and doesn't believe it's all that close. On a day where you can save up at several different positions across the board, I love slotting Cousins in at an otherwise weak-ish position. The Suns have allowed 6% more scoring and 5% more rebounds to opposing Centers, and Cousins put up a 25/18 with a couple of blocks in 34 minutes before fouling out against them in their last meet-up. The Kings don't seem to care if they're getting blown out - Cousins should see his minutes, and he should see them well.

Roy Hibbert - FD 6100 DK 5700 DFSTR 5400
Hey, I'm cautiously optimistic about playing Hibbert as a daily fantasy basketball option after he's average 38 minutes in his last two. It's a nice match-up with Al Jeff, and Hibbert was paying 4x+ on this price on 24-25 minutes. If he's going to get 30+? He could really be a monster here.

Keep an eye on... Nikola Pekovic. If he's out, Dieng becomes a fantastic play against Drummond and the Pistons.

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