Basketball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and Draftster 2/10/15
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Ramon Sessions - FD 3800 DK 4000 DFSTR 3000
If Collison is back, you can obviously scratch this. But if not? It's going to be tough to fade a guy who's playing a consistent 30+ minutes and putting up 6x-7x on this FanDuel price. My suspicion is that our projection system would give you Sessions independent of opponent, and that's basically what's happening here. Chicago is essentially league average at defending the position, if that matters to you.
Ty Lawson - FD 8400 DK 8000 DFSTR 6400
If you're looking to spend up at point guard, why not grab a ticket for the Lakers lottery? Opposing PGs have put up 23% more points against the Lakers than a league average defense, which is pretty damn absurd. And they've actually done a better job of hanging around (especially at home) than you might realize. Lawson's averaged 41 minutes in his last two games, and while he won't get those minutes if it's out hand, I think he could pay these prices regardless.
Brian Roberts - FD 5100 DK 4600 DFSTR 3500
We gave you Roberts two nights ago, and he put up 29 fantasy points against the Pacers in 40 minutes. In this one the Hornets draw another winnable game at home against the Pistons, and DJ Augustin is relatively unlikely to be interested in pinning Roberts down (that's not really his bag, baby). At low prices like these it's sort of hard to go too wrong for a guy who just dribbles the ball up the court for high 30s minutes per game.
Also considered: Derrick Rose.
James Harden - FD 11200 DK 10300 DFSTR 9400
Welp, we didn't give you Harden against the Blazers, and he sort of awkwardly went off for 67.8 fantasy points. My bad. But! Here he is, topping this column for you. A fair warning - this is as much condemnation of the other guys at this position as it is a recommendation of Harden. Our projection system doesn't love him on a strict points per dollar basis, but the other options at the position are just all so A) speculative or B) similarly priced, but worse. One this we can be sure of when it comes to Harden - he's going to get his minutes, and he's going to have the ball in his hands. I love him in what should be a close, fast paced game - especially with Bledsoe reeling after three nights of having to deal with a newborn in his house for the first time.
Jimmy Butler - FD 8800 DK 7800 DFSTR 6900
Gotta hand it to Thibs - he really couldn't care less that the rest of the teams in the NBA are playing their stars fewer minutes. Butler has averaged more than 40 minutes a contest in his last 4, and it doesn't look like that will be changing any time soon. He's been right around 40 points or better in 4 of his last 5, and draws a great match-up opposing Ben Mclemore, who has allowed 10% more scoring to opposing shooting guards than league average. Looks like quite a safe way to invest a nice chunk of salary tonight.
Courtney Lee - FD 3800 DK 3100 DFSTR 4000
Tony Snell - FD 3600 DK 3300 DFSTR 3000
It's a grizzly day at the shooting guard position. If you can't find the money to spend up for both big boys, I think both of these guys make reasonable plays. Snell is getting a fortune of minutes with Dunleavy and Hinrich out, and Lee is providing a steady 30 minutes off the bench for Memphis. And both could absolutely suck. But for me, getting a bunch of minutes in for $3,800 or less isn't especially risky, and I really wouldn't mind it for cash games or GPPs.
Also considered: Arron Afflalo.
Trevor Ariza - FD 5500 DK 5700 DFSTR 5100
Ariza is going to be the play of the day at this position until someone gives the industry pricing algorithms a shake and reminds them that he's back to playing nearly 40 minutes per game. He's producing, too: 30+ fantasy points in three straight games on a ton of opportunities since Dwight is out. That Phoenix is allowing 11% more scoring and 8% more rebounding to opposing small forwards this season is icing on the cake - Ariza is a must play in all formats.
Gerald Henderson - FD 5700 DK 5100 DFSTR 4600
The price is creeping up on Henderson, but like Ariza, he's out-producing whatever modest increases he's facing. In his last three games he's put up an average of 36+ fantasy points on 37+ minutes, which in case you're not a super math person, is freaking awesome on these prices. Detroit's been roughly league average against opposing small forwards this season, but like Ariza, this is more a case of a mispriced asset than anything else.
Wesley Johnson - FD 4100 DK 4200 DFSTR 4000
World wide Wes! In his last two games, he's played a steady 30 minute rotation, and paid just around 6x on this FanDuel price. Denver's allowed 3% more scoring and 8% more rebounding to opposing small forwards this season, and I think Johnson should see plenty of usage in a game that the Lakers stand to hang around in at home.
Also considered: Danilo Gallinari. The minutes have been creeping upward.
A quick note - PF spooks me tonight. I could hear an argument for any of the four guys below as the top play at the position.
Markieff Morris - FD 6200 DK 5800 DFSTR 5800
It's a night for the bold to take risks at power forward. Wow, that looks a lot lamer in writing than it sounded in my head. So why Morris, given how much he's sucked? Well, the Suns still trust him. And that might not last forever, but he's had 15 or more field goal attempts in every game since January 25th, including 20 his last time out. And yeah, he only made 3 of them. But shooting percentages tend to hold pretty steady over time, so the chances that Morris has gone from a 48% shooter last season to whatever his percentage is in this recent slump are remote. I think he'll get his minutes against the Rockets, and that he should be able to use his athleticism to turn opportunity into buckets against the Motiejunas/Smith/Dorsey combo down low.
Kenneth Faried - FD 6300 DK 5900 DFSTR 5500
Faried was made to dominate sad-sack front courts like the Lakers (Boozer's corpse, anyone?). And he can also disappear in any game on a coach's whim or a moment's notice. For me, though, this smacks of one of those games where he puts up 16 rebounds in the first half, and all of the people who didn't play him are scratching their heads.
Greg Monroe - FD 8000 DK 8500 DFSTR 7200
Feels a little like a parole hearing to put Monroe's name out there after I put him in the headline and he completely disappeared in a great match-up. But he did go 21/21 in the game before that, so I dunno what to tell you. I love him here because he's too big for Marvin Williams and too athletic for Cody Zeller. It should be a mismatch for the entire time he's on the floor. I guess you can't call him safe after last game, but with the question marks surrounding every other guy at the position tonight, he's about as safe as anyone else.
Also considered: Josh Smith. It's a pretty nice game log and track record here, and I wouldn't blame you if you prefer him to any of the above guys.
Al Jefferson - FD 8300 DK 7700 DFSTR 7400
Nobody puts up 50 fantasy points on 1% ownership like Al Jeff. And sure, the minutes have been up and down - but he will get his minutes in close contests. This should be one of those, and Detroit has been decidedly below average at defending opposing Centers this season (allowing 9% more points and 3% more rebounds than league average). Jefferson's polished post game should get Drummond in trouble early, and I think he'll have his back to the basket with the ball in his hands throughout this one.
DeMarcus Cousins - FD 10800 DK 10500 DFSTR 9200
This isn't last season's Bulls team down low, and Cousins has been taking a steady run at 37+ minutes per game for ages now. The ailing Noah and the old Gasol will have their hands full with Sac-town's petulant center, and I could easily see Boog putting up a ridiculous total here. Or he could foul out, or get kicked out by a technical foul. For me, I'll probably spend up elsewhere, but I expected Cousins to be a considerably high % start in cash games tonight.
If you have a stomach for it consider Robert Sacre. I wouldn't go and turn on your League Pass to watch the man in action, but he's put up some very solid numbers from time to time out of the starting rotation, assuming he's still there on Tuesday.