Basketball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice

Doug Norrie

Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and Draftster 2/20/15

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Disclaimer: Yesterday involved one of the craziest hours in NBA history as it seemed everyone was getting traded at once. All told, about 37 players switched teams. This kind of movement has cascading effects across the league. It not only affects the players traded, but those players who now have new roles on a team. It is a ton to digest. I am going to do my very best to predict how some of this movement will effect the landscape, but honestly, this is uncharted territory. For instance, at the time of this post the sites themselves hadn't even updated players on their new teams. I believe I've made many of the adjustments manually in our system, but if some were missed I'll plead for forgiveness. Leave a comment if you see an egregious error.

Point Guards

Nice place to go real cheap today.

Jerryd Bayless - FD 4100 DK 3600 DFSTR 3700
Brandon Knight is gone and it doesn't look like Michael Carter-Williams will be ready to play yet. That leaves things up to Bayless. Last time Knight was out Bayless didn't start but still played well over thirty minutes and went 8/7/9. I suspect the same thing will happen here and he gets a fast-paced, defensively-challenged Nuggets' squad. You are getting him at the minimums and that's going to allow you to pay up for shooting guard and some bigs, which I think is the strategy I'll be taking tonight.

Ray McCallum - FD 3500 DK 3000 DFSTR 3000
Darren Collison looks like he'll be sitting out tonight and Ramon Sessions is gone. That leaves McCallum as one of the few guys on the team who'll be able to actually dribble the ball up over the half-court line for the Kings. He isn't a good point guard by any means, but he doesn't need to be at these minimum prices. If he is out there for close to thirty minutes then I think he is paying these prices rather easily.

Tim Frazier - FD 3600 DK 4300
A much better deal on FanDuel, but there falls right in line with the guys above. He is a minimum-priced dude playing big minutes because his team doesn't have any other point guards. Frazier is a turnover machine and that shouldn't get much easier against the Pacers. But we are all about minutes and opportunity and he'll see his run no matter what happens with the final score.

Deron Williams - FD 5300 DK 5000 DFSTR 5800
Only in play if Jarrett Jack were to sit, but if D-Will is the starter then he instantly becomes one of the top plays on the day. You or I could put up a double-double against the Lakers as an opposing point guard, so just imagine what real basketball players do against them? The Lakers are as bad as a team can be at guarding this position.

Kyle Lowry - FD 7800 DK 7200 DFSTR 7500
I probably won't go here, but his price has really dropped in the short term. Much of it has to do with Derozan's return and Lowry's inevitable usage drop. But there is a breaking point with all prices and players and Lowry might be getting there.


Shooting Guards

I'll be spending a little bit in this slot today.

Eric Bledsoe - FD 8400 DK 8000 DFSTR 7600
With Dragic and Thomas out of the Suns' picture now, and Brandon Knight coming in (but possibly not playing tonight) the scoring is going to have to fall on someone's shoulders. That guy will have to be Bledsoe. His price is on the steeper side, but he gets a great matchup against the Timberwolves are allowing worse than league average scoring to both the shooting and point guard positions. Bledsoe has a great opportunity to take this one over.

Giannis Antetokounmpo - FD 6700 DK 7400 DFSTR 5200
He's been playing sick minutes lately and basically doing everything you would want out of a fantasy basketball player. He can chip in across the stat line meaning that as long as he's on the court the floor is super high. With no Brandon Knight, some scoring duties will shift to the other parts and the opposing Nuggets are a team in flux right now.

Dwyane Wade - FD 7700 DK 7200 DFSTR 7000
He should be in the lineup tonight as he gets "healthier" and gets an extra bump because Bosh is going to sit this one out. D-Wade gets a huge usage bump when Bosh isn't around (from about 30 to about 40) and should put up a lot of shots in this one. I typically don't love buying guys coming back from extended absences, but I'll make the exception in this one. Oh, and the Knicks stink.

Kevin Martin - FD 6800 DK 6300 DFSTR 5700
No Thad Young could mean even more shots for Martin who hasn't been shy about jacking them up since returning from injury. The Suns play at a fast pace and are a different looking team now. I think Martin looks to score more than usual here.

Strongly consider Kyle Korver and Demar Derozan. Also Randy Foye could be in line for a minutes bump with Afflalo out of the picture. And finally, Garrett Temple makes a solid punt on DraftKings.
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Small Forwards

Tobias Harris - FD 6200 DK 6400 DFSTR 5900
He should be back tonight and gets a nice matchup against the Pelicans who have struggled mightily with small forwards this season. Harris' biggest issue is staying on the court. Before getting hurt leading up to the All-Star break he'd been playing close to 40 minutes in regulation. That is oodles of run and if he were in line for those kinds of minutes tonight he'd be a must start in my opinion. As it is I am a little bearish just because of the unknown and he's simply a very, very good play.

Danilo Gallinari - FD 3600 DK 3800 DFSTR 3400
He's going to start with Afflalo gone and hads been productive at these prices if he can just get on the court in the mid twenties. That's all he needs and it's more than realistic with the current state of the Nuggets. He is dirt cheap, near the minimums across the board mostly because Brian Shaw never can decide on any kind of solid rotation. But if you think Gallo is one of the benefactors of the no-Afflalo situation then you have a great punt play.

Trevor Ariza - FD 5600 DK 5700 DFSTR 5700
Was on a very nice run leading up to the All-Star break as he'd seen his minutes climb back up into the high 30's again. His price has come up just a tad because of this so he isn't a blow-it-out-of-the-box value like he was a week and a half ago. But he's still looking good even on this large slate.

James Johnson - FD 3900 DK 4200 DFSTR 4300
Oh please, oh please could the minutes just be there consistently? Foul trouble screwed him (or he screwed himself) last game and took away all the upside he had from being in the starting lineup. If he can stay on the court and get those starter's minutes that he did two games ago then he is the best value on the slate. But it's just too variable and inconsistent and I can only trust him for GPPs for the moment.

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Power Forwards

Brandon Bass - FD 4600 DK 4200 DFSTR 4700
Jared Sullinger was hurt yesterday and could be out for an extended period of time. The Celtics are really thin in the big man department and that should clear the way for Bass to see those sweet, sweet minutes again. The Celtics don't have many options down low and the opportunity should be there for the guy. He's been inconsistent, but much of that has been from Brad Stevens choosing the hot hands in the moment. This almost can't be the case now as the Celtics are presently constructed and Bass should see plenty of run.

Greg Monroe - FD 7700 DK 8000 DFSTR 6900
Has pulled his fair share of disappearing acts and Stan Van Gundy has been known to harbor a grudge or two against guys under-performing in a game. That's all that stops me from running him a lot tonight. Chicago has been sneaky below average against opposing power forwards this season allowing about 3% more scoring and 6% more rebounding than league average to the position. I suspect some folks will be turned off to Monroe because of the matchup, but this is a solid spot to grab him.

Jason Smith - FD 5100 DK 5000 DFSTR 3900
No more Melo means the Knicks will have to look to someone for the scoring. Smith has actually been real productive at times and should see some more shots with Melo out. In fact, the last two games Anthony sat out Smith averaged about a 20/10. The Knicks stink of course, but they have to give someone the ball.

Josh Smith - FD 6500 DK 6900 DFSTR 6400
He was on a crushing tour leading in to the All-Star break putting up a five game stretch in which he averaged a 16/9/5 while throwing in some blocks and steals for good measure. That opportunity should continue as he's found a rhythm in the Rockets' offense. Price is still in the midrange and even coming off the bench I don't mind him for cash games.



DeMarcus Cousins - FD 11000 DK 10600 DFSTR 9000
He's the top big money play on this slate. The Celtics are very thin in the front court and he should have a huge advantage over Tyler Zeller and whoever else Boston throws his way. Boston has allowed 15% more scoring than league average to opposing centers and that is one thing Boogie can do in bunches. He plays a million minutes for the Kings no matter the game situation and that gives him a real high floor. There are so many ways to save on this hug slate that I'm not concerned in the slightest with his price tag. the only reason I'd get away from him at all is there are a few other awesome value centers. The next guy being one of them.

Rudy Gobert - FD 5700 DK 4500 DFSTR 4600
No more Enes Kanter who was the only thing stopping the Stifle Tower from standing tall. He will be a huge cash game start and with very good reason. I love Boogie's matchup, but the Gobert thing makes it dicey. It's why I'll prefer sites like DraftKings and Draftster tonight because I can play both guys. Gobert can fill it up quick and just needed to clear out another big blocking his way. That's happened and he will see his price rise dramatically.

Hassan Whiteside - FD 7700 DK 7600 DFSTR 4100
Still awesome. Still crushing. And should see more of the same with Bosh off the court tonight. The two guys above are better values but it's hard to ignore Mr. Whiteside going against the Knicks who don't have a solid interior presence. Whiteside should easily double-double here with room for a lot more. Still a must start on Draftster.

Tyler Zeller - FD 4500 DK 4000 DFSTR 4200
A nice GPP play on the cheap.

Consider Roy Hibbert

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