Basketball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice

Doug Norrie

Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and Draftster 2/23/15

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Point Guards

Jerryd Bayless - FD 4100 DK 4400 DFSTR 3800
I absolutely do not ever root for injuries. That being said, there are times I do root for guys to not hurry back from injuries. I just want them to be fully, and truly healthy. And if I can take advantage of the backup for another game so be it. This is one of those cases. MCW is questionable going into Monday's game and if dude sits again then Bayless again becomes an instant value play. Bayless is seeing thirty or so minutes at prices close to the minimums. Even a matchup against the Bulls doesn't dissuade me as Chicago is about league average defending point guards. Check back in on the Carter-Williams news and play (or don't play) Bayless accordingly.

Deron Williams - FD 5300 DK 5800 DFSTR 5800
Very much looks like Jarrett Jack will sit out again on Monday. When that happened last game, Deron played 40 minutes at the point going 12/15/4. Now that was against the Lakers who are the defensive equivalent of parking cones (that run really fast up and down the court). Denver isn't on the same horrid level, but the minutes for Williams are more than enough to run him out there again. He's still priced as a midtier backup. The Nets really don't have any other ballhandlers on the squad so there's reason to suspect he sees all the minutes again.

Isaiah Canaan - FD 3500 DK 3000 DFSTR 3000
Teams that are trying to lose on purpose will play guys like Isaiah Canaan more than thirty minutes a game. That's bad for anyone foolish enough to pay for Sixers tickets, but good for us. Canaan is a total punt play and is coming in at the minimums. Because Philly stands to get blown out most nights, you don't have to worry a ton about big spreads sinking his minutes. They will be there. He's by no means good, but just about anyone with this opportunity at these prices is in the discussion.

Goran Dragic - FD 5900 DK 6200 DFSTR 6300
I'm not going to let one bad game dictate how a guy will operate in his new situation. Dragic stunk of course. But he's still a talent and is playing a fast-paced Philly team that allows a ton of volume to opposing teams. Think it's an interesting time to buy low on the guy as many were burned by him the other night. But I do like the guys above quite a bit more for the money.

Chris Paul - FD 10000 DK 10000 DFSTR 8100
You'll be saving all across this slate so I think you can actually consider him even against the Grizzlies.


Shooting Guards

Tyreke Evans - FD 8000 DK 8000 DFSTR 6500
Eric Gordon - FD 6300 DK 5800 DFSTR 4800
Evans is a point guard on DraftKings where it becomes a little tougher to play him. But on many other sites he's still shooting guard eligible. Gordon is really the two and both of these guys are solidly in play considering the state of the Pelicans right now. Anthony Davis and Ryan Anderson are both out and New Orleans is almost completely devoid of dudes who can score beyond these two dudes. They play close to forty minutes each come hell or highwater and both of their usage rates climb when Davis is out. They stand to put up a ton of shots and will have the ball a majority of the time. The opportunity will be there for both as long as Toronto doesn't wipe the floor with New Orleans, which is in play. But these two might get the minutes even in a semi blowout.

Dwyane Wade - FD 7600 DK 7200 DFSTR 7100
Man shooting guard is just stacked tonight. With Bosh out of the lineup, Wade's usage goes way, way up. He chucked up 23 shots last game but ran bad from the field. If the shot volume is any indication of what the Heat will be doing with Bosh out, then Wade is going to be in play going forward even if his price goes up. This will be the hardest position to fill tonight because there are just so many solid options. Wade against Philly fits right in.

James Harden - FD 10600 DK 10500 DFSTR 9100
Makes an interesting big money play because A: he's James Harden and B: The T-wolves blow on defense. Shooting guard can often be a wasteland. Not tonight. There's a lot to like and you will almost definitely be able to fit Harden along with some other big salaries into your lineups. Minnesota has trouble containing shooting guards in terms of scoring as they allow about 8% more buckets than league average to the position. Harden is Harden.

Eric Bledsoe - FD 8400 DK 7800 DFSTR 7500
Another guy facing a softer defense though the Celtics' backcourt can body up. But Boston's pace allows more possessions than league average and that can account for a devent amount of opponent production even with guys like Avery Bradley and Marcus Smart out there. I like the guys above more, but Bledsoe is in play on this slate.

Consider Kevin Martin

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Small Forwards

James Johnson - FD 4500 DK 4800 DFSTR 4300
Finally put together the game we were looking for when he entered the starting lineup for the Raptors. He played a ton of minutes and was totally dominant putting up a 27/5/4/4 line that was the play of the night (I know because I played him when there was word Lou Williams wouldn't play). Foul trouble is kind of a problem for him, which can submarine the minutes, but after last game I think the Raptors will be hard pressed to bench him for long stretches. Granted, I've had this though about Johnson before, but here's to wishful thinking.

Danilo Gallinari - FD 3600 DK 4400 DFSTR 3700
Now that Arron Afflalo is gone, Gallo is firmly entrenched as a starter. His price hasn't risen to reflect this new role. Not by a long shot. Even though Brian Shaw has been known to yank around a minute or two in his time, I think Gallinari's minutes are there to stay. If that's the case then he's basically a must play at these prices. A starter, seeing mid-30's minutes facing a Nets team that is a mess defensively. That's a great spot and as long as the narrative on his playing time sticks he'll be a very highly owned player tonight.

Trevor Ariza - FD 5400 DK 5700 DFSTR 5600
He shows up a ton in our picks because he's consistently under-priced. He plays a ton of minutes for the Rockets and only saw limited run last game because of the blowout. That could of course happen again tonight, but if Minnesota can keep it even a little close, expect to see Trevor get big minutes. The T-Wolves allow about 10% more scoring than league average to opposing small forwards and Ariza is coming at such a solid tag.
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Power Forwards

Brandon Bass - FD 4600 DK 5200 DFSTR 4600
Jared Sullinger is out for the season and the Celtics are almost out of big men. Just look at last game: Bass played 37 minutes mostly because Boston has almost zero size right now. Those minutes should stick for the foreseeable future. They just have no other options. Bass is coming still super cheap, especially on FanDuel where I suspect he'll be a monster cash game start. The problem on this slate is that there are just a million cheap options. At some point you will have to pay up for someone. But Bass' tag and opportunity are one of those situations you will need to play because power forward is a wasteland.

Zach Randolph - FD 8500 DK 8100 DFSTR 7300
Will be interesting to see how the Clippers defend Randolph. I suspect it will be Spencer Hawes and that is good news for Z-Bo. He'll present some matchup problems for the Clippers in general and I like getting his salary in on a day where it's easy to save elsewhere. He's remarkably consistent and this game should stay close.

Pau Gasol - FD 9700 DK 9700 DFSTR 8100
Like I said before, there is oodles of cheap talent on this slate meaning you'll have to spend your money somewhere. Gasol makes a solid option considering power forward is in general bad, and he has a matchup against the Bucks who are slightly better than league average against power forwards. I'm not in love with the value of course, but playing a guy like Gasol is more a byproduct of what is happening at the other positions.

Thaddeus Young - FD 6600 DK 5500 DFSTR 6300
Played very few minutes in his first game with the Nets, but I'm speculating that he's in line for many more with Bogdanovic on the shelf. I could see him playing the three against a weak Denver squad. Keep an eye out for news on this leading into gametime.

Strongly consider Markieff Morris


Tyler Zeller - FD 4500 DK 5000 DFSTR 4200
His writeup will look remarkably similar to Bass' above. The Celtics just don't have anyone else they can play in the low post and Zeller will see his fair share of minutes going forward. He's a productive offense player when he can get rolling and Phoenix hasn't been great against centers this season (though much of that has to do with Miles Plumlee who's now gone). Zeller is just another price and opportunity play that is all over this slate.

Hassan Whiteside - FD 7800 DK 7800 DFSTR 4500
No Bosh, no problem for Mr. Whiteside who played thirty minutes last game and put up an 11/16/5 (blocks) game against a crappy Knick team. The Sixers aren't any better and he should be able to feast down low. The dude is a human rebound and block machine who puts up insane per minute numbers. That run is locked in now. I'll be playing him quite a bit to round out some of the money on this slate.

Alex Len - FD 4500 DK 4000 DFSTR 3800
Man it's going to be tough choosing among all of the underpriced options on this slate. Len is now very much the starting center for the Suns and enjoying all of the minutes that role affords. Boston is small and undermanned in the frontcourt, having allowed tons of production this season to opposing centers.

Alexis Ajinca - FD 4200 DK 4000 DFSTR 3700
He is a foul wrapped up in a human body. Dude can get it done when he's on the court, but staying on said court is very tough for him because he is just a hacking machine. Really like him with both Brow and Ryan Anderson out, but be wary that he can sit for long stretches while in foul trouble.

Rudy Gobert - FD 5700 DK 5200 DFSTR
A testament more to the slate than anything that he's this far down the list.


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2 Visitor Comments

  1. Just wanted to say that I really like these updates every morning – great stuff! First site I look at prior to putting my team together. Keep up the great work!

  2. Good call on Dragic, I had a lot of these players on my team. If I had just put in crowder and covington in at small forward in one of my lineups I would have won the nba shot! Maybe next time!

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