Basketball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and Draftster 2/28/15
NBA! Post trade deadline. This is hard. But fun! Enjoy.
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Pre-write-up note: John Wall is the most expensive player tonight, at $9,100. It's hard to get the money in. But the guys below? They're the best plays. I'm honestly not sure where you should spend up to get away from the cheap guys, but our projection system has plenty of opinions, if you want to try a free three day trial.
Langston Galloway - FD 5300 DK 5200 DFSTR 5400
With Calderon down, Galloway's minutes are all the more secure. And Galloway has been a man on a mission recently - averaging 38 minutes per game and 26+ fantasy points in his last three games (although as of this writing foul trouble has him with a lousy game vs. the Pistons). We've downgraded his projection slightly (to 33 minutes, to account for blow-out risk vs. the Raptors), but even still, our projection system thinks he's the runaway favorite as the best points per dollar play on the board against the Raptors' league average point guard defense.
Ricky Rubio - FD 7300 DK 7300 DFSTR 5700
The Wolves have been playing a lot better now that Rubio has found his offensive touch, and I'm enjoying every moment of it. It's tempting to be spooked by the potential blow-out risk here, but you're looking at a guy that averaged 39 fantasy points against Houston, Golden State, and Phoenix - and he's en route to a fine game against Chicago as of this writing. And sure, Memphis isn't the best match-up for Rubio's particular skill set (they allow more points than league average to point guards, but depress rebounds and assists), but Rubio is still priced as a bargain relative to his production if he's going to play 36+ minutes. Maybe it's a little risky? But at some point this is a trend, and not a freak occurrence.
Reggie Jackson - FD 6100 DK 6100 DFSTR 4600
An off-shooting night for Jackson might sour some owners on Jackson's potential, but not me. I can see the chip on Jackson's shoulder from out here in New Hampshire, which is really something, because that's a really, really long way away. But for real - he's been a points per minute animal in his brief stint so far in Detroit, and they didn't trade for him to jerk him around. And while this might have been a blow-out risk game earlier this season, the Wizards are absolutely lost right now. I think Jackson fills it up, and that his price rises by 10% in the near to mid term.
Also considered: Kyle Lowry.
Courtney Lee - FD 3700 DK 3200 DFSTR 4400
I hesitate to put such a cheap guy at the top of my shooting guard heap, but the price has gotten to the point where Lee is just ridiculously underpriced. He's locked in for 30 minutes a game, and while he is capable of a disappearing act, he's also put up 7x+ in 2 of his last 5 games. And a zero. But! This really is a fine match-up. The T-wolves have allowed 6% more scoring to opposing shooting guards, and scoring is really the main thing Lee is capable of. I think he'll get his full run of minutes, and build upon his recent success. This price will look a little silly a couple of weeks from now.
Giannis Antetokounmpo - FD 6400 DK 7300 DFSTR
It's tempting to write off Giannis' recent success as a blessing of playing against teams that can't defend, but that really doesn't matter in this one. Utah's shooting guard defense has flown off a cliff since Alec Burks went down, and they've allowed 10% more points to opposing shooting guards for the season. And while a lot of people ascribe volatility to the Greek Freak, it's a pleasant sort of volatility. He's only dipped below 4x in 2 of his last 10 games, while putting up 6x+ in 4 of those contests. We could be looking at another monster game, here.
Monta Ellis - FD 6700 DK 7200 DFSTR 6800
The hate has gone too far on Monta Ellis, price wise. He's had a few respectable games on these prices recently, and he gets one of the very best match-ups for the league for opposing shooting guards in Brookyln. They've allowed 11% more scoring, 8% more rebounds, and 9% more assists to opposing 2s. While he has had some tough luck recently, these are exactly the scenarios where we can get good separation from the field and get some very solid production.
Also considered: Kyle Korver.
Richard Jefferson - FD 3500 DK 3500 DFSTR 3000
With Chandler Parsons ruled out for Saturday's game, you're getting a guy with 9x upside at a minimum price. He'll have the highest floor of any player going tonight on a points per minute basis, and plenty of ceiling as well. He's old, generally lousy, and all the rest - but if he's out there for 30 minutes, it's going to be hard for him not to produce enough value to satisfy your needs against the uninspiring Nets.
James Johnson - FD 4100 DK 4700 DFSTR 4400
A heinous disappearing act for Johnson while the Raps were getting decimated at the hands of the Warriors, but it doesn't have me concerned for this game. If he's starting again, he's not priced for what he can produce. The Knicks have allowed essentially a league average amount of fantasy points to opposing small forwards, but the real kicker here is price. If he's going to get 30+ minutes, paying this price (and then some) should be a breeze. As a side note - if some news does come out in favor of Terrence Ross after he played pretty well in the blow-out, I'd probably look elsewhere.
Andrew Wiggins - FD 6700 DK 6400 DFSTR 6200
Just to be clear - I think it's a day to save up at small forward. I'd prefer either of the above guys, or Otto Porter (listed in the future, if he starts) in a heartbeat. But if the money shakes out in certain ways, Wiggins doesn't make a bad play. Some foul trouble chipped in to his line against Chicago, but other than that, Wiggins plays a fortune of minutes, and is pretty solid in those minutes he plays - offering 4-4.5x on most nights. Nothing to write home about - especially since Memphis is tough on opposing small forwards - but he makes a reasonable cash game play.
Also considered: Otto Porter - great play if Pierce is out again.
Andrea Bargnani - FD 4000 DK 3800 DFSTR 4500
Barg moved to the starting lineup on Friday after posting a 30%(!) usage rate in Wednesday's game. And then he built upon that by putting up essentially a million fantasy points against the Pistons. And, sure, there's some blow-out risk any time the Knicks step on the court - but our projection system loves Bargs on a conservatively projected 25 minutes, so he's looking like the highest upside play, perhaps at any position on the board tonight.
Greg Monroe - FD 7600 DK 7900 DFSTR 7000
Monroe devastated the Wiz in their last match-up: putting up 15 and 15 and 40 fantasy points. He looked incredible against the Knicks last night, and trends are all pointing in the right direction, here. Our projection system gets that the Wizards have been tough on opposing power forwards this season, but it doesn't care. And these aren't the early season Wiz. Monroe is the safest bet on the board tonight at the position tonight.
Also considered: Like, no one. Our projection system is fine with Favors? But it's a significantly worse play than the above guys. And you could gamble on Ilyasova, but why not just go with Bargnani instead? I won't be overthinking it tonight - I'm playing Monroe and Bargnani everywhere.
Rudy Gobert - FD 6400 DK 6500 DFSTR 4800
We headlined with Gobert yesterday, and at half-time he's got 20 fantasy points on the strength of four blocks against the Nuggets. Gobert is a force of nature, and the Bucks have allowed 3% more points and 5% more rebounds to opposing centers this season. It's like I wrote last night - the price here is just ridiculous if Gobert is going to play 33-36 minute rotations.
Alex Len - FD 5100 DK 5400 DFSTR
In close games, Len has been amazing since returning from injury. He posted 6x or better against the Celtics, Wolves, and Thunder, while putting up respectable performances against the Bulls and Nuggets as well. The young Russian is just underpriced now that Plumlee is gone. And what I really like here? The Spurs, while generally league average against center position this season, have allowed 7% more rebounds to opposing centers. And Len has posted 10+ rebounds in each of the games he's played since coming back. In a game that should be close, Len has a seriously high floor and plenty of ceiling to boot.
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