Basketball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice

Doug Norrie

Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and Draftster 3/11/15

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Point Guards

Russell Westbrook - FD 13300 DK 12500 DFSTR 8700
Well this is getting just a little bit out of hand isn't it? I mean, what do we really say about this guy at this point? He's in full on cheat code, video game mode. He's your buddy you play against that you insist knows something about the game that you don't know. It's just crazy and there's no rational explanation except he's the best and that's all there is to it. Now the question is: Can I pay? He's an exorbitant $13,300 on FanDuel. I will make the claim right now that this is the highest price we will ever see for a player this season, and maybe forever. There is still a case for playing him, but the upside diminishes with each $1K of salary that seems to get added every game. Putting him in here not because the system loves him, but because the recent track record is simply too much to ignore.

Chris Paul - FD 10500 DK 10300 DFSTR 8700
If you are going to fade Russell today (never a great feeling) then opting across the court might be the way to go. For all he does on the court, Westbrook does allow production to opposing point guards and there's almost no doubt CP3 gets way up for this game. You grab him for significantly less than Westbrook in a game where Paul has a lot of upside.

Ricky Rubio - FD 8200 DK 8300 DFSTR 5900
Fast-paced game. Very thin Phoenix back court. Tons of minutes. This has all the makings of a monster game for Rubio who can get it done in so many different ways. In his last six games (which include teams like Memphis, Chicago, and two against CP3) Rubio is averaging a 12/11/6/2 (steals). That gets it done at these prices and his floor is very high because of how he diversifies his contributions.

Ty Lawson - FD 7500 DK 6900 DFSTR
The Hawks are such a solid team that it's hard to get too excited about their opponents. But Lawson has seen his price dip of late, and with Denver's new, steadier rotation there is at least some chance they hang in this game. If the minutes are there for Ty then he pays these prices.

Mo Williams - FD 7400 DK 7600 DFSTR 5600
Price is still in the buy zone especially against a weaker defensive team in the Kings. Mo is a primary offensive option for the Hornets until Kemba comes back and his price is in a good-not-great range.

Our projection system thinks you can take a chance on Aaron Brooks if the minutes are there as well as Patrick Beverley


Shooting Guards

Eric Bledsoe - FD 8300 DK 7600 DFSTR 7100
Brandon Knight has already been ruled out for this game which means it's going to be all Bledsoe tonight. It wouldn't shock me at all to see him play close to 40 minutes in this game as the Suns really don't have a backup point guard. Add in that he gets to face a weak Minny team and you have a fantastic play on your hands here. Bledsoe's been shooting a bit less of late, but expect the minutes tonight to more than make up for that.

J.J. Redick - FD 5600 DK 5700 DFSTR 5300
With Blake and Jamal out the Clippers have been content letting JJ shoot, shoot, shoot some more, take a break and then keep shooting. He's averaging about 19 shots a game over the last three, about 75% more than his season averages. That's an insane usage boost that he's making the best of. Price has climbed some, but not to meet this kind of volume. The Thunder are no pushover, but the Clippers are desperate for scoring and JJ is part of the solution.

Arron Afflalo - FD 4400 DK 4500 DFSTR 4100
First game as the starter for Wesley Matthews didn't go exactly as planned for Afflalo. He shot poorly and didn't do much else except foul out. I don't expect trends like that to continue even if he is the fourth offensive option in the Blazers' starting five. He should see quality looks with opposing defenses focusing on Lillard and Aldridge. Let others be swayed by last game when he was a top end value play and stunk. Now's a great time to buy again.

Kevin Martin - FD 6400 DK 5900 DFSTR 5900
Two of his last three games have been rough in the shooting department. And if you know K-Mart you know that if he ain't scoring, he ain't paying. The pace of this game should favor him and if he gets up toward fifteen shots with his averages then he pays this and then some. But he's risky and more a GPP play.

Consider James Harden but I'm not sure I break the bank for him. Dwayne Wade and Kyle Korver also make nice options.


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Small Forwards

Michael Beasley - FD 4200 DK 4100 DFSTR 3000
It stands to reason that with Whiteside out of the lineup tonight, Beasley will get a little more run. He's played more than 30 minutes in the last two games as the Heat have dealt with various injuries and is becoming a sort of Swiss Army knife for the team. Even projected at 28 minutes he's a top end value against the Nets. A little to reliant on scoring, so the rebounds need to be there as well to crush his price. But if they Heat are shorthanded again he seems pretty safe.

Tobias Harris - FD 6500 DK 6900 DFSTR 5900
Been recommending him for the last couple of games and he showed some of the flashes last night against Indiana. He went for 22/6 and still played 30 minutes even in the blowout. I like the Magic chances for hanging with Milwaukee tonight. And though the Bucks are a long team, Harris can find his shot as a hybrid three/four.

Danilo Gallinari - FD 5200 DK 5700 DFSTR
Foul trouble got him early against the Knicks which hurt his minutes total. Sat more than I thought he would even with the quick two fouls, but I'm not too worried about it going forward. Love buying him here especially if he screwed some people last game getting dusted off by the minutes.

Andrew Wiggins - FD 6500 DK 6800 DFSTR 5700
Pulled a bit of a disappearing act in the second half against the Clippers on Monday thanks in part to a rough 5-16 shooting performance and less minutes than normal. Don't be afraid to head back to the well with him against an uptempo Phoenix squad.

If Gerald Green starts for Phoenix he makes a nice punt play option. Also Gerald Henderson could be flying under the radar.

Power Forwards

Nikola Mirotic - FD 5700 DK 6200 DFSTR 4200
Doesn't look like Taj Gibson will be back tonight which means more Mirotic. He's been so solid of late coming off the bench in the Gibson role (though he's a much different player) and has shown a nose for the baskets and the boards. Minutes have dipped some in the last two games and could even more if the Bulls crush the 76ers, but I like Philly's chances of hanging in here considering how hard it is can be for Chicago to score at times.

Kenneth Faried - FD 6400 DK 6900 DFSTR 5500
Loving that he's now very much the Manimal again. Been waiting most of the season for this kind of consistent run and he's getting it now under Melvin Hunt. Been playing minutes in the low 30s consistently and only saw limited run against the Knicks because of the blowout. Should be able to use his speed and aggressiveness against the Hawks tonight and is still coming at a big discount. The price hasn't caught up with the minutes.

Paul Millsap - FD 7400 DK 7800 DFSTR 7800
Hard to trust any one Hawk on any given night (though I did trust Teague the other night *brag) but Millsap offers a decent expectation in what should be a closer, high-scoring game. Will definitely pose some matchup problems with Faried. Denver is one of the worst teams in the league defending opposing bigs and Millsap could exploit that in a big way.

Markieff Morris - FD 6500 DK 5900 DFSTR 5900in
Total feast of famine play. Love the matchup against the Wolves, but he has been known to not even show up for games. Wouldn't mind at all throwing him into some tournaments especially because the Suns are going to need some scoring tonight with Knight out of the game.

Consider Greg Monroe and Pau Gasol. And Marvin Williams is interesting if he gets the start for Zeller



Marc Gasol - FD 7700 DK 7500 DFSTR 8400
Been playing real well of late which coincides nicely with how badly Boston gets torched by opposing centers. Doesn't matter who they put in there, the D just isn't there as they are allowing 15% more scoring than league average to opposing fives. Gasol's skillset gives him a healthy floor though we do need to worry some about the blowout here. The Celts can get frisky, but Memphis can clamp it down and turn a team to dust. Gasol's price is such that I'm willing to risk the limited minutes, but a big slate makes that a little tougher.

Brook Lopez - FD 6900 DK 6100 DFSTR 6200
Whiteside won't play tonight and the Heat don't have a ton of viable big men. Lopez, as an offense-first center, should have plenty of opportunities to get to the rim tonight. He's now locked in as the starter and has put up three quality games in a row. I love his chances at a huge game tonight if the Nets can put together some things offensively against Miami. Price is still very right considering he's back in the starting five.

Joakim Noah - FD 7000 DK 6700 DFSTR 6000
Doesn't have oodles of upside, but I like the matchup. You know the Bulls don't worry too much about blowouts even if they do happen, so I think the minutes will at least be there. Noah's biggest issue is he's been allergic to scoring. That's a problem that crushes his ceiling.

If he can get back to 30 minutes then Alex Len makes a great value play.


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