Baseball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and Draftster 4/25/15 - Late Slate
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Brandon McCarthy - FD 7800 DK 8800 DFSTR 7400
I think he's the clear play on this slate and I suspect he will be in nearly all of my lineups. I understand that he is facing a much improved Padres team as they've added a ton of new talent. But McCarthy has been no slouch this season. In his first three starts he's putting up 12.5 K's per nine and walking almost no one. The xFIP is two and a half runs less than his ERA and he's mostly been burned by the long ball. That last point isn't a problem at all in Petco and seeing as how he's a flyball pitcher I think there is a lot to like here. I typically pay all the way up for pitching in safe situations but I think it's tough on this slate to go up to Waino. I just don't think he's worth it. That could burn me, but I'm running McCarthy all over the place.
A.J. Burnett - FD 6900 DK 7600 DFSTR 6400
I think you can consider him as an upside play on this slate. If you play him you can completely load up on bats and hope A.J. can get out of Chase Field alive. He has the highest K upside of pitchers in his price tier as he's putting down about a batter an inning. Chase is no great place to pitch, but that's why he's an upside play pure and simple. I wouldn't put him in any safe situation. Burnett has an xFIP in the low 3's as the ERA is a little misleading. But I do like him if I want to target total upside.
Buster Posey - FD 4000 DK 4600 DFSTR 7300
Kind of a no-brainer on this slate considering you don't need to pay a ton for pitching. There hasn't been a ton of price-correcting on him considering he's playing in Coors. Is better against lefties with a .875 OPS and 151 wRC+ against lefties which is even better than it looks considering he plays half his time in one of the worst hitter's parks in baseball. I'm really not looking anywhere else but Posey on this slate as the price doesn't kill you and the ballpark is just too great a place to hit. No-brainer territory.
Consider Mike Zunino as a cheap punt.
Chris Davis - FD 3100 DK 4300 DFSTR 6000
This is a real interesting matchup. On the one hand, Crush strikes out like he's a blind guy swinging around a walking stick. On the other hand Justin Masterson has a significant problem facing lefty hitters. Over the last season or so Masterson has allowed an OPS of about .850 to lefty bats. That is really about as bad as you will ever see from a starting pitcher and it's only because he's so dominant against righties that he sticks around. I'm tempted to play Crush everywhere just on the matchup and live with it if he K's a ton.
Matt Adams - FD 2900 DK 4500 DFSTR 6100
Big power upside here for Adams as he's going in Miller Park, a place that boosts power to lefties. He's also facing Wily Peralta who strikes out less than four batters per nine. Adams is coming real cheap all things considered and has very nice upside with his power expectation in this matchup.
Robinson Cano - FD 3800 DK 4400 DFSTR 6800
Again, on this slate you aren't worrying too much about spending on pitching even if you go all the way up to Wainwright. It's going to be pretty easy to get some stud bats into your lineups. Cano is a real tough for righty pitching especially when it comes to putting him down on strikes. That's a good spot against Trevor May who has a very low K rate. I don't love Cano hitting in Seattle especially considering there is a game going in Coors on this slate, but he's the best hitter at second base on the slate and you don't have to go out of the box to put him in lineups.
Brian Dozier - FD 2800 DK 4100 DFSTR 6700
You can consider taking him at a discount on this slate against Paxton. Dozier hits lefties pretty well and add the speed component to his game that raises his floor on any given night. The Twins in general are a bad offense which ultimately hurts Dozier's chance at hitting the batter's box a ton of times. But he's affordable.
Troy Tulowitzki - FD 4700 DK 5800 DFSTR 8500
I'm feeling awkward here for sure. I'm totally cognizant that I've recommended many of the most expensive plays at each position. I get it, but those that read us a bunch know this is almost never the case. We don't roll like that unless the situation is an extreme one. That's the case on this slate. Pitching is coming cheap across the board and you will be able to afford multiple big bats. Tulo is Tulo. I'm not going to extol his virtues to you. If you've even heard of baseball you know the story here. What I will say is that you can fit his salary if you play almost anyone but Wainwright and you probably can even with Adam.
Jhonny Peralta - FD 2500 DK 4100 DFSTR 5200
Man has his price fallen off a cliff. Coming very cheap in a good matchup against Wily Peralta who couldn't strike you out (but he'd probably get you to ground out). Peralta has some power upside though he did run a little hot with home runs last season. The Cardinals in general are a good bet on this slate especially if you want to stack away from Coors.
Josh Harrison - FD 2800 DK 4500 DFSTR 6500
I still think we are buying this guy at a discount even with his early season struggles. The Babip is way low to start the season and he showed last season that he can hit right-handed pitching. In last the last year or so he's put up an .832 OPS and .363 wOBA in that split. Chase Field is fantastic for power and Josh Collmenter is nothing to write home about (unless you're like his girlfriend or something). Buy low on Harrison. Hitting leadoff in a solid park at these prices is a great value.
Casey McGehee - FD 2300 DK 3600 DFSTR 4900
Coors. Coors. Coors. Coors. He's basically a below average hitter who has the opportunity to hit in a fantastic park. Doesn't cost you a ton and getting bats going in a game with this kind of over/under is always a solid spot.
Kole Calhoun - FD 3400 DK 4500 DFSTR 7200
I suspect he will be a big play on this slate. His price is just about right and hitting from the leadoff spot is a huge advantage no matter the matchup. When that matchup is against Colby Lewis then all the better. Lewis is bad, has an xFIP that consistently hovers in the mid 4's and doesn't strike many batters out. Calhoun is a solid hitter against righties and last season put up an OPS right around .800 in that split. Like I said, his biggest value add is the spot in the order. And hitting in front of Trout ain't too shabby.
Mike Trout - FD 5100 DK 5200 DFSTR 8500
Speaking of. He crushes right-handed pitching as he's a moderate reverse splits guy. Don't typically write about Trout because I think most nights the price is just totally out of bounds. But there are plenty of ways to save tonight both at the plate and on the mound. Think you can consider him here because fitting his salary will be easy especially if you don't play Tulo. The only case against that would be the positional scarcity as there is plenty of OF value.
Speaking of cheap value in the outfield, I am just going to roll down some names that our projection system loves on this slate with a quick note:
Alejandro de Aza - FD 2500 DK 3100 DFSTR 5400
David Lough - FD 2300 DK 3100 DFSTR 6100
Whichever lefty guy is hitting leadoff for the Orioles tomorrow is a dude I want to have a piece of (figuratively). The O's don't have a ton of lefty bats to target against Masterson, but these two guys would be in such a great spot if they were hitting at the top of the order.
HJason Heyward - FD 2900 DK 4400 DFSTR 6600 eyward
Much the same case that I made with Adams and to a lesser degree Jhonny Peralta. I have no faith in Wily Peralta and think the Cards can put up some runs in this game. Hitting at the top of the order is a solid place for Heyward.
Consider Seth Smith