Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and Draftster 4/28/15

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Pitcher

Tyson Ross - FD 8400 DK 9200 DFSTR 7600
On a night of a thousand ace arms going bet you didn't expect to see this name first. But here we are. Ross has been a strikeout machine to start this season with 11K's per nine innings in his first few starts. The problem is that he hasn't worked late into games because the walk rate is so damn high. But he has some things going for him tonight. One is he's at home in one of the best pitcher's parks in baseball. He's also facing the Astros who strike out the most in the league against righty pitching. If he can just limit the walks a tad he's the play of the day at pitcher and I'd even feel fine playing him in cash games. It's just those pesky free passes.

Clayton Kershaw - FD 11500 DK 12400 DFSTR 11900
I hate that he's facing Bumgarner in this one, but I love everything else about Kershaw. First off, don't be swayed by the low 4's ERA. His xFIP is at perfectly Kershaw-ian levels at 1.93. He's striking out close to 13 batters per nine. But he's been beat up a bit on Babip to start the season and had failed to reach the seventh inning in any start. the underlying peripherals suggest this is a mirage. He is still very much the same pitcher and you shouldn't worry too much about playing him from a talent perspective. It's just the matchup and the price that have me a little squeamish.

Johnny Cueto - FD 10400 DK 10400 DFSTR 9500
Our system actually doesn't love him on this slate but I think he's at least worth a mention, don't you. Cueto has continued to put up sick peripherals and remains a top option on the mount. He's striking out close to ten batters per nine and really limiting the walks. The second piece is huge because it allows him to go late into games. The Brewers are an above average team against righty hitting, but Cueto is a nice favorite for the win here.

These are the main three guys I am looking at tonight. Rafael Montero also has some cheap K upside against the Marlins in a good pitcher's park.

Catcher

Victor Martinez - FD 3400 DK 4500 DFSTR 6800
There are some aces going today which, if you choose to go the high-priced-arm route, will mean you need to save in some other areas. And VMart actually counts as one of those cost cutters. Martinez is nearly impossible for righties to strike out. He K'd only 6% of the time in that split last season with a BB rate nearly double that. Those numbers are nuts for anyone. Like him against a low K guy like Pelfrey.

Yadier Molina - FD 2600 DK 4000 DFSTR 5800
He's just about platoon nuetral for his career, though a little bit worse against righties. I'm mostly looking at the price here in facing a rookie like Severino Gonzalez. So many hitters are coming affordable, but Molina makes a nice value behind the dish considering the opponent and the overall strength of the lineup.

Welington Castillo - FD 2200 DK 3400 DFSTR 4800
He's consistently getting the starts against lefty pitching and that's been a great split for Castillo over his career. Welington put up an .855 OPS in that split last season to go with a 139 wOBA. He's just the kind of guy to get in there when the situation arises because the price is kept down by all the playing he doesn't do when righties are on the mound.

 

First Base

There's a moderate logjam at this position tonight. A ton of guys fall into the same points/$ range on all three sites. It's tough to delineate the stand outs because they are all so close. The good news here is it allows some flexibility because you can lineup construct and fill in some first base near the end with mix and matches. The bad news is there are a bunch of good hitters coming at nice prices and you'll have to pick them right.

Justin Morneau - FD 3400 DK 4500 DFSTR 6500
Typically like to target him at Coors, but Chase Field is a fine substitute. His price isn't crazy high thanks to some early season struggles. Part of it is Babip-related but he's also running bad on his Hr/FB rate. Arizona has a ballpark only slightly behind Coors in terms of being hitter friendly. With Morneau's price slightly depressed I think you can grab him pretty safely on this slate. As I was writing this Morneau went yard Monday night

Freddie Freeman - FD 3200 DK 4600 DFSTR 6400
His price is too high on DraftKings, so I will probably avoid him there in favor of some cheaper plays. But totally in play on FanDuel coming in the low 3000's. Freeman's high walk rate and power against righties makes him a play whenever there's mediocre arm on the mound. Doesn't mash in the upper tier of first basemen but he isn't priced like one either.

Chris Davis - FD 3700 DK 4500 DFSTR 6200
Power upside play against the weaker Noesi. I'll go into the White Sox righty later in this write up, but if you are skimming know that Hector isn't good. I love targeting Crush against low K pitchers because the whiff is dude's Achilles's heel. But park plays for power and Noesi has a tendency to get bombed.

Strongly consider Matt Adams

 

Side note - have you seen this super cool tool for finding good heads up and 50/50 match-ups? It's called Rotoshark, and it could be a real game changer.

 

Second Base

Man second base is such a wasteland most nights. It sucks and I hate it.

Jimmy Paredes - FD 3300 DK 4000 DFSTR 3100
Bab-ing his ass off right now so don't get too excited. And the price has come up to reflect some of his early games. The problem with second base though is that there are just so few quality plays at the position tonight. Paredes is locked into the second spot in the order in front of some good hitters, which will help in his run expectation. I don't love this play for the price but am struggling to find much of anything good at the position tonight.

Rickie Weeks - FD 2200 DK 3700 DFSTR 5000
Hoping he gets the start against the lefty Detwiler. I don't want to spend anything at second base tonight and Weeks offers a solid opportunity to get out of the position with nothing spent while playing a guy who put up really good numbers against lefties last season. His .855 OPS in that split along with a .381 wOBA shows a dude who can hit lefty pitching. And Detwiler blows.

Think you can consider Logan Forsythe if he gets the start.

 

 

Shortstop

Troy Tulowitzki - FD 4300 DK 5000 DFSTR 8300
If you don't go for one of the stud arms today (and I'm not totally sure you should spend all the way up for the big boys) then Tulo is a guy I want to have almost all over the place. With some cheaper pitchers and affordable bats across the industry, getting his salary in isn't a complete stretch. Don't need to explain too much to you about Tulo's attributes. What is good to know is that positional scarcity makes this a tough fill most nights. Even getting slightly worse points/$ on his salary doesn't kill you considering so many shortstops stink, bat low in the order or both.

Asdrubal Cabrera - FD 2200 DK 3900 DFSTR 5500
Don't know why he's hitting third except that the Rays know something we don't. But who cares, dude has all the opportunity in the world and bats higher than most other shortstops. Has a hard ceiling because there isn't much power to speak of, but the extra plate appearance is worth a ton. Is a guy that's been a consistent cash game play simply because of his opportunity.

Jordy Mercer - FD 2200 DK 3800 DFSTR 3100
Jung-Ho Kang - FD 2200 DK 3500 DFSTR 3000
Both guys stink but they're righties facing lefties and are coming at punt prices.

 

Third Base

Kris Bryant - FD 3500 DK 4600 DFSTR 3000
He hasn't been around long but is already getting a reputation for being a lefty killer. Bryant is for sure the real deal and will be hammering lefties for years to come. Even in the small sample size, I'm more than willing to buy him in the middle tier because dude has so much going for him. Weak lefty on the mound and Bryant hitting in the cleanup spot. The early season gains only add fuel to the fire. Great play on this slate.

Adrian Beltre - FD 3100 DK 4700 DFSTR 7000
Price is a joke against the lefty J.A. Happ. Beltre is one of the best hitters in the game in this split, putting up an OPS close to 1K last season along with a .421 wOBA. I love him in this spot and it will be an easy call to rotate he and Bryant into cash games. The park is made for hitters even if Happ has some success against righties.

Josh Harrison - FD 2900 DK 4500 DFSTR 6500
We've written a decent amount this guy in such an early part of the season, but the price just simply remains too low. I know there have been some struggles in the early going, but for a leadoff hitter who put up a 141 WRC+ against lefties over the last year plus I still still think you are getting a great bargain. Sitting through the 0-4's hasn't been easy, but I still think there is upside here especially against a lefty who's struggled against righty hitting.

 

Outfield

Andrew McCutchen - FD 3900 DK 5000 DFSTR 8200
He's expensive on DraftKings so you'll need to make some decisions there. But on FanDuel he's looking like a fantastic cash and tournament play. McCutch, even with a .282 Babip over the last year, has still found a way to put up an OPS over .900 against lefties. He's one of the best hitters in the game in this split and adds whiffs of speed to push the upside even higher. Will be tough for me to get away from him tonight if I'm not spending up for the big arms.

Adam Jones - FD 4100 DK 4500 DFSTR 7000
Travis Snider - FD 2300 DK 3400 DFSTR 6400
Alejandro de Aza - FD 2400 DK 3600 DFSTR 5400
Steve Pearce - FD 3200 DK 3600 DFSTR 6700
Hector Noesi is about as below average as you can get for an everyday-ish pitcher. He consistently rocks a mid 4's xFIP and strikes out well less than seven batters per nine. He stinks and this is a great hitter's park in Camden Yards. Remains to be seen if they can get the game in, but if so I love the idea of stacking O's bats. Jones is a guy I'll be using quite a bit of considering how bad Noesi's been against righties, but really all of these Baltimore bats are in play.

Jason Heyward - FD 2900 DK 4500 DFSTR 6400
Matt Holliday - FD 3400 DK 4600 DFSTR 6700
I like Heyward much better for the prices, but adding in some CArds' bats against the rookie Severino Gonzalez should have its advantages. It's always tough to evaluate guys right out of the minors, but Gonzalez's numbers weren't even good in Triple A where he struck out less than five batters per nine. Those numbers simply don't play in the majors. Dude could be in trouble.

Melky Cabrera - FD 2300 DK 4300 DFSTR 6800
Because it's a day during the baseball season and he's free.

Strongly consider Jay Bruce

 

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