Baseball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and Draftster 5/4/15
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Clayton Kershaw - FD 11300 DK 12000 DFSTR 11900
Don't let the mid-3's ERA fool you on Kershaw. Not much is different about him this season except that he's running pretty bad in his Babip against and strand rate. Both of those things combined have inflated his ERA as the xFIP is a fantastic 1.93. Kershaw is striking out more than twelve batters per nine innings and walking only two. Those numbers are other-worldly and he remains the best pitcher in the league. He faces a Milwaukee team that has struggled mightily against lefty pitching this season. They are running bad in their own right, but a great hitting team wouldn't be struggling this much even with the luck factor. I'm willing to pay up for Clayton today as I like his matchup much for more than King Felix's.
Travis Wood - FD 7600 DK 7200 DFSTR 6000
He's increased his K% this season and has worked to limit the walks. While I'm not totally buying that Wood is all of a sudden a strikeout an inning pitcher, the price is right on him against the Cardinals. St. Louis is striking out a ton against lefty pitching this season, and while it is still very early, this number does stand out a bit. Wood is very much an average pitcher, but after Kershaw today, the pickings get a little slim.
Evan Gattis - FD 3400 DK 4800
We've been giving you a lot of Evan Gattis lately and dude is making us (and himself) look pretty damn good. He's been a power machine as the Astros have facing a ton of lefties in the last couple of games. He's a platoon monster and really crushes lefty pitching. His biggest weakness is the K but don't worry about that too much against Ross Detwiler who isn't too interested in getting batters to swing and miss.
Yadier Molina - FD 2200 DK 3400 DFSTR 5600
Has seen the price dip this season thanks to a power outage. The Hr/FB rate is zero which could tell you something about his season. I like Molina as a punt play against the lefty as his contact rate is decent enough to withstand some of the power issues. The price is so low that I think you can take a stab at him. I mean he already has five stolen bases. That's more than the majority of other first basement combined. Playing in Coors against a lefty, a split in which he owns a career OPS over 1K, is just the right situation. It's only a price thing from here on out.
Consider Robinson Chirinos
Paul Goldschmidt - FD 6100 DK 5700 DFSTR 8900
His price is pretty much out of bounds, but if you play any pitcher besides the big guys then you probably can take a shot on Goldschmidt even at the elevated salary. The thing here is that he has so much upside considering the park, splits, speed, power. It's really there for Goldy. He's a cash game dream because his skill set lends itself to points across the board.
Freddie Freeman - FD 3400 DK 4200 DFSTR 6600
I want to believe that Aaron Harang stinks, but that is getting harder by the day. I'll take historical context though and that serves to prove that dude is just merely an average to below average arm. Freeman is affordable and above average against righty pitching. Gets a boost because Harang is susceptible to the long ball.
It's dire straits at this position today. And not the Mark Knopfler type. Like real bad.
Robinson Cano - FD 3600 DK 4100 DFSTR 6400
This is probably a slight overpay all things considered, but I'm having trouble making cases for a lot of the other guys at the position. Cano is such a contact beast that I can assume some of the salary risk because his floor is so damn high on any given slate. As long as he's not facing an elite righty (Matt Shoemaker isn't one) then you can get pretty safe money in on Cano. Don't love the ballpark here, but again this position leaves a lot to be desired.
Aaron Hill - FD 2900 DK 4200 DFSTR 3100
Only in play for me on FanDuel as I think the DraftKings price is a bit out of bounds. Hill isn't an everyday player for the D-Backs but here's to hoping he draws the start today against the lefty Matzek. Check his status and his slot in the order. If he's near the bottom I might look somewhere else, but if he's in the top 5-6 then he's a great low cost guy on FanDuel.
Jhonny Peralta - FD 2500 DK 4000 DFSTR 5100
I know I threw Travis Wood out there as a potential arm today, but I think you can still get some Cardinal righties in your lineups today. Peralta is one of those plays coming cheaper at shortstop. He continues to hit in the middle of the order which is more than you can say for most guys at the position. Peralta is pretty platoon neutral for his career though he's slightly better against lefties. Dude doesn't mash, but a career OPS near .800 in that split is great for a shortstop.
Jimmy Rollins - FD 2700 DK 3500 DFSTR 6100
Rollins is getting Babip'd to death this season with a mark in the low .200's. He's never been a big Babip guy but that number is low even for him. I like the matchup against Kyle Lohse who doesn't strike out batters with any sort of regularity. He pitches to contact meaning Rollins should have plenty of opportunities to put the ball in play. Hitting in the two hole for the Dodgers is what gives Rollins most of his value and he's one of the only guys on the team that isn't crushing the ball right now.
Adrian Beltre - FD 2900 DK 4600 DFSTR 6800
I'd venture to say he's a must play on FanDuel today. You simply are getting him too cheap at a thinner position in a split that he's crushed time and again. Beltre's numbers are down this season thanks to a Babip a hundred points off his career average and an infield fly ball rate that probably isn't sustainable. You are getting Beltre at a huge discount considering his career platoons. He's facing Dallas Keuchel whose ERA is nowhere close to his xFIP. Keuchel isn't bad, but he strikes out less than six batters per nine. Good stadium and great prices. Play him.
Yasmany Tomas - FD 3000 DK 4700 DFSTR 6800
He's the one guy that makes things interesting at third on FanDuel and it's mostly because of the park. Tomas has been hitting in and around the middle of the lineup and should be there again against the lefty Matzek. Price has come up like the rest of his teammates as sites correct for Coors, but he remains pretty cheap all things considered.
Kyle Seager - FD 2800 DK 3600 DFSTR 5700
More in play for me on DraftKings considering the price difference between he and Beltre. Seager hits righties well with a career .800 OPS and 127 wRC+ against that split. He's running a little bad this season which has driven down his price across the industry. Matt Shoemaker isn't a real tough righty and Seager's slot behind Cruz and Cano makes for a solid RBI situation for him as long as he sticks there.
George Springer - FD 3900 DK 5200 DFSTR 6800
Chris Carter - FD 2400 DK 4800 DFSTR 5000
The biggest problem for both of these guys is the strikeout rate. Never fear on that front today, as Ross Detwiler K's only about five batters per nine. He doubles down on that terrible-ness by walking a ton of guys. His xFIP is in the mid 6's this season and he's just all around bad. The Astros righties are in a good spot today considering the ballpark plays up power to this side and the opposition stinks. Springer and Carter hit third and fifth respectively while rating out pretty platoon neutral with abover average success against lefties. Like I said, the big thing here is reducing the strikeout potential for both.
Mark Trumbo - FD 4100 DK 4800 DFSTR 6200
A.J. Pollock - FD 3700 DK 4400 DFSTR 7400
Two guys who commit a ton of righty on lefty crime, Trumbo and Pollock both make strong plays against Matzek as they head into Coors. Their prices have adjusted some with the Coors factor, but not enough in my opinion. While they aren't necessarily elite plays because the cost has come up, they are still very safe in this matchup considering the ballpark. Both are worlds better against lefty pitching and I suspect both will be high percentage ownerships today because of the ballpark and splits factors.