Baseball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice

James Davis

Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and Draftster 5/10/15

Full disclaimer - this is a massive slate, and there's no way I could ever possibly list every decent play today. So, I'll do my best in highlighting whom I believe to be the elite plays. If you want the rest? Go ahead and get access to the exclusive projection system that produces these picks. Sign up now and get a free 3 day trial to our lineup construction tool for FanDuel, DraftKings and Draftster.

FantasyBaseball_728x90 (1)




Danny Salazar - FD 7800 DK 8600 DFSTR 3100
I feel like Salazar needs a good nickname, so I'm going to call him Sa-lazer. Nailed it. Feel free to use it wherever. This is a great spot for the Indian's diminutive right hander. First of all, his already great K rate has gone up to a staggering 12.81/9 this season, and he's also improved upon his control. I still feel like he's running bad with BABIP, also. The Twins have the 5th worst K% against righties (22.4%), and Trevor May isn't going to strike fear into the hearts of the hitters trying help Sa-lazer get the W. I love him for both safety and upside today.

Garrett Richards - FD 8700 DK 10200 DFSTR 3100
It's been sort of a weird start to the season for Richards. The peripherals (19 Ks to 12 BBs in 24 IP) are looking pretty bad, and he's been able to get by largely on luck so far. But this early in the season, I don't know that we can say anything has necessarily changed. That makes this a solid buying opportunity. The Astros, while they've managed to hit the ball hard against right handed pitching this season, still have the 2nd worst K % in the majors (23.7%) against right handed pitching. And Richards' strong suit is really depressing SLG - he allowed the lowest slugging percentage in the league last season. He's also up against Scott Feldman, which makes a win more likely than usual.

If you trust the year to dates... Michael Pineda looks interesting against the O's. Third worst K rate in the league, and they're trotting out the shell of Bud Norris. Obviously some bruisers on that team that could make Pineda pay, but it wouldn't shock me if he put up another monster as well.

I won't be playing Felix Hernandez at all. Potentially unpopular opinion, since it's a nice park - but the As have struck out just 16% of the time against righties this year, and they're 7th in the majors in wOBA vs. RHP.



Brian McCann - FD 3200 DK 4000 DFSTR 6300
Bud Norris is having the season from hell, and going against the lefty-heavy Yanks in the hitters' heaven that is Yankee stadium shouldn't go easy for him. McCann's not the guy he once was, but his homer two days ago shows us he's still got some blast left in the bat. He's been .80 OPS points better against right handers over the course of his career, and this should be a nice situation for him.

Yadier Molina - FD 2400 DK 4000 DFSTR 5500
I wrote this about Molina yesterday, before he paid off nicely: His heavy contact approach leaves him with a pretty high floor, and Worley's basically a league average pitch to contact guy. Molina should have the ball in play a ton, and that could mean good things on what amounts to essentially a minimum priced guy. In this game, he'll be up against a worse pitcher who also happens to pitch from the Molina's preferred side of the mound.

Wilson Ramos - FD 2800 DK 3600
After a day off on Saturday, it stands to reason that Ramos will be back behind the plate on Sunday. He'll be up against the left-handed Alex Wood, who hasn't delivered upon the promise he showed last season. Wilson's been a terror on left handed pitching this year, and has an .828 OPS against them over the course of his career. I think this is a nice high-floor play with some ceiling built in as well.

Also considered:Victor Martinez against Chris Young.  

First base

Jose Abreu - FD 3500 DK 5200
Abreu's a little off of last season's Herculean pace, but the Cuban first baseman is still pretty much mashing - slapping another effortless homer on Saturday. On Sunday, he'll be up against Michael Lorenzen. While I am sure Mr. Lorenzen is out there trying his best, you'll pardon me if I'm not scared of a guy who couldn't strike out more than 6 guys per 9 innings in AAA last season. This has the feeling of one of those mismatch games where Abreu goes 8/8 with 3 homers. Or something close to that, anyway!

David Ortiz - FD 3000 DK 4400
Ortiz put up a .364 wOBA against right handers last year in spite of running terribly BABIP wise. Dickey's peripherals are just laughably bad (20 Ks against 16 BBs in 39 IP, YUCK), and while one never knows what will happen when a knuckle-baller is out there, Papi's a huge upside play here.

Lucas Duda - FD 3100 DK 4000
From yestderday's picks: Duda's basically the Alexa Avila of first basemen. He can't hit lefties (.642 OPS against them for his career - my God), but he's .190 OPS points better against right handers, and he'll be facing one of those tonight. Well, Duda didn't deliver, but that's kind of what he does from time to time. This is an upside play, pure and simple. In a friendly hitters' park in Philly, against a guy who had his best stuff leave him half a decade ago, the upside is undeniable.

Also considered: Albert Pujols.


Second base

Robinson Cano - FD 3400 DK 4600
Jesse Chavez is a fine pitcher and all, but Cano has been head and shoulders above his peers at 2B at hitting right handed pitching for years. His .891 OPS against northpaws last season was fantastic, and while he hasn't knocked anyone's socks of this season, a player this consistent won't be held down for long.

Chase Utley - FD 2400 DK 3800
If Utley was a man of faith before this season, he's got to be at least questioning by now. I've honestly never seen a BABIP number so low at this point in the season - his .079 number is pitcheresque. And it's not like he's making bad contact - 3 of his 9 hits have been homers. It's just that the contact he is making is finding glove after glove. It stands to reason that that will change at some point (unless we live in the Twilight Zone), and while Bartolon Colon has been oddly amazing this year, our projection system isn't ready to crown him just yet. I don't mind Utley at home in any format.

Dustin Pedroia - FD 2900 DK 4000
For the same reason we recommended Ortiz. Pedroia prefers lefties, but facing a right hander like Dickey sort of defies normal platoon splits. Plus, guys like Ortiz and Sandoval get such a bump vs. RHP that Pedroia's counting stats should all fare better when the Sox face a RHP. If Dickey is washed, and I think he is, Pedroia's a fine play for a good price.

Also considered: Neil Walker. He doesn't prefer left handed pitching, but "Tyler Lyons" could be run by the 3rd inning.



Jimmy Rollins - FD 3200 DK 4500
Wrote this about Rollins last night: Rollins is not actually an incredible value at this price, but he's still a very good value. And really, this is just an ideal match-up for anyone. Rollins' season line looks like trash, but all of the Rollins-ish things we've come to expect are there. 3 homers is a fine total, and 3 steals is great considering how little he's been on base. The game was rained out, so this all applies on Sunday as well.

Jean Segura - FD 2600 DK 3900
Segura's sort of a boring player to root for, but so is every shortstop this side of Troy Tulowitzki, so chill. Segura's show plus speed this season, and against the stuff-less Kyle Hendricks, he should have plenty of on-base opportunity. SBs and runs scored are all in play, which makes this a pretty good safety and upside play for the position.

Brad Miller - FD 2300 DK 3600
Miller's season line looks pretty awful, just like usual, but his price and general performance are so depressed by his inability to do anything against left handed pitching that it starts to color things. He's 2/23 against lefties this season, but he has put together an .812 OPS against right handers. That's a fine amount of production to get for near minimum prices, and I'll likely take advantage if I decide I just want to get away from the position super-cheap.

Also considered: Jung-Ho Kang in a good platoon spot against a weak pitcher.

Third base

Adrian Beltre - FD 2800 DK 4700
In the interest of full disclosure, our system loves every Ranger against Bellatti tonight. Even more disclosure - I'd never heard of Andrew Bellatti before this season, and I play in a fantasy league where Doug and I owned Carlos Rodon when he was 17 years old. It's been a bad start to the season for Beltre, but that's just made him super affordable. There are some troubling signs - the ISO is a mess - but there's a lot of bad luck built into this line as well. His .238 BABIP is .60 points off his career number, and .90 points off what he's established as his norms as a Ranger.

Mike Moustakas - FD 2800 DK 2500
I'm doing my best to slow my own roll on Moustakas' BABIP fueled coming out party this season, but it ain't easy. Moose has the prospect pedigree to justify this kind of performance, and if he's really cut his K rate in half, we could be looking at a brand new player. He's .80 OPS points better against RHP for his career, and Shane Greene and his 21 Ks against 10 BBs in 36 IP qualify him as a solidly below average right handed pitcher. I love Moustakas for upside, and dare I say it, I don't mind him for safety as well.

Pablo Sandoval - FD 2900 DK 4400
The season triple-slash is still yuck, but that's largely fueled by a 2/29 embarrassment against LHP so far. Thankfully, RA Dickey throws the ball with his right hand, and against people who do that, Sandoval's put together an impressive .948 OPS. Could be a monster game.

Also considered: If you want to go cheap, Josh Harrison is another bad luck BABIP all star. It's a super-plus match-up with Tyler Lyons, and he could finally start getting off the schneid here.



Andrew McCutchen - FD 3900 DK 5000
It's rare to get a hitter of McCutchen's caliber at these prices in a match-up this good. Tyler Lyons has certainly flashed plus stuff at various times in his career, but the converted left handed reliever is just going to be praying for good luck against McCutchen. Unless you think a guy who has put up a .983 OPS against left handed pitching for his career has suddenly turned bad in his age 28 season, McCutchen should be a part of every single line-up you make tomorrow.

Melky Cabrera - FD 2800 DK 4400
Any proper stack against Michael Lorenzen needs to contain the Melk-Man. His price has crept up since we started beating his drum a couple of weeks ago, but he's still priced very affordably. He's got more walks than strike outs this season, and while the lack of power is somewhat troubling, there's just no chance his ISO will finish the season at .050. I'm still a buyer.

Brandon Moss - FD 3300 DK 4500
Our projection system has some serious hate in its heart of Trevor May, and who can blame it? May allowed an absurd 7.88 ERA last year before getting run out of the majors, and while he's shown significant improvement this year, we're still waiting to see who he really is. Moss, for his career, has an OPS .66 points higher against right handed pitching. Very affordable spot to grab him here.

Jayson Werth - FD 3100 DK 4000
We gave you Werth the last time he faced a lefty, and he went 2/4 with a homer. He'll be out there plying his lefty-crushing trade against Alex Wood in this one, and I have no reason to believe he won't continue his career long devastation of left handed pitching in this one. He put up a .933 OPS against southpaws last season, for a frame of reference, which basically means he's 15% or so under what his true price should be. Buy. Buy!

Matt Kemp - FD 3300 DK 4600
Well, he's getting it done from a fantasy perspective in an unusual way this year - relying on his legs again and leaving aside the power. But, the underlying skills are still there. And with Myers & Upton's prices drifting upward, Kemp is the best buy among the Dads' right handed outfielders. Collmenter's pitch-to-contact style helps eliminate Kemp's major weakness (the K), and he could have a huge game here.

Your daily dose of cheap OF options: Carlos Beltran, Michael Bourn, Adam Eaton.


Be sure to try out a free 3-day trial to the projection system that helps produce these picks for the MLB! And check out our free MLB ebook below.

NBA eBook

FREE eBook with our Secrets to Crushing Daily Fantasy Baseball!

* indicates required

DFSR Baseball E-Book


Post a Reply




Our free NBA and MLB eBooks, and picks to your inbox every day!

Your eBooks are on their way!