Baseball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings 6/10/15
Fair warning on the early slate. I'm not playing it. The pitching situation with only three games is a disaster and I'm not feeling this mini slate as a whole. I'll throw some plays out that our system likes, but buyer beware.
Consider Gio Gonzalez but oof.
Tyson Ross - FD 9200 DK 9300
Pitching is tough sledding on this slate so I'm not super confident with some of these plays. With Ross you are going to need to take some of the good with some of the bad. The good is that he strikes out more than ten batters per inning and is a groundball machine with a 63% rate in that batted ball profile. The bad is the rest of the time he is walking batters and running up pitch counts. Ross struggles to last long in games because of this and limits his upside by making exits by the sixth inning. The Braves are a middle of the pack team against righties though they don't strike out tons. Ross is a necessary evil here.
Matt Harvey - FD 11000 DK 10700
I'll start by saying that I think he's an overpay on FanDuel. It's not as bad on DraftKings, but he's still expensive. But what you are paying for is the by far, the best pitcher on the slate. This is closer than usual for paying for the power arm because the Giants are one of the best teams in the league at hitting righty pitching and rarely strike out. This kills some of Harvey's upside relative to his price. I don't love it, but I think others will. You can make the case for fading him because of the tag, but I'd be remiss to not mention him on this slate.
Jose Quintana - FD 7600 DK 6800
Though I'll recommend some Astros later on in this writeup, I think Quintana has some merit on this slate. He's about as average as they come with whiffs of strikeout upside. That comes into play against the Astros who K an ungodly 25% of the time against lefties this season. He's only a GPP play because he could easily get rocked here. But if you want to shoot the moon for cheap I'd take a chance on him.
Consider Russell Martin
Yasmani Grandal - FD 2900 DK 3200
Jeremy Hellickson is a below average pitcher who doesn't K many batters and walks more than three per nine. Grandal K's close to 19% of the time, but oh that walk rate. He's taking free passes at a 15% clip, among the best in the league for catchers (or really anyone). Grandal's power came mostly in one game, but as a cash game play, hitting just below the middle of the lineup he makes a solid consideration here.
We've got a big old log jam at catcher with a lot of guys coming at similar points/$ plays and price points. I'd seriously consider Jonathon Lucroy, Miguel Montero and Welington Castillo at catcher on this slate.
Logan Morrison - FD 2300 DK 3200
The big thing for Lo-Mo would be hitting leadoff like he did last night. If this is the case, dude is coming at the minimums (or near them) and would have a great matchup against who has wild tendencies (with pitching, I don't know what he's like in his personal life). Morrison is above average for his career against righty pitching with a 1123 wRC+. Bauer issues a ton of walks and getting a leadoff hitter in this spot, at these prices would allow you to overpay a bit for pitching if you needed to.
Chris Davis - FD 3100 DK 3900
Rick Porcello's been giving up a decent amount of flyballs this season and that's a big no-no for Camden Yards where lefty power is among the highest in the league. Crush is obviously a ridiculous strikeout candidate where his 35% K rate is almost beyond the pale. But I love the matchup in a tournament if you want to buy on his upside. Not a safe play by any means.
Also consider Chris Carter for home run upside.
Consider Chase Utley
Robinson Cano - FD 2300 DK 3800
Ugh. I hate to do it of course. And, without looking, I'm pretty sure a couple of weeks ago I said that the lowest you'd see the guy is $2600. Oops. But now he's a min priced player batting third in the order against a pitcher who struggles with control at times. In some ways, I don't think this should be that tough of an answer unless he's struggling with injury which could be the case. There isn't a ton of downside now that's he's essentially a punt play. But something is up with Cano.
Ben Zobrist - FD 2600 DK 3600
Another guy I like in cash games who we've been writing about since he came back from injury. He's struggled some, but the A's appear committed to keeping him near the top of the order and that will serve him well against Yovani Gallardo who strikes out less than 6.5 batters per nine. Zobrist's price is lower because of a .203 BABIP to start the season. That's a lot of run bad to drive a price into the gutter.
Consider Jose Altuve
Consider Freddy Galvis
Erick Aybar - FD 2400 DK 3400
As long as the Angels hit him in the leadoff spot, I'm going to be buying Aybar at these prices as long as he's not facing an elite arm. Erasmo Ramirez isn't such an arm. His xFIP is right around four and has never been much of a threat. Aybar is ho-hum hitter all things considered. But he has a solid contact rate, though the K's are up a bit this season. No power to speak of, but again, hitting leadoff in front of a guy like Trout will always carry value especially if he's at the minimums.
Alcides Escobar - FD 2300 DK 3900
On this slate (and most slates) spend nothing on shortstop and move on with your otherwise amazing life. Escobar, like Aybar, is one of those few shortstops not hitting ninth for his team. He stinks at actual hitting. But gets to make up for it over his shortstop cronies because he gets an extra plate appearance or so every game. That kind of volume matters when most shortstops are trying to luckbox their way into a hit.
Consider Petitioning DFS sites to remove shortstop
Consider Chase Headley
Mike Moustakas - FD 2400 DK 4000
I promise we are going to spend some money in a bit. I promise. I know a lot of these guys have been cheap today. But there's some bigger salaries coming in the outfield and I think you do have to save a little to overspend some on pitching. Moose is having a solid year with a mid .800's OPS thanks to a reduction in his K's and a little BABIP help. The K expectation lowers even more in this matchup against Kyle Gibson who's adverse to the whole concept of striking people out. Feels bad for them or something and puts down only five batters per nine. Nice play to buy on a two hitter in a lineup.
Kyle Seager - FD 2900 DK 3900
Given a few Mariners plays tonight but that's mostly because I have no love for Trevor Bauer. Just think the guy walks too many guys and has trouble hanging on long in games. Seager is a guy who does much of the same thing year in and year out. He has decent power but doesn't get on base a ton. He's lowered the K rate some this season, and the walks are right in line with his career average. Should see a slight bump in that area tonight against Bauer.
Consider Trevor Plouffe
Mike Trout - FD 5000 DK 5400
This is for sure paying up on this slate. But I think you can splurge on Trout. He's a cut above others in a similar price tier. He's having a prototypical Trout season with .930 OPS and just general focus on crushing it. He'll face one of the weaker pitchers on the slate in Erasmo Ramirez and Trout's always been an even splits guy with a slight bump toward facing righties. Trout is expensive yes. But you are saving a ton on the infielder spots today where I don't think you need to pay up almost anywhere. Trout is Trout. I won't expound anymore on the superlatives. System thinks he's play.
George Springer - FD 3500 DK 4400
He's basically Adam Dunn who hits leadoff and steals bases. Springer strikes out a ton, but also walks at a 15% rate. He hits for power with a solid .183 ISO and also runs once he's on the bases. He faces Jose Quintana, a decent pitcher for sure. But this is a great hitter's park in U.S. Cellular Field, one of the best power parks for righty hitters in the whole league.
Will Venable - FD 2500 DK 3600
Been playing him all over the place the last couple of days and it's been paying for sure. And the price refuses to move. Venable is hitting leadoff for the Padres and making the most of it. Went yard last night and has shown flashes of power. The leadoff spot is insanely valuable in DFS and there's no mistake why you see a lot of these guys show up in our system. That kind of plate appearance expectation makes up for a bunch of possible downside.
Michael Bourn - FD 2200 DK 3500
Speaking of leadoff hitters, he's back to the top of the lineup when facing righties. That's the whole story for him at these prices as long as he can get on base and get to running. More of a cash game play for me because he has almost zero power.
Consider Hanley Ramirez