Nascar picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice

    Chris Durell

    Daily Fantasy Nascar Picks
    Quicken Loans 400

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    Quicken Loans 400

    Michigan International Speedway - Brooklyn, MI

    Welcome back for another week of Daily Fantasy Nascar. Pocono is in the rearview and the Hendrick Motorsports team streak of wins there ended at 5. Jimmie Johnson ended up being the only Hendrick driver to post a Top 10(3rd). The big winner on the day was Martin Truex Jr. He has been sniffing for that win all season and finally got it for the Furniture Row Racing team. Shout out to his crew chief as well. Canadian Cole Pearn earned his first Nascar victory as a crew chief.

    When looking at the Draftkings results last week it was a successful cash game week but faultered on the GPP side as I had shares of Newman and Stenhouse throughout most of my lineups. The biggest thing I noticed about the GPP tournaments on Draftkings last week was that the most successful lineups were heavy stars and scrubs. The majority of the top lineups were compiled of three stars and two scrubs. This is a strategy that is risky but definitely can pay off. The winning lineup in the "Slingshot" had Landon Cassill, Ty Dillon, Kevin Harvick, Martin Truex Jr., and Matt Kenseth. Going into the race I would not have felt comfortable with that at all. Needless to say I will be trying this strategy out this week.

    This week Nascar and it's teams head Michigan International Speedway for the Quicken Loans 400. Michigan rates as the fastest track on the circuit running 2 miles long with 18 degree banking. The track provides drivers with 3 or sometimes 4 different lines to run as the track is 73 feet wide. The race here frequently turns into a fuel mileage race as the laps run long and there seems to always be plenty of green flag racing. In last years races in Michigan starting position proved very important as 6 drivers(Spring Race) and 7 drivers(Fall Race) that finished in the Top started there. Qualifying will be very important this week so be sure to check my article for updates on Saturday after qualifying and practices are over.

    Tier 1 Targets (DK Price $11,000-$13,900)

    Kevin Harvick - $13,900
    Vegas Odds - 4-1
    Sprint Cup Standings – 1st
    Practice #1 - 1st(202.492 mph)
    Practice #2 - 1st(201.084 mph)
    Practice #3 - 5th(198.358 mph)
    Qualified - 2nd
    How can you not put Harvick in the #1 hole this week? He is leading Nascar points and seems to finish in the Top 2 every week. He has more than double the fast laps of anyone else this year and almost double the laps led of any other driver. He finished runner up in both races here last year and has a 6 race average finish of 5.7(best in field).

    Joey Logano - $11,200
    Vegas Odds - 12-1
    Sprint Cup Standings – 4th
    Practice #1 - 2nd(201.607 mph)
    Practice #2 - 15th(198.189 mph)
    Practice #3 - 13th(197.742 mph)
    Qualified - 11th
    I debated between Penske teammates this week and ended up going with Logano. In his last 6 races at Michigan he has 1 win, 2 Top 5's, and 4 Top 10's with an average finish of 14.7. Logano has led the 4th most laps this and has an average starting position of 6th. Logano hasn't finished outside 13th in the past month. I nice savings from the top guys in the Tier with the same winning upside.

    Tier 2 Targets (DK Price $9400-$10,900)

    Paul Menard - $9700
    Vegas Odds - 40-1
    Sprint Cup Standings - 11th
    Practice #1 - 19th(198.271 mph)
    Practice #2 - 24th(196.942 mph)
    Practice #3 - 21st(196.888 mph)
    Qualified - 17th
    When looking for a solid cash game play this week look in Menard's direction. Before finishing 31st last week he notched 4 Top 20's and 2 Top 10's. Combine that with his 6 race average finish here of 9.5 with 3 Top 5's and 4 Top 10's and you have a solid pick.

    Greg Biffle - $9400
    Vegas Odds - 60-1
    Sprint Cup Standings - 18th
    Practice #1 - 20th(197.927 mph)
    Practice #2 - 28th(196.292 mph)
    Practice #3 - 24th(196.121 mph)
    Qualified - 21st
    Biffle comes into Michigan running pretty consistently posting 4 Top 20 finishes in his last 5 races. He has a 6 race average finish of 7.5 with 2 Wins, 3 Top 5's and 5 Top 10's. He flat out loves this track and if he can find speed early in the weekend, look out for him capture his first win of 2015 and lock himself in the Chase.

    Tier 3 Targets (DK Price $7800-$9100)

    Clint Bowyer - $8700
    Vegas Odds - 100-1
    Sprint Cup Standings - 17th
    Practice #1 - 27th(197.055 mph)
    Practice #2 - 23rd(196.958 mph)
    Practice #3 - 26th(195.886 mph)
    Qualified - 32nd
    Much like Biffle in a Tier above, Bowyer comes back to Michigan with a nice record here. In his previous 6 races here he has finished in the Top 10 every time and has an average finish of 7th. He has been nothing short of mediocre in 2015 but hasn't finished worse than 22 in 4 straight weeks and has a Top 10 two weeks ago. Bowyer could make a nice cash game play with some salary relief from the top two tiers.

    Tier 4 Target (DK Pricing $7000-$7700)

    Sam Hornish Jr. - $7400
    Vegas Odds - 501-1
    Sprint Cup Standings - 26th
    Practice #1 - 26th(197.082 mph)
    Practice #2 - 32nd(195.525 mph)
    Practice #3 - 32nd(194.895 mph)
    Qualified - 30th
    My long shot for this week is Sam Hornish Jr. He came in 41st last week but before that finished 22nd, 24th, 16th, 6th in his previous 4 races. He hasn't raced here since 2012 where he finished 12th. He will be one of the scrubs I will be using this week in GPP formats.

    ***PRACTICE #1 TOP 10***
    1. #4 Kevin Harvick
    2. #22 Joey Logano
    3. #78 Martin Truex Jr.
    4. #11 Denny Hamlin
    5. #24 Jeff Gordon
    6. #48 Jimmie Johnson
    7. #5 Kasey Kahne
    8. #19 Carl Edwards
    9. #88 Dale Earnhardt Jr.
    10. #21 Ryan Blaney
    For a complete list of Practice #1 speeds click HERE

    ***Qualifying Order Top 10***
    1. #5 Kasey Kahne
    2. #4 Kevin Harvick
    3. #2 Brad Keselowski
    4. #19 Carl Edwards
    5. #21 Ryan Blaney
    6. #24 Jeff Gordon
    7. #3 Austin Dillon
    8. #48 Jimmie Johnson
    9. #78 Martin Truex Jr.
    10. #18 Kyle Busch
    For a complete list of the Qualifying Order click HERE

    ***Practice #2 Top 10***
    1. #4 Kevin Harvick
    2. #5 Kasey Kahne
    3. #42 Kyle Larson
    4. #18 Kyle Busch
    5. #78 Martin Truex Jr.
    6. #88 Dale Earnhardt Jr.
    7. #11 Denny Hamlin
    8. #24 Jeff Gordon
    9. #41 Kurt Busch
    10. #48 Jimmie Johnson
    For a complete list for Practice #2 click HERE

    ***Practice #3 Top 10***
    1. #24 Jeff Gordon
    2. #18 Kyle Busch
    3. #78 Martin Truex Jr.
    4. #42 Kyle Larson
    5. #4 Kevin Harvick
    6. #88 Dale Earnhardt Jr.
    7. #48 Jimmie Johnson
    8. #19 Carl Edwards
    9. #2 Brad Keselowski
    10. #11 Denny Hamlin
    For a complete list for Final Practice click HERE

    Kevin Harvick has proven fast throughout the weekend once again. He is the only driver with a combined 3 practice speed above 200 mph. Look for Harvick to run up front all day. Martin Truex Jr. finished second when combining all practice speeds together. With him being the 5th most expensive driver on Draftkings, I don't see how you leave him off your lineup right now. Hendrick drivers Jeff Gordon and Kasey Kahne have also showed alot of speed this weekend throughout practice. Kahne will be starting from the front this week and with speed should lead some laps and get some fastest lap bonuses as well. For this weeks place differential values I am looking at Kyle Larson(Qual-16th, Combined Pract-9th), Kurt Busch(Qual-24th, Combined Pract-15th), and Clint Bowyer(Qual-32nd, Combined Pract-25th).

    Want to see how these picks and more fit into lineups for the Quicken Loans 400? Chris is selling his lineups plus a cheatsheet for $5. Just click the link below. This is a separate service than our traditional monthly membership.

    Chris Durell has been playing Daily Fantasy Sports for three years and fantasy in general for more than a decade. He is active player in college football, NFL, NBA, PGA, and of course NASCAR. He lives in Saskatchewan, Canada with his wife and two daughters. You can follow him on Twitter at @jager_bombs9 for advice, strategy, answers to any NASCAR questions or how he copes with the winters up north.


    image sources

    • 2048px-NASCAR_practice: By U.S. Air Force photo by Larry McTighe [Public domain], via Wikimedia Commons

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