Baseball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and Draftster 6/23/15
Man there are a ton of ace level pitchers going on this slate and I can't imagine a scenario in which you fade them all. That being said, none of them are really standing out for me on this slate. Their matchups are rough and some are even facing each other.
Madison Bumgarner - FD 10900 DK 11200
It's pretty amazing but this guy basically turns in the same exact season year in and year out. The peripherals always seem to look the same and he is a model of consistency as far as pitchers go. Of the big money guys today, he's the one I feel the most comfortable rolling out in cash games. He's a heavy favorite for the win, faces a Padres team striking out more than 23% of the time against lefty pitching that ranks middle of the pack in team wOBA. Bumgarner doesn't post elite strikeout numbers, but he does limit the walks and the xFIP is right around three. The ballpark helps as well for depressing power to righties.
Zack Greinke - FD 10500 DK 10500
If you want to shoot a little K upside Greinke could be your guy on this slate. The Cubs are a middle of the road team in their wOBA platoon split against righties this season and strike out a whipping 25% of the time. That number is incredibly high and though Greinke isn't a crazy K upside guy (especially for this price) the matchup is enticing for a tournament. Whenever you get a team this free swinging, you can try to take advantage in a top end payout structure. I don't think he's a safe option by any means, but there's the potential to rack up K's.
Jeff Samardzija - FD 8600 DK 8000
This one's more about the matchup. The Twins come in the bottom third of the league against righty pitching this season and the ballpark plays about average for power. What Samardzija lacks in big time strikeout stuff he somewhat makes up for in his overall peripherals with a 5:1 K:BB rate. The lack of walks keeps him around in games longer. This can help stem the tide and his price won't kill you today.
Carlos Martinez - FD 9500 DK 8300
I think he's a little overpriced on FanDuel, but definitely in play on DraftKings as a second arm to pair with one of the other bigger money guys. Martinez is different than Samardzija above in that he strikes more batters out but also walks almost double per nine. The latter piece can effect his longevity and limits the upside some. Good matchup against the Marlins though who rank in the bottom of the league against righties.
Consider C.C. Sabathia
Salvador Perez - FD 2400 DK 3900
With so many big arms going on this slate we need to target the weakest of the bunch whenever possible. Mike Montgomery is one such dude. He strikes out only four batters per nine and has an xFIP close to five. I know the sample size is small, but good pitchers don't do this no matter how few innings (unless they rhyme with Pineda from last night). Perez is better for his career against lefty pitching and coming near punt prices. Not a fantastic hitter at this point, but the downside won't kill you.
Brian McCann - FD 3600 DK 4800
Going to have to pay up a bit more for McCann on this slate, but it might be worth it considering the matchup. Sean O'Sullivan really struggles to put batters away and McCann's putting together a bounce back season. Last year the BABIP bit him bad, but with that running more normal he's got an OPS over .800, .355 wOBA and .213 ISO. Basically he's back to the old McCann. Not a tremendous deal, and very expensive on DraftKings but few other catchers have as good a matchup in a hitter's park.
Strongly consider Jonathon Lucroy
Jose Abreu - FD 3400 DK 4800
Adam LaRoche - FD 2200 DK 4100
You know we really like these guys around the DFSR offices. You have to know this by now, right? I don't love that Big Pelf induces a ton of ground balls and the ballpark in Minnesota isn't necessarily a hitter's haven. But Pelfrey also doesn't induce a ton of strikeouts and isn't a good pitcher by average major league metrics. Neither of these guys will break the bank for you and both have power upside. With Laroche you need to grin and bear the hitter's profile. And Abreu isn't quite the hitter he was last season, but the prices are in line with these narratives.
Mark Teixeira - FD 3400 DK 4500
He's having a fantastic season and yet I don't feel like we've written a ton about Tex this season. The OPS is over .900 thanks to a run hot .305 ISO. He won't keep that up for sure, but does get a great matchup against Sean O'Sullivan today. O'Sullivan's xFIP is over 5.00 and he has trouble striking anyone out. We all know at this point that the short right field porch in Yankee Stadium is oh so inviting for lefty power and Tex's taken advantage. Another great matchup to feast on.
Consider David Ortiz
Robinson Cano - FD 2400 DK 3600
I know. I know. I've become one of the worst Robbie Cano apologists around. I'm sure everyone is sick of it by now. And the second you see the Mariners drop him to like sixth in the order then believe me, you'll never hear about him again. But I've been buying on him for some time and I don't think I'm going to stop now. He went yard last night (too little too late for some, I know) and today has a fantastic matchup against Jeremy Guthrie, a pitcher with a plus 5 xFIP striking out less than 4.5 batters per nine. It's basically the perfect scenario for Cano. Keep buying here. I'm telling you.
Neil Walker - FD 2500 DK 3000
The Reds are calling up Josh Smith who has some decent enough minor league numbers but is far from a prospect and is making his first major league start. In situations like this you bet on the hitter almost every time. Walker's been sitting lately with an illness but I think you see him back in the lineup today. When he plays he hits near the top of the order. His power numbers are down this season which has killed some of his upside, but I like the matchup.
Kolten Wong - FD 3000 DK 4300
Been one of my favorite plays of late thanks to a slight price dip in the short term. He isn't exceptional in any one phase of the offensive game, but won't kill you either. Has hints of power and speed and batting leadoff for the Cardinals is an incredible advantage. I wish he took a few more walks, but makes up for that some by keeping the K rate lower. Oh and remember, Jose Urena stinks.
Marcus Semien - FD 2300 DK 3900
The A's have moved him back to second in the order and though he isn't a fantastic hitter, dude's not exactly a bottom-feeder either. Semien has an OPS over .700 for the season, no small feat for a shortstop and does have little bits of power. Again, like many shortstops who we recommend, the main benefit to Semien is hitting so close to the top of lineup. When he gets an extra half at bat expectation over most other shortstops, the benefits outweigh some of his offensive deficiencies.
Ian Desmond - FD 2300 DK 3400
You need to do a quick mental and emotional prep session to deal with the possibility of him striking out 4 times in one game, a definite possibility for this guy. He's better against lefty pitching for his career though and is a bit tougher to strike out in that platoon. (20.7% as compared to 24%). Alex Wood isn't a terrible pitcher, but he doesn't dial up the K's as high as some other pitchers on this slate. Desmond's seen the ISO dip some this season which becomes a problem for the dude because power is one of his major value adds. The other is speed though he isn't stealing any bases either. Those signs don't look great of course, but they've driven the price down to a point at which you can buy.
Consider Alcides Escobar
Kyle Seager - FD 3000 DK 3500
A nice sign for Seager this season is he's cut down his K rate to some degree. That helps in some of the contact expectation and he's been much better for his career against righty pitching. He has a 125 wRC+ and .800 OPS against that split for his career and is in a great spot against Jeremy Guthrie. Seager, as long as he's hitting in the top six of the order makes for a safe cash game play at these prices. He's especially a deal on DraftKings where he's coming super cheap.
Chase Headley - FD 2500 DK 3900
With so many good pitchers going on this slate you want to find as many value plays as possible. Headley is one such guy since the Yankees insist on hitting him second. That of course is his big value add because it certainly isn't entirely through the bat. Headley's struggling in a number of different areas with the OPS under .700. But some of that is washed away (considering the prices) with his batting order placement. He faces Sean O'Sullivan who even with a nice performance against the O's last time out, still isn't much of a threat.
David Peralta - FD 2500 DK 4300
It isn't easy getting cheap money in on Coors but Peralta is one guy FanDuel missed on this slate. He's a near punt play and hopefully will hit second in the lineup again today against the righty. Peralta is an extreme splits guy who really only plays against right-handed pitching. And he's an above average dude in that split. This season he's sporting a 109 wRC+ in that platoon with an OPS creeping toward .800. Neither of these will blow your doors off, but at the $2500 tag you need to sit up and take notice. I suspect, if in the lineup, he's the highest owned player on FD today.
Josh Reddick - FD 3100 DK 4700
One thing to remember about Chi-Chi Gonzalez is though you see that 0.90 ERA, the skill set is something much, much worse. The xFIP is about five runs higher (about as big a difference as you'll ever see even in this smaller sample size). Dude doesn't strike anyone out and has been served with a .183 BABIP against. I like getting some A's in stacks on this slate with the ballpark really helping things. Reddick is very tough to strike out this season with a K rate under 10%. He's OPS-ing over .800 on the season and hitting near the top of the order.
Carlos Beltran - FD 2900 DK 3900
For his career Beltran is a platoon neutral guy though over the last two seasons he's had significantly more success against righty pitching. Let's hope that continues today against Sean O'Sullivan. Beltran is coming very cheap and though he hits a little lower in the lineup than I would like from a cash game play, he has such a solid matchup in a great hitter's park.
Chris Parmelee - FD 2500 DK 3200
In contention for lineups today if, and only if, he sticks in the top four of the Orioles batting order with Adam Jones possibly coming back. Check in on this one closer to game time when lineups post, but I would love getting a cheap dude with hints of power upside rolling in the three hole against Joe Kelly. Fenway knocks down power some to lefties, but Parmalee's coming so cheap that you can take the risk.