Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings 7/10/15

Big Friday slate and we've got you covered. This one isn't easy as most of the big pitchers are facing each other and it gets real dicey with some of their prices.

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Pitchers

This is a very weird day for pitching. Many of the top arms are facing each other and in not-so-solid matchups which muddies the waters quite a bit. Feeling like even on this big slate we are going to need to pick some of the pitchers off the margins.

Noah Syndergaard - FD 8400 DK 8200
A couple of things working in Syndergaard's favor in this matchup. First off, the ballpark. CitiField plays really well for pitchers and helps to depress power across the board. Plus the Diamondbacks are a middle of the road team against righties and that doesn't even account for them playing in one of the best hitter's parks in baseball half of the time. The reality is worse. Syndergaard has put up fantastic peripherals this season striking out more than a batter an inning and walking less than two in the same amount. He is coming somewhat discounted relative to the rest of the slate.

Collin McHugh - FD 8400 DK 8700
I wish the strikeouts were just a little higher on the season, but he's still in play today. Like Syndergaard above, McHugh has the advantage of pitching in a fantastic park, Tropicana Field. It limits the power just about as good as any other park in the majors. Plus the Rays rank 25th in the league in team wOBA against righty pitching this season and have so little pop in their lineup. McHugh makes up for the lack of K's somewhat by keeping the walks in check. His xFIP is in the 3's (barely) and I've got him going here mostly as a midrange price play.

Cole Hamels - FD 9800 DK 10700
Another price play. It would feel odd getting his salary in with Bumgarner opposing him (and Cole's DK price is off the table for me), but he's in a solid matchup all things considered. The Giants rank in the bottom halfof the league against lefties this season and Cole gets knocked some because his wins are so hard to come by. That'll be the case again today, but his peripherals are so solid striking out more than a batter an inning and walking less than two and a half. His xFIP's in the low 3's and he's been solid. It's the win expectation that is shaky here.

Mike Bolsinger - FD 6300 DK 6600
He's been a damn good pitcher this season. The 3.27 xFIP and nearly 3:1 K:BB ratio play well at these prices against the Brewers who are a middling team against righties. Really like Bolsinger as a second option on DK for his price, allowing you to load up on expensive bats.

A note on Bumgarner. He's way too expensive I think on this slate even facing the Phillies. They haven't been atrocious against lefties this season and having Hamels on the opposite bump makes his win expectation a little lower.

 

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Catchers

Derek Norris - FD 2400 DK 3700
Norris' true calling is hitting against lefties. Over the last two seasons he's posted a 141 wRC+ and .369 wOBA which rates out as one of the better splits in the league. Today he plays in the Ballpark in Arlington which rates as above average for righty power. Wandy Rodriguez, as average a pitcher as there is in the majors. Norris' price stays in check because he's only about average against righties and plays half his games in a pitcher's park. Here you are getting him at a discount.

Yasmani Grandal - FD 3600 DK 4100
Because I think you can go cheaper at pitcher today, paying up for someone like Grandal isn't the worst thing in the world. He hit cleanup for the Dodgers last night, a bump in the order that really helps. Hitting righties is his forte with an OPS over .800 over the last couple of years in that split. Grandal takes a ton of walks which will help against a pitcher like Jimmy Nelson who's prone to walks on the wild side.

Consider Alex Avila

 

 

First base

Lucas Duda - FD 2200 DK 3900
He's mired in a terrible slump over the short term and it's depressed his price all the way down to the minimum on FanDuel. Fantastic time to buy there. Duda's been solid over the last couple of seasons against righty pitching with a 141 wRC+. That's one of the better numbers in the league with this split. He'll strike out, but also take walks. That plays well against Chase Anderson, a low K guy with a low 4's xFIP. Not quite the same deal on DraftKings, but in play there as well.

Adrian Gonzalez - FD 3500 DK 4500
He's been in the picks quite a bit lately thanks to a lower price on both sites. Still hitting third in the order and been one of the best bats in the league against righy pitching over the last two seasons with an OPS over .900 in that split. His considerations are basically the same as Grandal's with the matchup against Nelson. We can continue buying on the lower end here in a matchup against a non-elite arm.

Strongly consider Edwin Encarnacion on the high end and Justin Bour on the lower end.

 

Second base

Dee Gordon - FD 3100 DK 4800
Too steep on DraftKings, but will be one of the highest-owned players on FanDuel today. Gordon's speed is the real key here as it gives him almost a power hitter's upside. He's basically an average hitter against righties, but the stolen bases make him elite. Last night's game being a good example. He has over 30 stolen bases already this season and has a ticket to run whenever he's on base. It's actually the OBP that keeps him a little in check because he doesn't take many walks at all. Still, that FanDuel price is too low to pass up.

Devon Travis - FD 3200 DK 3700
It isn't much of a sample size, but there's evidence mounting that this guy can rake lefty pitching. He has an OPS over .900 with a wOBA over .400 in that platoon. He's back from injury now and today the Jays face Danny Duffy, a below average arm without much K potential and an elevated walk rate. Travis hit leadoff today with Reyes out, but I don't expect that to stick. (Though if he's there today he becomes the clear DraftKings play) but can still do damage in the second half of the lineup. I would definitely play Gordon over him on FanDuel, but Travis is in play.

Strongly consider Jason Kipnis if you go cheaper at pitcher.

 

Shortstop

Francisco Lindor - FD 2300 DK 3100
Been writing about him as a play for quite some time now, didn't do it last night and he of course hits a home run. We'd mentioned how Lindor was running real bad in the BABIP department and with even a slight correction there he stood to be a bargain at these prices. Hitting second in the order, at near the minimums is a luxury few shortstops can claim. He's sandwiched in between two fantastic hitters and the plate appearance expectation alone is enough to swing the tide in his favor. Feels like money gets in on the safer side considering some of those pieces of the puzzle.

Ian Desmond - FD 2200 DK 3700
Don't get me wrong, he stinks. But shortstop is a real problem and there is at least a little bit of power upside for Desmond. His primary issue is he appears to have a self-incentived program that rewards striking out. Only way to explain why he does it so much. But Chris Tillman isn't a high K guy and those are the matchups I like to target for Desmond. Not a safe play by any means, but going cheap at shortstop almost always is the call.

Troy Tulowitzki - FD 4300 DK 4700
I have him lower here because you are overpaying somewhat for his services against a righty, even in Coors. But because pitching is coming on the cheaper side today, fitting his salary might not take a ton of finagling. Tulo can hit righties and Shelby Miller isn't anywhere close to as good as his low 2's ERA would suggest.

 

Third base

Once again, hate the position.

David Freese - FD 2600 DK 4000
Because Freese plays everyday and is below average against righty pitching, the price will stay in check. But facing lefties is where he earns his money. Over the last two seasons Freese has a 137 wRC+ and .831 OPS in this platoon. Because third base is a rich man's shortstop, going cheap here isn't the worst idea if it lets you load up bats in other spots. Freese hits just below the middle of the order and we always want to grab guys in these kinds of platoon advantages.

Adrian Beltre - FD 2600 DK 4000
Only here because of the price. He's been slightly above average against righties over the last couple of seasons so it isn't like we only have to play him in a lefty platoon. I'm buying on price and ballpark rather than targeting the matchup with Ian Kennedy. Again, third base is rough and on DraftKings you'll want to take advantage of some guys with multi-position eligibility.

 

Outfield

Mike Trout - FD 5600 DK 5500
He's the top overall projected points guy on the slate today and you have a good chance to get him in lineups with the state of the pitching. Trout is better, over his career, against righties. But we can get him in against the lefty Mike Montgomery. It's not like Trout is a bum in this split with a .938 OPS and .404 wOBA in this platoon over the last two seasons. Look, he's elite. I'm not telling you anything new here. We don't pick him everyday, but today is one you can roll his salary in your lineups.

Justin Upton - FD 2700 DK 4600
Not going to play him on DraftKings, but that FanDuel price is really something. He's dropped to dangerously low levels over there. The reason? He's been an abomination against lefties this season. Usually his bread and butter, Upton's 44 wRC+ in that split this season is about as bad as you'll ever see. Some of it is BABIP, but that doesn't explain it all away. That being said, this is a guy with a career track record of feasting on lefty pitching. I'm taking the FD price because I think you kind of have to with the matchup and the park.

Nelson Cruz - FD 3300 DK 4800
Austin Jackson - FD 2500 DK 3700
Eventually Hector Santiago is going to step off the Luck Bus and come back to reality. His 4.47 xFIP is two runs higher than the ERA and he's been living off a .234 BABIP against. That simply can't last (right?) and I'm willing to keep playing hitters against him, especially guys like Cruz and Jackson (but especially Cruz) who are significantly better hitters against lefty pitching. Cruz has been one of the best over the last couple of seasons with an OPS over 1K.

Joc Pederson - FD 3400 DK 3700
As long as he's batting leadoff for the Dodgers with the power and speed combination then he's in play against any non-elite pitchers at these prices. Entering must-start zone on DrafTKings.

Kelly Johnson - FD 3600 DK 3600
I don't think the power expectation at Coors is enough to consider playing his salary on FanDuel, but on DraftKings he's close to a must start especially with the multi-position eligibility.

Consider

 

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