Baseball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice

Doug Norrie

Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings, Yahoo and Victiv 7/21/15

Big Tuesday in the the land of MLB and we've got you covered. Let's run through some of the highlights for this big evening slate.

If you want the rest? Go ahead and get access to the exclusive projection system that produces these picks. Sign up now and get a free 3 day trial to our lineup construction tool for FanDuel, DraftKings and Draftster.

Note about the Rangers going in: The sites corrected their prices so much for the trip to Coors, that even against Kyle Kendrick you are paying a premium for their services. I'm not saying avoid them. The lefties are in play for sure. But just be wary that they aren't necessarily "deals" based on their projections.


Danny Salazar - FD 8800 DK 9900 Victiv 15100 Yahoo 51
He's basically the king of having you on Cloud Nine and counting your winnings until that big blow up inning comes along and you are thinking about different, and theatrical ways, to leave this mortal coil. If Salazar can avoid those atomic bomb innings that seem to haunt him, then he is a stud's stud. He's striking out more than ten batters per nine, has a 2.93 season xFIP and really has limited the walks. The Brewers are a middle of the road team against righties and strike out more than 20% of the time. For his FanDuel salary especially he strikes me as a bargain on this slate.

Chris Heston - FD 7300 DK 8200 Victiv Yahoo 42
Opponent- SD (Despaigne) R Park- @SD
He's just about an average pitcher which on this slate is about all you can ask for from someone who isn't through the roof in terms of price. His FanDuel price offers a lot of flexibility especially if you are looking to stack some hitters from the bigger run expectation games going down (of which there are quite a few). Heston's peripherals are solid in unspectacular and his xFIP is solidly in the mid 3's. The Padres rank close to the bottom of the league against righties this season and the ballpark doesn't do hitters any power favors.

Consider Matt Shoemaker on the super cheap

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Kyle Schwarber - FD 2500 DK 3200 Victiv 3500 Yahoo 18
Opponent- Cin (Iglesias) R Park- @Cin
His prices are dumb considering the talent and opportunity. The Cubs have Schwarber locked into the two spot in the lineup and he's coming at or near the minimums nearly across the board. Like basically every other Cub, he strikes out a ton. But he mixes power and some patience (at least in the minors) into his batter's profile. You won't find many other catchers with his upside and low price hitting this high in the order. That, almost alone, is worth the price of admission. Now that he's qualifying behind the dish you can easily slot him into lineups in a good hitter's park against even a decent K guy like Iglesias.

Honestly, it's almost all about Schwarber for me today. I don't see a ton of reasons to look elsewhere at catcher considering the kind of prices you are getting on the guy. But if you do want to take a looksie at guys like:
Michael McKenry - FD 2900 DK 2900 Victiv 3700 Yahoo 7
Opponent- Tex (Harrison) L Park- @Col
If he got the start or,

John Jaso - FD 2800 DK 4200 Victiv 4000 Yahoo 15
Opponent- Phi (Nola) R Park- @Phi
If he's still hitting lead off, though the matchup against Nola isn't exactly awesome.

First base

Anthony Rizzo - FD 3800 DK 5000 Victiv 5700 Yahoo 18
Opponent- Cin (Iglesias) R Park- @Cin
Love a lot of things for Rizzo today. The price on FanDuel is right in the cash and tournament sweet spot. He is going in one of the best hitter's parks for lefty power in the bigs in Great American Ballpark and though Iglesias isn't a bum, Rizzo's putting together a fantastic season with a .400 wOBA and walking almost as much as he's striking out. He hammers righty pitching and is one of the best bats over the last two seasons in that platoon. A little pricey on DraftKings, but you aren't paying much for pitching today.

Chris Davis - FD 3400 DK 3800 Victiv 5200 Yahoo 17
Opponent- NYY (Eovaldi) R Park- @NYY
Obviously Crush's biggest issue is the strikeout rate. He swings and misses early and often. It drives his price down and is why we want to scoop him when he's facing a pitcher who doesn't possess elite K stuff. Nathan Eovaldi is one such gentlemen. He's striking out less than seven batters per nine though admittedly doesn't give up the long ball at an inordinate rate. I like Davis for the contact expectation here and his price is down on DraftKings. We all know Yankee Stadium's short porch is made for a guy like Davis and this one has power upside written on it.

Strongly consider David Ortiz


Second base

Robinson Cano - FD 3200 DK 3900 Victiv 5200 Yahoo 16
Opponent- Det (Greene) R Park- @Det
Say what you want about his season (and believe there is a great deal to say about what's been going on with the guy), but he's hit safely in seven of his last ten games with some power in there to boot. Dude isn't a dead man walking by any means and yet the prices are still drifting toward the low end. Especially on DraftKings. His July has been perfectly acceptable with an OPS over .900. Shane Greene's a low K, very average pitcher. Cano seems safe-ish in this matchup considering the strikeout expectation is reduced.

Ben Zobrist - FD 2900 DK 3700 Victiv 4700 Yahoo 16
Opponent- Tor (Buehrle) L Park- @Oak
Over the last couple of seasons, Zobrist has been more than above average against lefty pitching. His .845 OPS and 144 wRC+ rate out fantastic in this platoon and especially for those qualifying at second base. Mark Buehrle is always a guy we like to pick on considering dude strikes out about 4.5 batters per nine, a number you won't see get much lower among starting pitchers. Zobrist walks more than he strikes out in this platoon making his contact rate expectation in this matchup very high.



Troy Tulowitzki - FD 4400 DK 4600 Victiv 5600 Yahoo 18
Opponent- Tex (Harrison) L Park- @Col
The price isn't that high but the upside is. Tulo has everything going for him in this matchup. Best hitter’s park on the planet in Coors? Check. Facing a lefty? Check. That lefty is bad? Check. (That’s how you successfully use the “check” device in a write up. Take notes.) Tulo’s numbers against lefties over the last two seasons have been nothing short of all-time great. He’s rocking a 1.200 OPS with an absurd .504 wOBA. Even adjusting for the park, those numbers are eye-popping. Tulo is the clear, going away, pick at shortstop today. Don't think you need to hem and haw too much about this play.

Sort of like Schwarber above, I'm having trouble coming up for a case to play any other shortstop on this slate. You don't need to break the bank for Tulo and with pitching coming so cheap, getting this salary in isn't any great shakes. But on the off chance Troy gets bit by a rattlesnake or slips in the shower, you can consider guys like
Jhonny Peralta - FD 3300 DK 4400 Victiv 5000 Yahoo 16
Opponent- CWS (Rodon) L Park- @cws
But not really. Or...

Jose Reyes - FD 3500 DK 4300 Victiv 4900 Yahoo 17
Opponent- Oak (Graveman) R Park- @Oak
But not really.


Third base

Nolan Arenado - FD 5000 DK 5000 Victiv 5800 Yahoo 20
Opponent- Tex (Harrison) L Park- @Col
Our system actually doesn't love him here and I'm havinga bit of a problem figuring out why. He hasn't been lights out over the last couple of seasons against lefties (considering the home park boost) with an .895 OPS and 124 wRC+. Those numbers aren't bad of course, they just don't rock your world for a dude sitting at or above $5K on the major sites. That being said, because of the pitching situation you can take chances on a possible overpay with a guy like Arenado against a pitcher like Harrison. He's not a lock like Tulo, but of course you need to put him on the radar.

Kyle Seager - FD 2800 DK 4200 Victiv 5000 Yahoo 16
Opponent- Det (Greene) R Park- @Det
With Seager moving up in the lineup to the two spot, Seager's plate appearance expectation goes up some and so does the value. He's a much better deal on FanDuel than DraftKings where I think you can probably find a better deal. But Seager is a dude who's put up solid numbers against righties over the last couple of seasons. His .818 OPS and .355 wOBA look even more impressive when you remember he plays half his games in a pitcher's park. Facing Shane Greene is a nice spot for Seager.

Consider Pablo Sandoval


Andrew McCutchen - FD 4800 DK 4700 Victiv 5800 Yahoo 20
Starling Marte - FD 3600 DK 4300 Victiv 5200 Yahoo 19
Opponent- KC (Vargas) L Park- @KC
He's one of the best hitters in the majors against lefties and today gets an incredibly weak one in Jason Vargas. Vargas strikes out around 5.5 batters per nine (which sucks) and rocks an xFIP in the mid 4's. McCutchen has put up a .900 OPS over the last couple of seasons in that split and has fantastic career numbers. A little BABIP run bad has stymied his short term lefty split and his walk rate in this split keeps the floor high (as does the speed). Marte's right behind him though reduced in price, especially on FanDuel.  The only thing holding these two guys back today is the ballpark.

Matt Holliday - FD 3100 DK 4000 Victiv 5100 Yahoo 16
Opponent- CWS (Rodon) L Park- @Cws
A lot to like about Holliday today. He's going in a fantastic park in U.S. Cellular Field that plays up righty power just about as good as any park in the majors. Holliday has also shown almost elite production against lefties over the last couple of years. His 171 wRC+ and .418 wOBA are among the best in the league in the lefty platoon split over that period of time. He's getting a solid matchup against Carlos Rodon who has some significant control issues. The price is right in the value zone for Holliday and I don't think many people will be on his bat today.

Yasiel Puig - FD 3300 DK 3100 Victiv 4900 Yahoo 16
Opponent- Atl (Wood) L Park- @Atl
He's being given away on DraftKings tonight and I will probably take the chance on him there. Don't think you need to go for his salary on FanDuel, but man that DK price is getting ridiculous. For some of his struggles he's not some punt play hitter like the price suggests. It seems just a little insane against the lefty Wood. Puig's been above average in that split.

And infinity cheap guys - for those, grab a free three day trial of our projection system. Good luck out there!


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1 Visitor Comment

  1. I love reading your analysis and it has been so helpful when I’m using the projection system and wavering between two people. Inevitably you’ve written about one or both of them and it has been a real help. I feel like I’m starting to get a hang of the projection system and have actually started making a little bit of money although I’m a long way from retiring on my winnings. 🙂 But I wanted you to know how much I like the humor you inject. I have laughed many times while reading and it is fun. Thanks.

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