Baseball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice

Doug Norrie

Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings, Yahoo and Victiv 7/28/15

Full Tuesday slate going here with a bunch of solid pitchers hitting the mound. Should make for an interesting day.

Hat tip to newest contributor Justin Koenig for throwing in the second half of these picks. Pumped to have him aboard.

*Editor's note: At the time of this post, the Rockies' and Yankees' pitchers hadn't been announced. Will update the picks if anyone jumps out after they finalize their starters.

If you want the rest? Go ahead and get access to the exclusive projection system that produces these picks. Sign up now and get a free 3 day trial to our lineup construction tool for FanDuel, DraftKings and Draftster.


Noah Syndergaard - FD 8800 DK 10700 Victiv Yahoo 49
Opponent- SD (Shields) R Park- @Nym
It's an interesting day for pitching. There are some solid, second level pitchers going that have me wanting to fade the top tier like Jose Fernandez and David Price. That's always a dicey proposition because obviously those guys are aces. But they are cost-prohibitive and don't have the best matchups. Which leaves a guy like Syndergaard. His win expectation is a little lower having to face Shields (below) but almost everything else is working in his favor. The Padres are a righty-heavy lineup that ranks second to last in the league against right-handed pitching this season in team wOBA. They also strike out 22% of the time in this platoon. Thor's been a stud this season striking out more than a batter an inning, keeping the walks to a minimum and rocking a low 3's xFIP. Love the ballpark as well with Citi Field depressing power all around. This is a good spot to save some bucks.

James Shields - FD 9300 DK 9100 Victiv Yahoo 50
Opponent- NYM (Syndergaard) r Park- @NYM
Coming out of the opposite dugout is Shields. This is interesting because you can almost play these guys depending on site, going with whoever is cheaper. Noah costs a little less on FD while Shields is cheaper on DK. That's a nice, natural hedge if you play on multiple sites. Sheilds has dialed up the K's this season, but some walks have come with it. The xFIP sits in the low 3's and the Mets, like the Pads, are well below average against righties. This will be a fun pitching matchup to watch.

Jordan Zimmermann - FD 8600 DK 7700 Victiv Yahoo 47
Opponent- Mia (Fernandez) R Park- @Mia
Much like the two guys above, he gets hurt some because the win expectation sinks with Jose Fernandez on the mound for the Marlins. But everything else is also in Zimmermann's favor. The Marlins are brutal on offense and much worse with Giancarlo gone. They rank near the bottom of the league against righty pitching, and that's with Stanton having been there much of the season. Zimmermann isn't a huge K guy but he can make up for it some by going longer into games because he walks no one. More of a safety play than a high upside guy as I don't see him getting knocked around too much.

Consider Jose Fernandez if you are spending up. I like him a lot obviously. It's just the price relative to the field means you can attempt a fade.


By the way - we were reached out to by a new site that deals with all things betting. They have a good take on daily fantasy sports rules, if you're new to the whole thing.


Good god catcher is brutal today. Yeesh.

Evan Gattis - FD 3300 DK 3600 Victiv 4800 Yahoo 15
Opponent- LAA (Wilson) L Park- @Hou
He doesn't qualify for catcher over on DraftKings which is a shame. Gattis isn't in the world's best matchup against C.J. Wilson, though it's worth mentioning that Wilson's xFIP is up around four and he's only striking out about 7.5 batters per nine. Those are pretty mediocre numbers. Houston boosts power to righties and Gattis is above average against lefty pitching over the last two seasons with a 111 wRC+. He's a high ceiling, low floor hitter so keep that in mind. Not the safest of plays of course, but there is power upside.

Matt Wieters - FD 2300 DK 2600 Victiv 4300 Yahoo 12
Opponent- Atl (Teheran) R Park- @Bal
Oof, see what I mean about catcher? It's been a rough go of things for Wieters since coming back from the DL. He's had significant struggles. But there are some things working in his favor today. First off, since he's sucked the price is in the basement. He's a much better hitter against righty pitching in the last couple of years with an .832 OPS and 138 wRC+ in that stretch. Teheran is a good pitcher, but he doesn't strike many batters out. I'm on a price play for Wieters who's got to turn it around. Right?

Consider Yan Gomes


First base

Jose Abreu - FD 3200 DK 4200 Victiv 5400 Yahoo 18
Opponent- Bos (Miley) L Park- @Bos
Another day, another Jose Abreu siting on DFSR. If you found out the Jose Abreu Fan Club was paying us for mentions, would you be surprised? Seems likely at this point but not true. (Hear that JAFC? Get on it.) Regardless, Abreu's tattooed lefty pitching over his first two seasons with an OPS close to 1K (some BABIP help in there). His numbers are down in that split this season, but that's BABIP heavy as well. Dude works on both sides of the luck aisle. I love the matchup for him against Wade Miley in Fenway. His price is completely reasonable and Miley's profile means a reduced K expectation for Abrue. This is a sweet spot in terms of price.

Eric Hosmer - FD 2900 DK 4100 Victiv 5100 Yahoo 15
Opponent- Cle (Bauer) R Park- @Cle
Dude's putting it together this season and is really taking it to righty pitching. His 148 wRC+ and .900 OPS against this platoon is closing in on elite status (even with a little luck thrown in there). He's an on base machine in this split and that's great news against a guy like Trevor Bauer who walks close to four batters per nine. He's more a cash game play because he doesn't have tons of power, but there's a lot of safety in his batter profile.

Consider Carlos Santana


Second base

Kolten Wong - FD 3000 DK 3700 Victiv 4700 Yahoo 16
Opponent- Cin (Leake) R Park- @Stl
I don't love the value at second today which is why I'm inclined to go almost as cheap as possible. Wong is at the edge of that value range even in the matchup against Mike Leake. Leake doesn't strike anyone out, but does induce a ton of groundballs which helps keeps his xFIP on the lower side considering the peripherals. Wong's leadoff status helps him here as he's just about average against righty pitching over the last couple of years. I like his price a lot more on DraftKings where he helps fit in some bigger pitching. It's a little tougher sell on FanDuel, but not out of the question.

Brandon Phillips - FD 2500 DK 3600 Victiv 4300 Yahoo 14
Opponent- Stl (Garcia) L Park- @StL
As long as he's hitting leadoff then he's in the discussion at these prices. He's better against lefties this season and for his career and ran real bad in that split last season. He's been about average this year (though admittedly, not great). His real value add is if he's seeing a higher than usual plate appearance expectation from the leadoff spot. Jaime Garcia is decent when he can actually stay on the mound, but second base is a real tough sell today. Go cheap and get out.

Consider Neil Walker



Troy Tulowitzki - FD 3600 DK 4600 Victiv 5100 Yahoo 17
Opponent- Chc (Beeler) R Park- @ChC
It’s hard to ignore the drop in price here as Tulowitzki has struggled in his past couple of games. Don’t let that trend fool you because he is primed for a slump buster against the mostly unproven Dallas Beeler. Despite his recent struggles, Tulowitzki still has an OPS of .868 and a BABIP of .347 against right-handed pitching this season. Combined with Beeler’s lack of strikeout punch and Tulowitzki’s lowered price, this becomes a great play with huge upside potential. Update: Tulo's been traded to the Jays. If he's in the lineup, I still like the value.

Francisco Lindor - FD 2600 DK 3500 Victiv 3800 Yahoo 13
Opponent- KC (Young) R Park- @Cle
I really like Lindor here both for his low price and the pitcher he is facing. Young possesses one of the worst strikeout rates in the league, meaning there will be plenty of opportunities for Lindor to put the ball in play. While Lindor is not going to set the world on fire with his bat, his steady production coupled with a weak opposing pitcher makes him a relatively safe play. Play Lindor if you want to spend up on a big time pitcher or load up on some bigger bats at other positions.

Third base

Josh Donaldson - FD 4700 DK 5800 Victiv 5800 Yahoo 21
Opponent- Phi (Morgan) L Park- @Tor
This is such a great matchup for Donaldson that I almost feel sorry for Adam Morgan. Of course I don’t because I expect Donaldson to have a big game and help pad my wallet in the process. Donaldson has been absolutely terrorizing southpaw pitching this year, with a wOBA of 0.434 and an OPS of 1.024. Add in the fact that Morgan is a below average pitcher who posses a low K/9 ratio and is prone to the long ball, and I fully expect Donaldson to perform well here. I know the price is high, but I’d make an effort to get him into your lineup.

Matt Carpenter - FD 2700 DK 3800 Victiv 4700 Yahoo 15
Opponent- Cin (Leake) R Park- @Stl
If Donaldson is a little out of your price range, Matt Carpenter is a great punt option given the fact that his price has dropped quite a bit in the recent weeks. It’s hard to find this type of production (0.355 wOBA and nearly 0.800 OPS against righties) for this low of a price, which is what makes this such an intriguing play. Mike Leake does not posses great strikeout stuff and Carpenter is batting well over .300 when he puts the ball in play. I really like Donaldson, but it’s hard to argue with Carpenter here if you want to spend up at other positions.

Update: With Yohan Flande on the mound, Kris Bryant vaults to near the top of the 3B list, especially on FanDuel



Jose Bautista - FD 4400 DK 5600 Victiv 5700 Yahoo 20
Opponent- Phi (Morgan) L Park- @Tor
Like his teammate Donaldson, Bautista absolutely feasts on left handed pitching. His wOBA and OPS are both in Donaldson’s range, which certainly makes him a strong candidate to have a monster game. The only problem with Joey Bats is it’s going to be difficult to fit both him and Donaldson into your lineup. Forced to choose between the two I would go with Bautista because of his higher BABIP, but you can’t really go wrong with either of these guys who give lefties nightmares.

Michael Brantley - FD 3600 DK 4800 Victiv 5400 Yahoo 18
Brandon Moss - FD 2600 DK 3500 Victiv 4700 Yahoo 14
David Murphy - FD 2200 DK 2600 Victiv 3300 Yahoo 12
Opponent- KC (Young) R Park- @Cle
All of these guys posses excellent numbers against right handed pitchers, and as I like to constantly mention, Chris Young is just not a very capable major league pitcher. Brantley is a higher priced option and will be more difficult to fit into your lineup, but Moss and Murphy are very affordable. In particular, I really like Murphy because he has a lot of upside and for the minimum price, provides a lot of flexibility to spend up at other positions. You can’t go wrong with any of these guys as they are all likely to perform well against one of the weakest starting pitchers in the major leagues.

Carlos Gonzalez - FD 3000 DK 4400 Victiv 5000 Yahoo
Opponent- Chc (Beeler) R Park- @ChC
I really like Cargo at this spot, particularly for his matchup and his lowered price. Gonzalez has been effective against righties this year, with a wOBA of 0.355 and an OPS of 0.823. Getting that kind of production for his price, particularly on FanDuel makes him a steal. Dallas Beeler is a new, unproven major league pitcher, and although it is a small sample size, has been getting crushed by lefties to the tune of a 1.134 OPS. And no, that is not a misprint. Gonzalez is probably more suited for the cash games because of his risk level, but there is no denying the high upside he brings to the table.

Angel Pagan - FD 2300 DK 3100 Victiv 4000 Yahoo
Opponent- Mil (Peralta) R Park- @SF
A nice punt option in the outfield comes in the form of Angel Pagan. Lead-off hitters at an almost minimum price tag are rare to come by which makes Pagan a really nice play tonight. His numbers aren’t going to necessarily raise any eyebrows, but he’s a solid hitter matched up with a below average big league pitcher in Peralta who has a 5.83 K/9 ratio and a xFIP around 4. Combined with his bargain bin price and prime lead-off spot, Pagan is a good play if you’re looking to save some cash to spend up elsewhere.

Update: Dexter Fowler is a great play against Yohan Flande

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