Baseball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice

Doug Norrie

Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings, Yahoo and Victiv 8/6/15

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Early Slate
Zack Greinke - FD 12600 DK 13500 Victiv Yahoo 59
Opponent- Phi (Buchanan) R Park- @Phi
On this early slate there are only so many ways to go, so you might as well just pay up for the best arm going. Greinke, while priced like a total ace, doesn't quite have the peripherals to match. The strikeout rate just isn't there, but I'm not sweating it too much in these early games. He's facing a garbage-y Phillies squad that ranks second to last in the league against righty arms this season. Greinke's ERA is in the lower 1's though you should know the xFIP is more like the lower 3's. He's had a healthy amount of luck this season, namely a .231 BABIP against. But he's a monster favorite for the win today and his control keeps him later in games, luck or not. Look, the prices are totally out of bounds, especially on DraftKings where he has to basically be perfect. But it's tough to think about fading him here with the other arms and matchups.

Late Slate
Pitching on this evening slate is about as bad as you'll ever see for a set of games. Think long and hard about how much money you want to invest playing this slate.

Chris Heston - FD 7900 DK 9800 Victiv Yahoo 46
Opponent- Chc (Hammel) R Park- @ChC
Yikes. This one doesn't feel good, but really none of this slate gives you the warm and fuzzy feeling so hang with me here. Heston faces a Cubs team ranked in the bottom third of the league against righties and they strike out a whopping 24% of the time in this split. That, almost alone, is worth considering Heston here. He's been a decent enough major league pitcher (no-hitter aside) with a 7 per nine K rate and a mid 3's xFIP. Those numbers won't blow you away, but neither will the price. He's coming cheap and you'll be loading up on hitters all over this slate. That's what happens when the arms are coming for nothing.

Consider C.C. Sabathia but only as a relative venture


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Early Slate
Victor Martinez - FD 2600 DK 3100 Victiv 5100 Yahoo 14
Opponent- KC (Ventura) R Park- @Det
I'm putting him first here even though I know he doesn't qualify at catcher on most sites. Why it's important on FanDuel today is because you'll be in a moderate bind with how many Dodgers you can play over there. I like Yasmani Grandal a great deal, but you can only play four Dodgers and Greinke eats up one of those slots. There's a solid chance V-Mart is playing through an early season injury which would explain some of his struggles. But he's still in the middle of the lineup and that is almost good enough considering the rest of the catcher field.

Consider Yasmani Grandal of course everywhere else.

Late Slate
Stephen Vogt - FD 2300 DK 3700 Victiv 4000 Yahoo 12
Opponent- Hou (Feldman) R Park- @Oak
Coming very cheap of late thanks to some power issues over the short term. He's basically a punt play at this point, but that's fine by us. He's been mired in a major slump and typically that's when we will start buying guys because the price has bottomed out. Scott Feldman only K's about five batters per nine and Vogt's an above average hitter in this split with a mid .800's OPS over the last couple of seasons. Buy him on the cheap and reap the benefits when the slump turns.

Play Kyle Schwarber if you aren't playing Heston


First base

Early Slate
Adrian Gonzalez - FD 3300 DK 4700 Victiv 5400 Yahoo
Opponent- Phi (Buchanan) R Park- @Phi
You are going to get sick of reading about Dodgers on this slate for sure. There's no way around it though. They are facing the worst pitcher on the slate and are all coming at lower prices on many sites. Gonzo's a little too steep on DraftKings if you are playing Greinke so you can possibly avoid him there. But on FanDuel he's still very much a bargain. Going to make some tough LAD stack decisions over there today. But know that Gonzalez has a .900+ OPS against righties over the last couple of seasons and Buchanan is a pitcher striking out less than five batters per nine while walking close to four this season. Those numbers are dreadful.

Yonder Alonso - FD 2500 DK 3400 Victiv 4000 Yahoo 13
Opponent- Mil (Garza) R Park- @Mil
He's a direction to go if you run out of room for Dodgers. Gets a power bump from playing in Miller Park and is coming real cheap helping to fit Greinke into lineups.


Late Slate
Ike Davis - FD 2200 DK 2800 Victiv 3600 Yahoo 7
Opponent- Hou (Feldman) R Park- @Oak
First base is probably one of the few positions you don't need to spend too much on for this late slate. Because pitching is coming so cheap, most of the rest of these picks are going full on raw points value rather than any real finesse. That happens sometimes and we like to give you picks that will help play out in lineups. Ike should get the start against the righty Feldman today. He's an above average hitter in this split with a 118 wRC+ over the last couple of seasons. Won't kill you with the K's and dude takes walks at a 14% clip in this platoon. That's cash game worthy and you can save the rest of the money for plays further on down the lineup.

Consider Anthony Rizzo if no Heston


Second base

Early Slate
Kolten Wong - FD 3000 DK 4200 Victiv 4900 Yahoo 15
Opponent- Cin (Lorenzen) R Park- @Cin
Falling out of the leadoff slot does a little to hurt his plate appearance expectation (which really matters in DFS) but he makes up for a bit of it with extra RBI chances out of the third whole. Wong is affordable on FanDuel and a little pricey on DraftKings where I like Howie Kendrick a bit more for the prices. He's having a fine enough season with hints of power and speed helping to keep the floor high. Has the other piss poor pitching matchup in Michael Lorenzen who I'll get to in a bit when we get to third base. But Wong's a solid play who won't cost you too much in the quest to pay up for pitching.

Consider the aforementioned Howie Kendrick


Late Slate
Brian Dozier - FD 3500 DK 4800 Victiv 5600 Yahoo 20
Opponent- Tor (Buehrle) L Park- @Tor
Will be in about all of my lineups on this slate unless he's mysteriously scratched from the lineup. Don't know why you'd go another direction. He's solid as can be against lefties over the last couple of seasons with a mid .800's OPS. Hitting leadoff for the Twins as they face the opposite of intimidating Mark Buehrle. Marky B strikes out only four batters per nine and allows oodles of contact. Makes some of the Twins in play today especially with the Rogers Centre boosting power all around the park. Dozier is a staple for me on the late slate.



Early Slate
Jimmy Rollins - FD 2500 DK 3700 Victiv 4600 Yahoo 16
Opponent- Phi (Buchanan) R Park- @Phi
Shortstop plays on this slate are going to look very similar to yesterday's shortstop plays mostly because they are exactly the same. What can I do? This is a short slate and I have a feeling you see some identical lineups up and down different leagues. There are only so many ways to go. This is contingent on Rollins sticking in the leadoff slot which I think happens. He's incredibly *meh against righty pitching over the last couple of years, but David Buchanan equals out that *meh with a big belly groan of inferior pitching stats. Rollins gets so much value out of that leadoff slot and the extra plate appearance expectation.

Consider Jhonny Peralta


Late Slate
Troy Tulowitzki - FD 4500 DK 5000 Victiv 5600 Yahoo 17
Opponent- Min (Gibson) R Park- @Tor
Because there are some value plays in other parts of the lineup and pitching comes so cheap, let's just run out the most expensive shortstop and call it a day. Tulo is much better against lefty pitching but doesn't exactly take the righty games off. He's still had an OPS close to .900 and a .378 wOBA over the last couple of seasons. Of course that's within the friendly confines of Coors, but the Rogers Centre isn't too far behind in terms of power upside. Tulo's hitting at the top of the order and you can pay up against Kyle Gibson.

Consider Marcus Semien

Third base

Early Slate
Matt Carpenter - FD 3200 DK 4800 Victiv 5200 Yahoo 17
Opponent- Cin (Lorenzen) R Park- @Cin
He's a must for me on FanDuel where he's still coming (for no reason) in the lower middle tier. Carpenter went through a moderate slump a during July but he's come out of it in a monster way over the last week. Blasting four home runs in that span. He's been near the top of our value system plays at third in the short term because we love betting on guys to come out of slumps when the price has dropped. This is a good example. Carpenter faces Michael Lorenzen and his 5 xFIP, terrible walk rate and just general lousiness.

Late Slate
Miguel Sano - FD 2700 DK 4300 Victiv 4100 Yahoo 17
Opponent- Tor (Buehrle) L Park- @Tor
Trevor Plouffe - FD 3100 DK 4200 Victiv 4700 Yahoo 17
Opponent- Tor (Buehrle) L Park- @Tor
Either one of these guys works for me today. Sano has more of the power upside though he's yet to hit a home run against a lefty arm this season. The sample size is too small to make any great proclamations about his future performance based on the low number of plate appearances. I'm willing to green light him even with the insanely high K rate because Buehrle doesn't strike anyone out. Plouff on the other hand is the safer of the two as he's an above average hitter in this split. They are similarly priced though not totally interchangeable. Love the ballpark here especially as these guys are priced like they are still playing in Minnesota.



Early Slate
Yasiel Puig - FD 2800 DK 4000 Victiv 5100 Yahoo 15
Opponent- Phi (Buchanan) R Park- @Phi
Andre Ethier - FD 2700 DK 3500 Victiv 4100 Yahoo 14
Opponent- Phi (Buchanan) R Park- @Phi
Liked both of these guys as value plays for the late slate yesterday and they obliged, Puig especially with a couple of hits including an early three-run home run. Let's go back to the well today without even thinking twice. They are both coming on the cheaper side (something I've said before you'll need with Greinke) and bith have power upside in this matchup. We've been over how bad David Buchanan is so I don't need to keep going back to that well. Just know that both Puig and Ethier are well above average against righty pitching with Puig having put up excellent numbers over the last couple of seasons. You'll run into a problem on FanDuel where you can only start four of them including Greinke. So pick and choose, but I think both of these guys are in FD lineups for me.

Brandon Moss - FD 2200 DK 3600 Victiv 4400 Yahoo 11
Opponent- Cin (Lorenzen) R Park- @Cin
Here's to hoping he's hitting in the top six of the order against Michael Lorenzen. Moss is a three true outcomes guy against righty pitching with most of those outcomes being the K. Lorenzen is similar from a pitching standpoint. He K's some guys, but also walks a ton and lets up home runs. Moss has huge power upside and is a punt play today. Because you will undoubtedly spend up on Greinke, you'll need plays like this to take away some of the salary burden.


Late Slate
Jose Bautista - FD 4700 DK 5200 Victiv 5700 Yahoo 19
Opponent- Min (Gibson) R Park- @Tor
Much in the Tulo vein, let's just go ahead and pay up for the biggest bat in the outfield because he f@#$ing can, that's why. Like his now-teammate, Joey Bats does more of his damage against those poor southpaws, but the .888 OPS and .385 wOBA over the last couple of seasons mean he's putting a hurting on against the righties as well. I'm not nickle and diming here because there's a lot of money going into the lineups. Just take the two highest raw points guys without hesitation.

Carlos Gomez - FD 3600 DK 4400 Victiv 5200 Yahoo
Opponent- Oak (Brooks) R Park- @Oak
He's in that mid range of salary where you might need to fill in today. Gomez has been hitting second in the order since coming to the Astros and he's an even platoon split kind of guy. I like that in some of my righty hitter and he's facing new starter Aaron Brooks. Brooks isn't much to look at from the minors though he hasn't been getting shelled either. Not on a ton of other Houston players which could prove fatal, but Gomez is in the mix.

Consider Josh Reddick and Torii Hunter on the cheaper side

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2 Visitor Comments

  1. Why don’t you mention Matt Wisler, or what are your thoughts on him? I think he has a pretty good chance to have a decent game today and pick up the win.

    • He is also 3-0 at home with a 1.03 WHIP and a 2.33 ERA!

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