fbpx

    Nascar picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice

    08/07/2015
    Chris Durell

    Daily Fantasy Nascar Picks
    Cheez-It 355 at Watkins Glen


    DFSR is proud to bring you our newest contributor Chris Durell. He'll be bringing weekly Nascar picks, analysis and breakdowns to help you cash on DraftKings. If you are new to DraftKings Nascar DFS be sure to click on the banner below.

    Want to see how these picks and more fit into lineups for the Cheez-It 355 at Watkins Glen? Chris is selling a cheatsheet and lineups for DraftKings & FantasyFeud for $5. Just scroll to the bottom of the picks. This is a separate service than our traditional monthly membership.

     

    Cheez-It 355 at Watkins Glen

    Watkins Glen International - Watkins Glen, NY
    Track Type/Length - 2.428 Mile Road Course

    The Windows 10 400 at Pocono Raceway ended with fuel mileage ultimately deciding the winner. It looked likely that Joey Logano would take the checkered flag late into the race before running out of fuel with three laps remaining. Kyle Busch, who was fast all day, trailed in second and probably knew he was in trouble as he was on the same pit strategy as Logano. He didn't let up much at all to try and save fuel, but instead pushed it for the win. Sure enough he ran out of fuel on the final lap and watched teammate Matt Kenseth pass him and grab the win. Kyle still finished in 21st and gained a few points in the standings and remains just 13 points back of 30th going into Watkins Glen this weekend. It was another win for the Joe Gibbs Racing team who has won 5 of the last 6 races and will look for another this weekend.

    The winner of the $5K Happy Hour on DraftKings this past week had a lineup constructed of Biffle, Allmendinger, Bowyer, Earnhardt Jr, Gordon, and Johnson. A pretty balanced lineup with all the drivers finishing inside the top 10 with place differential being the biggest bonus for most. There were not near as many overlapping lineups this week which should be a positive moving forward. Now onto this week.

    The drivers suit up for another road course test this week at Watkins Glen International for the Cheez-It 355. With only five races remaining before the Chase for the Sprint Cup playoffs begin there will be some crew chiefs holding their breath this Sunday at Watkins Glen. NASCAR has implemented a rain package for the cars this weekend in the case that there is rain. The package includes windshield wipers, de-foggers, rear flashing lights and of course rain tires. It could definitely be a wildcard winner this weekend should there be rain but if not look for a group of drivers near the top who have road course experience and success in the past. There will be two practices on Friday afternoon, followed by Coors Lite pole qualifying on Saturday. As always, I will do a post practice/qualifying update with my final thoughts going into the race.

    Upper Tier Targets

    Kyle Busch
    DraftKings - $10,500
    Fantasy Feud - $250,000
    Vegas Odds - 7.5/1
    Sprint Cup Standings – 32nd
    Qualified - 8th
    He was very close to getting his 4th straight win at Pocono before running out of fuel. Many criticized his aggressiveness knowing fuel mileage would be a factor, but I will continue to pick a guy in fantasy who gives 100% and goes for the win every race. He will be doing so again this weekend at Watkins Glen where he has enjoyed success in the past. He has a win, two top 5's, and four top 10 finishes in his previous five races her with a 11.8 average finish. He can get inside the top 30 this weekend with a top finish so look for Kyle to have the blinders on focusing solely on the checkered flag.

    AJ Allmendinger
    DraftKings - $10,200
    Fantasy Feud - $255,000
    Vegas Odds - 6.5/1
    Sprint Cup Standings – 23rd
    Qualified - 1st
    The #47 team has been focused on this race since leaving Sonoma without a win. With Montoya & Ambrose moving on to other things, AJ Allmendinger is the best road racer in NASCAR. This will be another great shot for him to punch his ticket to the Chase playoffs with a win. He won the race here last year and has two top 5's and a four top 10 finishes here in his previous five races with a 5.8 average finish.

    Brad Keselowski
    DraftKings - $9,900
    Fantasy Feud - $225,000
    Vegas Odds - 10/1
    Sprint Cup Standings – 6th
    Qualified - 11th
    Coming under $10K this week, the #2 presents some value if you are looking to go balanced in your lineups. He is on a roll at the moment with four straight top 10 finishes and has a pretty nice track record here recently. He has recorded three top 5 finishes here in his previous five races. Brad is an aggressive driver and that style definitely helps here with multiple tricky corners and passing areas.

    Middle Tier Targets

    Jimmie Johnson
    DraftKings - $8,900
    Fantasy Feud - $185,000
    Vegas Odds - 11/1
    Sprint Cup Standings – 4th
    Qualified - 9th
    When you can get the best driver in the sport under $9K, as the 8th most expensive driver in the field on DraftKings, you better damn well roster him. Yes, I know this is one of the four tracks Jimmie has no win in his career but this could lead to some being off him this week. He has a top 5 and three top 10 finishes in his previous five races here so it's not like he is awful here by any means.

    Martin Truex Jr.
    DraftKings - $8,800
    Fantasy Feud - $175,000
    Vegas Odds - 17/1
    Sprint Cup Standings – 5th
    Qualified - 2nd
    Another driver who, in my eyes, is under priced this week. In his previous five races here he has two top 5's & three top 10 finishes with a 9.0 average finish. Truex started the season out very hot and got a win to lock him in the Chase playoffs and and then went into a so called slump where he has only scored one top 10 in his previous six races. Look for him to grab another this weekend at Watkins Glen.

    Matt Kenseth
    DraftKings - $8,100
    Fantasy Feud - $155,000
    Vegas Odds - 29/1
    Sprint Cup Standings – 7th
    Qualified - 26th
    He has been hot as of late like all the Joe Gibbs drivers have. Kenseth has scored four straight finishes inside the top 7 with a win that came last week at Pocono. Yes, it was a fuel mileage race but he had to be there to take advantage in the first place. In his previous five races here at Watkins Glen he has just two top 10 finishes but has a 13.4 average finish.

    Low End Target

    Kyle Larson
    DraftKings - $7,500
    Fantasy Feud - $145,000
    Vegas Odds - 34/1
    Sprint Cup Standings – 19th
    Qualified - 6th
    My favorite play of the week is Kyle Larson. His price drops all the way down to $7,500 on DraftKings which is 19th ranked and presents huge upside for your lineups. He was in a bit of slump for there for a bit with three straight races outside the top 30 but seems to be coming out of it the past two weeks with finishes of 9th and 12th. He has raced here in the Sprint Cup Series once and finished 4th. He will probably be highly owned so he probably makes a better cash game play than GPP play this week.

    Austin Dillon
    DraftKings - $6,600
    Fantasy Feud - $100,000
    Vegas Odds - 101/1
    Sprint Cup Standings - 20th
    Qualified - 10th

    Coming in under $7K this week, Dillon will be a nice addition to a GPP lineup. He has one Watkins Glen race under his belt and finished in 16th after starting 31st. He moved through the field like a veteran of the track and will look to build on that first race this week. He has been flip flopping the last few weeks with finishes of 13th,25th,8th,25th,7th with a 15.6 average finish over those five races.

    ***Post Practice & Qualifying Update***
    Qualifying Top 10
    1. #47 AJ Allmendinger
    2. #78 Martin Truex Jr.
    3. #14 Tony Stewart
    4. #4 Kevin Harvick
    5. #24 Jeff Gordon
    6. #42 Kyle Larson
    7. #88 Dale Earnhardt Jr.
    8. #18 Kyle Busch
    9. #48 Jimmie Johnson
    10. #3 Austin Dillon

    Average of Practice #1 & Practice #2 - Top 10 Drivers
    1. #9 Sam Hornish Jr.
    2. #18 Kyle Busch
    3. #24 Jeff Gordon
    4. #22 Joey Logano
    5. #41 Kurt Busch
    6. #3 Austin Dillon
    7. #48 Jimmie Johnson
    8. #2 Brad Keselowski
    9. #14 Tony Stewart
    10. #Martin Truex Jr.

    Final Thoughts Going into the Race
    The favorite to win the race only becomes more of a favorite after capturing the Coors Lite Pole on Saturday afternoon. Allmendinger will look stick up front for most of race and get that win that will put him in the Chase. It is a very strong field starting inside the top 10 this week so be sure to grab some value to fill out your lineups.

    I mentioned to keep an eye on TJ Bell as Vegas had him oddly pegged at 101/1. He didn't make the race so he has been erased from the cheatsheet. Some nice value plays to consider this week are:

    Sam Hornish Jr.(DK - $7,800 FF - $130,000)
    He qualified 24th but was 4th in Practice 1 and 8th in Practice 2. He should be able to work his way into a top 15 position with the speeds he has been showing.

    Greg Biffle (DK - $7,400 FF - $115,000)
    He qualified 25th and was 22nd in Practice 1 and 3rd in Practice 2. He seemed to have found some speed in the final practice and should be able to work his way forward as well.

    Casey Mears (DK - $6,700 FF - $90,000)
    He was 5th in Practice 1 and 21st in Practice 2. He qualified 29th and should be working with a top 20 car tomorrow.

    Want to see how these picks and more fit into lineups for the Cheez-It 355 at Watkins Glen? Chris is selling a cheatsheet and lineups for DraftKings and FantasyFeud for $5. This is a separate service than our traditional monthly membership. Head over to our PayPal payment page, if that's more your bag.

    Checkout Options

    Purchase NASCAR Lineups and Cheatsheet for the Cheez-It 355 at Watkins Glen




    Contact Info

    Billing Method







    Tax Location

    Checkout Now


    Chris Durell has been playing Daily Fantasy Sports for three years and fantasy in general for more than a decade. He is active player in college football, NFL, NBA, PGA, and of course NASCAR. He lives in Saskatchewan, Canada with his wife and two daughters. You can follow him on Twitter at @jager_bombs9 for advice, strategy, answers to any NASCAR questions or how he copes with the winters up north.

     

    image sources

    • 2048px-NASCAR_practice: By U.S. Air Force photo by Larry McTighe [Public domain], via Wikimedia Commons

    Post a Reply

    FREE EBOOK

    SECRETS TO CRUSHING DAILY FANTASY FOOTBALL!
    DON'T SET ANOTHER LINEUP BEFORE YOU READ THIS BOOK.

    DOWNLOAD YOUR EBOOK NOW

    Our free NBA and MLB eBooks, and picks to your inbox every day!

    Your eBooks are on their way!