MMA Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice

    Rich Mark

    Daily Fantasy MMA Picks for UFC 191

    This week we've got Rich from Win Daily Fantasy here to give you some MMA picks for Sunday's events.

    UFC 191 will not be one of the biggest cards for the MMA, but it still looks to be an exciting one. There are a couple big fights set for Sunday, August 23rd, and lots of little ones that could go either way. It’s those smaller matches where you will find the most value for your daily fantasy sports leagues as there is less mainstream info out there to help the public form their opinions.

    Let’s start by looking at the two biggest fights scheduled for the night, pick a winner, and then highlight a couple where there’s some big opportunity to upset the competition in your fantasy leagues.

    Max Holloway v. Charles Oliveira

    Holloway is the favorite here. He’s priced at $10,600 at DraftKings, while Oliveira is at $8,800. There’s a 17.5 fantasy point differential between the two, but Oliveira has had some pretty convincing victories recently. A lot of Holloway’s value comes from the fact that he had a first round victory 3 fights ago, and this has boosted his fantasy point status a lot. This is a fight that could go either way, and although Holloway is the favorite, it’s a little too close to tell at the big price difference here. One key strategy could be to take Oliveira for cheap and then hope, but that’s up to you. It seems to have positive expected value, but there is a risk involved if it backfires.

    Erick Silva v. Neil Magny

    Silva is the favorite at $10,400. Magny is priced at $9,000, which indicates that the experts aren’t quite as sure about the outcome of this match as they are the main event. That creates opportunity for fantasy players as Silva is a strong fighter, valued at cheaper because of the closer talent of Magny. His average fantasy point value seems low compared to his last 4 fights, too, where he has won them all in the first round except for one. He is a good value and a solid choice for your roster. Magny is a good fighter, but doesn’t have the same takedown speed as Silva, giving him a disadvantage.

    Now, let’s look at some of the undercard fights where you can clean up by outsmarting the competition.

    Marcos Rogerio de Lima v. Nikita Krylov

    Lima is the top fantasy point scorer in this match, has won both of his most recent fights in the first round, and is valued at under $10,000 ($9,900). Krylov had a first round loss a few fights ago, and seems like a poor fit for this fight. Lima should be your pick here, especially as he will get you slightly under that $10,000 number which gives you a tiny bit of wiggle room in other places on your roster.

    Misha Cirkunov v. Daniel Jolly

    Jolly is a late entry for this fight, and the fight itself seems like it’s wide open. In a match with so many variables, taking a risk on the underdog isn’t a big risk at all. Both fighters are likely to not have their skills perfected, meaning the match can go longer and leave open opportunities for scoring more points. In this light, going with Jolly for $8,300 is the best choice. His small salary leaves you money for areas where you have more knowledge and going with a big name has a higher benefit.

    Sam Stout v. Frankie Perez

    These fighters are ranked almost evenly. At DraftKings, they both have the same price: $9,700. This is under the $10,000 mark, which is helpful for the rest of your roster, as mentioned above. However, in points, Stout has a better history. Perez may very well be a good fighter, but in this instance, Stout is the safer choice as he’s proven himself. When two fighters have the same price like this, higher potential and more consistency almost always is the better choice as it holds a higher proven value. It’s a low card fight, but there’s a chance that Stout could be a top point scorer if he does what he’s capable of against Perez. Stout has a few wins under his belt recently while Perez does not.

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