Baseball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice

Doug Norrie

Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings, StarsDraft and DraftPot 9/10/15

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Oof, and I thought pitching was a rough shout yesterday. Today it's all over the place. The quality arms seem ridiculously overpriced and the midrange guys make me want to puke.

Felix Hernandez - FD 11000 DK 11100 Victiv
Opponent- Tex (Holland) L Park- @Sea
I want to preface this by saying the pitching today almost makes the slate a stayaway for me. The pricing is very tough and the expectation just might not be there to consider anyone truly safe. It's a lot like how I felt yesterday. Hernandez has strung together a couple of quality starts in a row and his season peripherals, while not King Felix-like, are still fine enough. He's expensive for his K rate at this point, as he's putting down less than a batter an inning. And the Rangers are a competitive offensive team against righties. But the park helps Felix and he's just a smidge cheaper than Arrieta here. I'll take the slight savings and find value in some bats further down.

Danny Salazar - FD 9400 DK 10600 Victiv
Opponent- Det (Simon) R Park- @Cle
The good first: Salazar has struck out more than 10 batters per nine this season and his 3.21 xFIP looks awfully good coming at these prices. He's actually limited the walks (for him) to about two and a half per nine. Those numbers, in the aggregate are pretty tight. Now the bad: dude either has it or very much does not have it. And there isn't often an in between. He's susceptible to big, soul-shattering innings and is facing a very tough Tigers' team who ranks in the top ten against righties this season. Salazar has extreme K-upside and has been able to keep it together over the last month or so. Might be the best per dollar deal on the day.

Consider Luis Severino coming cheap on FanDuel, but don't be fooled by the low 2's ERA. His xFIP is in the high 3's.


Yan Gomes - FD 2300 DK 3200 Victiv 5000
Opponent- Det (Simon) R Park- @Cle
More about the lack of real catching prospects on this slate than any real confidence in him doing something on the positive end of things. Gomes is player who puts on the catching gear nearly everyday and sits behind the plate. Every once in a while he collects a hit when the mood strikes. He's run bad in BABIP which explains some of the struggles, but not all. I'm looking for him to be a warm body that fills out catcher on the cheap.

Russell Martin - FD 2500 DK 3700 Victiv 4700
Opponent- NYY (Severino) R Park- @NYY
I'm not a huge believer in Luis Severino being a total ace right now even with the low 2's ERA. He walks a lot of guys and has an xFIP more in the high 3's. While I don't love pitting batters against him, Martin is decent against righty pitching, is coming cheap and gets to go in a hitter's park. Coming cheap enough that he won't crush you.

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[table id=187 /]


First base

Freddie Freeman - FD 3600 DK 4400 Victiv 5200
Opponent- NYM (Colon) R Park- @Atl
Steady Freddie strides to the plate against Bartolo Colon, a laughing stock who has actually not been nearly as bad as many expected, nor as bad as many still believe. Still, Colon is a pitch to contact guy (which mitigates Freeman's whiffing weakness) who allows a lot of fly-balls. In other words, the perfect type of guy for Freeman to ply his righty-crushing trade against. Freeman's got a .900+ OPS against right handed pitching this season, and on a day where there isn't a lot to choose from in general, he makes a fine play in any format.

Pedro Alvarez - FD 2200 DK 3400 Victiv 4600
Opponent- Mil (Peralta) R Park- @Pit
But, if you want to shoot for the moon, you might just have to consider Pedro Alvarez. Pedro's a 70 power guy who hasn't turned into a star at the big league level because he has simply never figured out how to hit left handed pitching. Well, today he'll face a a terrible right hander, which is sort of his sweet spot. Wily Peralta would have the 5th lowest K rate and the 15th worst xFIP in the majors, except he can't stay on the mound enough to even qualify in terms of innings. Alvarez, like Freeman, is primarily snakebit by his swing and miss problems. Well, Peralta doesn't make people do that. He rarely even suggests it. I'll grab Alvarez and his 19 homers against right handed pitching in big tournaments where I'm feeling lucky.


Second base

Jason Kipnis - FD 3000 DK 4400 Victiv 5100
Opponent- Det (Simon) R Park- @Cle
Second base options are going to look identical as yesterday. That can happen in baseball sometimes (more than sometimes) when many of the factors stay the same on a day-to-day basis. Kipnis, when not on the DL, has been having a fantastic year at the plate with an OPS in the mid .800's thanks to an OBP close to .400. Alfredo Simon offers the perfect matchup. He strikes out less than six batters per nine while walking close to four. Those numbers are garbage with the 4.86 xFIP offering further proof. I suspect Kipnis is one of the bigger cash game starts on FanDuel because of the price. And honestly, I don't mind the DraftKings price either.

Neil Walker - FD 2300 DK 3700 Victiv 4800
Opponent- Mil (Peralta) R Park- @Pit
Here's what I wrote about Walker yesterday, and really everything holds serve in the analysis:
Hard to get away from these prices as long as he's hitting in the top six of the order. Walker gets shifted all around the Pirates' order so you never know where he'll end up, but this is a guy with a better than .800 OPS over the last couple of seasons against righty pitching. Today's he's facing walk machine Keyvius Sampson lousy Wily Peralta...
who stinks. I love the diminished strikeout expectation with the pitching matchup and think Walker is a fantastic play at the prices. Especially if you need to overspend a little on pitching to get the job done.



Jhonny Peralta - FD 2200 DK 3800 Victiv
Opponent- Cin (Lamb) L Park- @Cin
Welcome to the seemingly daily recommendation of one Mr. Jhonny Peralta. But these kind of day-to-day writeups happen when you've got a situation like Peralta's. He suffered through a brutal August that saw his ISO around the .061 range thanks to a dramatic decrease in Hr/FB ration. I want to drum some of that up to bad luck because a lot of his batted profile looked in line with his season averages. There could be something else going on behind the scenes, but as long as he's hitting in the middle of the order then this is a play for me. Facing a lefty in a great hitter's park and Peralta is still coming at punt prices.

Third base

Todd Frazier - FD 2200 DK 4100 Victiv 5000
Opponent- Stl (Garcia) L Park- @Cin
Put him as a must play on FanDuel last night and he rewarded with a dong in the second. Granted we've had to stick with Frazier for a while as the price's dropped a fair amount in the second half of the season. But he's run super bad in that time and the price was artificially dropping. He's still at the minimum on FanDuel and while Jaime Garcia is a fair bit better than J.A. Happ, he's not as good as the sub 2 ERA would suggest. I'm willing to play Frazier simply at the price point as a middle of the order hitter coming at the minimums in his better split.

Kris Bryant - FD 4000 DK 4900 Victiv
Opponent- Phi (Morgan) L Park- @Phi
Much more expensive than Frazier, but in a better matchup against Adam Morgan who's sporting an xFIP in the mid 5's while striking out only five batters per nine. Morgan could be in real trouble today against the Cubs who bring major power to the plate. Bryant's been better in his rookie season against righties, but he's been well above average in both platoons this season. He strikes out a ton, but that expectation is diminished in this pitching matchup. You'll have to pay up, but I love the upside.



Dexter Fowler - FD 3300 DK 4400 Victiv
Opponent- Phi (Morgan) L Park- @Phi
It's hard to imagine a worse slate pick an outfielder in, so here we are. Actually, this Fowler pick would play on most nights. Adam Morgan is one of the very worst pitchers to take the mound this season - a guy who could top a 5 K/9 in the minors before the Phillies fed him to the MLB flames earlier this year. Fowler is a balanced power/speed guy (17 homers, 17 SB) who leads off for a pretty potent offense. He should get tons of opportunity, and could do a lot with it. This is a must-play in any format.

Gregory Polanco - FD 3100 DK 3700 Victiv 4800
Opponent- Mil (Peralta) R Park- @Pit
Polanco is an unsexy play on most nights, but I'll give him a nice hard look in both cash games and GPPs tonight. He should be batting 2nd in a game where the Pirates will be favored to put up some decent numbers, and Wily Peralta's deliberate approach should give Polanco to use his only plus skill - his speed. And really, Polanco hasn't been horrible against righties this season - his .742 OPS is serviceable, especially since it's very OBP driven. He's never going to be an upside guy in the way a huge power or huge speed guy would be, but the match-up might be good enough here and the field small enough that you can risk it.

Ben Revere - FD 2800 DK 4000 Victiv 4900
Opponent- NYY (Severino) R Park- @NYY
Revere is an almost uncanny Gregor Polanco clone, except without a little bit of the power, and with a little more speed. Like, he's got a .743 OPS against righties to Polanco's .742. It's giving me the creeps. So why don't we like him more, since he's priced more affordably? Luis Severino. The guy can actually pitch, and that could limit some of Revere's counting stat upside. Still, I'll be a buyer on a day without a lot of options.

Also considered: Our system is bullish on JD Martinez again. We left him off the picks when it liked him against Salazar last time, and he homered. Your mileage may vary.

Early slate: Mark Trumbo against the left handed Holland.

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1 Visitor Comment

  1. Bartolo Colon is not a laughing Stock. 18 years career in MLB, winning over 200 games, a Cy Young award. Doing all that while overweight is amazing 2 me.

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