Baseball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice

Doug Norrie

Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings, StarsDraft and DraftPot 9/9/15

Let's get right to Wednesday's picks for an almost full slate (thanks for playing early Cubs and Cards). The pitching is going to let you spend up for some bats here which could mean for some interesting scores at the end of the day.

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James Shields - FD 8500 DK 9400 Victiv
Opponent- Col (Rusin) L Park- @Sd
My man is anything but safe, that's for sure. He's been crushed all seasons by the long ball, a trend that doesn't look like simply a blip on the radar. His Hr/FB ratio is an absurd 17.7%. He's also walking far too many batters. Those two things are a lethal combination (the kind of lethal where he's getting killed) and they've sunk his season as compared to the contract. So why am I putting him this high up in the picks? Well, he's facing a Rockies team that ranks third to last in the league on the road this season. When they get away from Coors, it gets awfully pedestrian for this squad. And Shields does have strikeout stuff. If he can avoid the dong at home in San Diego then I think his salary makes it worth the risk. And some of the other pitching prospects on this slate have their own issues.

Julio Teheran - FD 8000 DK 8500 Victiv
Opponent- Phi (Buchanan) R Park- @Phi
I get that the Phillies have had fits and starts of offensive production lately, but they still aren't necessarily a dynamic offense in the aggregate. Teheran is in the middle tier of pricing which is where I think you almost need to go on this slate. Paying up for Strasburg or deGrom feels like it can go horribly for each and I'm not positive their downsides outweigh the price tags especially in facing each other. Teheran's struggled some this season, though if he can limit the walks he's able to go deep enough into games to pay these price tags. Again, this is more about the state of today's pitching than it is about any real confidence in Teheran. But I think the floor is high enough to play in cash games.


Buster Posey - FD 3600 DK 4700 Victiv 5400
Opponent- Ari (Godley) R Park- @Ari
Because under almost no circumstance are you going to be paying through the roof on pitching today, I think you'll be able to easily get in some mid-to-upper tier bats. Posey is a perfect example. His, at least on FanDuel, is perfectly acceptable while going in a great hitter's park. While maybe known a little more for handling lefties, the results over the last couple of seasons against righties have been fantastic with a mid .800's OPS and 143 wRC+. Zach Godley is a walk machine who can dial up some K's from time to time. I just love Posey's price on FanDuel, though I think you can go a little cheaper on the other sites.

Derek Norris - FD 2800 DK 3100 Victiv 3900
Opponent- Col (Rusin) L Park- @Sd
Here's one cheaper option. Norris is facing the lefty Chris Rusin, a ground ball guy with a low K rate. Norris has a .359 wOBA over the last couple of seasons against lefties and this is clearly his better platoon split. On FanDuel I'm working to pay up for Posey, but on DraftKings Norris offers a great deal of salary relief in a solid matchup.

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First base

Brandon Belt - FD 3000 DK 4500 Victiv 5200
Opponent- Ari (Godley) R Park- @Ari
The lefty has a lot of what Posey had going for him today. The park is one of the better ones on the slate and he's facing a pitcher who walks on the wild side for a lot of the time. Belt strikes out a great deal against righties, but he also can dial up the power with a .355 wOBA over the last couple of seasons which is up there mostly because of the bat (though he does have a 9% walk rate). I wish he hit a little higher in the order, but the Giants could be in line to put up some runs today and Belt's $3k tag on FanDuel is pretty juicy.

Jose Abreu - FD 3700 DK 4600 Victiv 5600
Opponent- Cle (Tomlin) R Park- @Cws
I know it's kind of a joke how much we've written about Abreu this year. It's so bad in fact that I had a dream someone tracked all the times we wrote about him and graphed it out for me. (Two things about this: please no one do this and also I think it illustrates that I think about this stuff too much.) Anyway, I know Josh Tomlin has come out firing away this season, though his early returns are just so out of whack with a not-insignificant career sample size of simply not doing this on the mound. Tomlin's an extreme flyball pitcher going in a park that doesn't reward that kind of thing. Look, I'm not gangbusters on Abreu today, but I am not exactly avoiding Tomlin.

Consider Eric Hosmer


Second base

Neil Walker - FD 2400 DK 3600 Victiv 4800
Opponent- Cin (Sampson) R Park- @Cin
Hard to get away from these prices as long as he's hitting in the top six of the order. Walker gets shifted all around the Pirates' order so you never know where he'll end up, but this is a guy with a better than .800 OPS over the last couple of seasons against righty pitching. Today's he's facing walk machine Keyvius Sampson who's giving up more than 4.5 free passes per nine with a mid 4's xFIP. Not as bad as the 6+ ERA would suggest, but still an arm susceptible to lefty bats. Walker is coming so cheap at a weaker position and makes some easier decisions in other parts of the lineup.

Jason Kipnis - FD 3100 DK 4300 Victiv 5100
Opponent- CWS (Samardzija) R Park- @cws
For a little more money you can grab a guy like Kipnis. He's facing Jeff Samardzija who's spent the season striking out less than seven batters per nine and rocking an xFIP in the mid 4's. He's no ace and Kipnis, from the leadoff slot gets the advantage of a great hitter's park. He's putting together a fantastic season with an .840 OPS thanks in large part to a .384 OBP. Coming at reasonable prices across the industry if you can spend a little more at second.



Shortstop is a disaster today. And I am kind of understating things when I say that.

Troy Tulowitzki - FD 3400 DK 4200 Victiv 4900
Opponent- Bos (Kelly) R Park- @Bos
I know the price is very cheap (compared to where he's been all season) but this is still a moderate deal for Tulo. Getting dropped in the order doesn't help his overall plate appearance expectation and he's a better hitter against lefties for his career. Even the matchup with Joe Kelly is merely okay. The thing here is he's the best overall offensive player at the position even with the recent struggles and with pitching coming cheap you will see him in a lot of cash games. I think it's a fine play, though his points/$ expectations aren't jumping off the page.

Brandon Crawford - FD 2400 DK 3900 Victiv 4300
Opponent- Ari (Godley) R Park- @Ari
He's been fine enough when playing this season with an OPS creeping up to the .800 range and he's definitely better against righties. He's league average in that platoon which is practically lighting the world on fire for a shortstop. You can tell we like getting on the Giants today and Crawford if he can hit 6th or 7th in the lineup makes an okay play at a rough position. I wouldn't do his price on DraftKings as you can just go up to Tulo, but he's a healthy discount on FanDuel.

Third base

Todd Frazier - FD 2200 DK 4300 Victiv 5000
Opponent- Pit (Happ) L Park- @Cin
If he's in the lineup, Frazier is a must play on FanDuel. He has a very rough August with a lower BABIP and higher strikeout rate. But a minimum price on FanDuel for a middle of the order hitter who's pounded lefties over the last couple of seasons? Yes please. At $2200 I don't think you need to go anywhere else on FanDuel. This is a guy who's put up a higher .800's OPS in this split and the ballpark boosts righty power. It's a no-brainer as far as I'm concerned.

Adrian Beltre - FD 3000 DK 4100 Victiv 4900
Opponent- Sea (Nuno) L Park- @Sea
Not as good a deal, but has a fine matchup in his own right. Beltre is one of the better hitters in the league against southpaws with a .900 OPS and .386 wOBA in that split. Safeco Field isn't exactly a power plant, but Vidal (don't call me Sassoon) Nuno is league average with a lower K rate. Beltre is priced moderately in his dominant split, hitting from the middle of the order. Offers a chance to get away from Frazier on DraftKings.



Mike Trout - FD 4300 DK 4800 Victiv 5500
Opponent- Lad (Latos) R Park- @ana
I don't suspect you have any real issues fitting his salary in there today, and why would you want to avoid him? He's facing Mat Latos who isn't exactly overpowering and Trout's been a hit machine of late. Oh, and he's Mike Trout. A dismal August in which there were serious concerns about an injury has given way to the same old Trout same old in September. His price is still sitting lower because of the month slump and you can continue working to take advantage of the pricing discrepancy.

Starling Marte - FD 3300 DK 4600 Victiv 5100
Opponent- Cin (Sampson) R Park- @Cin
Like his mid range price on FanDuel as long as he's hitting second in the order. Marte's an above average hitter against righties over the last couple of seasons with a 125 wRC+. Gets the benefit of a hitter's park and wild pitcher in Keyvius Sampson. The price tag is a little steep on DraftKings, but on FanDuel he rounds into cash games pretty nicely.

Consider Wil Myers
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4 Visitor Comments

  1. Looking for help on football this season, and any help is greatly appreciated.

  2. If he can avoid the dong at home in San Diego then I think his salary makes it worth the risk.

  3. Justin Upton is one of those guys who is still thought of as a lefty killer, because through his career, he has been. But you have it backwards now. Over this year he has been far superior against Rhp. He can’t hit lefties for power or average any more. His splits are very extreme and the iso drops to around .125 and the W/oba is sub .300 against the southpaws.

    • Wow, I totally and completely misread his splits information when I was writing the picks last night. My brain transposed his career lefty numbers onto this seasons’ stats. Thanks for the catch. I took him out of the picks for the time being and will write someone else up in his place in a bit.

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