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    Nascar picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice

    09/11/2015
    Chris Durell

    Daily Fantasy Nascar Picks
    Federated Auto Parts 400


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    Federated Auto Parts 400

    Richmond International Raceway - Richmond, VA
    Track Type/Length - .75 Mile D Shaped Oval Short Track

    The Bojangles Southern 500 had a record breaking 18 cautions and ended being the longest race of the year. This was good thing for those who enjoyed the throwback paint schemes. Carl Edwards got over losing laps early in the race as he stayed out on older tires. His pit crew was on fire during the race and got him out of the pits in first on the final stop with 8 laps to go. He didn't look back as he took the checkered flag and his second win of the season. The downforce package and tire package used at Darlington lead to some old school racing which most of the drivers loved. NASCAR will go back to the regular 2015 package for the Chase playoffs.

    This week NASCAR heads to Richmond for the final race before the Chase for the Sprint Cup Playoffs. There are 11 drivers who have wins in 2015 and are locked into the Chase. Sitting in 12th - 16th in the standings are McMurray(12th-726 pts), Newman(13th-714 pts), Gordon(14th-700 pts), Menard(15th-692 pts) and Bowyer(16th-682 pts). Aric Almirola sits in 17th place in the standing, 29 points behind Bowyer. It would take some bad luck from Bowyer or Menard and a tremendous finish from Almirola for him to overtake 16th in the Chase Grid. There is a possibility of a driver outside the Chase Grid making it into the playoffs by winning this final race at Richmond. This scenario looks to be a long shot as Richmond is a tough track and none of the drivers outside of 16th have had a lot of success here. Come Saturday night though, none of those drivers care what happened in the past. They are only trying to get the win and into the playoffs. This should make for an exciting race. Here are my picks.

    Upper Tier Targets

    Kevin Harvick
    DraftKings - $11,400
    Fantasy Feud - $265,000
    Vegas Odds - 5.5/1
    Sprint Cup Standings – 1st
    Practice #1 - 4th
    Practice #2 - 1st
    Qualified - 6th

    When looking for a top driver pick for the week, Harvick checks off all boxes. He has had a great track history here.In his previous five races here he has a win and three top 5 finishes with a 6.0 average finish. He has been a an incredible run this year with only three finishes outside of a top 10. He comes into the Richmond race with four straight top 5 finishes and is heating up just in time for the Chase.

    Joey Logano
    DraftKings - $10,400
    Fantasy Feud - $240,000
    Vegas Odds - 8/1
    Sprint Cup Standings – 2nd
    Practice #1 - 10th
    Practice #2 - 14th
    Qualified - 1st

    Another driver that checks every box when looking for a nice play in fantasy this weekend. Logano has one win, three top 5's, and four top 10 finishes here at Richmond in his previous five races here. He also holds a 7.4 average finish in that time as well. He is on a roll as of late as well with two wins in his previous four races and four straight top 7 finishes. Look for another strong run for the #22 this weekend.

    Kurt Busch
    DraftKings - $9,800
    Fantasy Feud - $215,000
    Vegas Odds - 9/1
    Sprint Cup Standings – 9th
    Practice #1 - 14th
    Practice #2 - 5th
    Qualified - 8th

    Coming off a 6th place finish at Darlington, Busch comes back to Richmond where he has fared quite well over the past few years. In his previous five races here he has a win, two top 5's and four top 10 finishes with a 8.4 average finish. In those five races Kurt has also lead the second most laps(400) to Brad Keselowski(648). He has had a very successful season in the #41 and will be looking to keep the momentum going in to the Chase where he will seek his second championship.

    Middle Tier Targets

    Kyle Larson
    DraftKings - $8,000
    Fantasy Feud - $155,000
    Vegas Odds - 29/1
    Sprint Cup Standings – 19th
    Practice #1 - 1st
    Practice #2 - 17th
    Qualified - 11th

    He has raced here at Richmond three times before and has not recorded a top 10 finish. He has a 13.4 average finish though so I feel he is close to breaking through here. He won't be short motivation this week as he will need a win to get in the Chase Grid. While writing this pick I tuned in to the first practice and see Larson is sitting at the top of the leaderboard. Look for Larson to carry the speed over into the race tomorrow night and fight for a win and his playoff life.

    Ryan Newman
    DraftKings - $7,700
    Fantasy Feud - $135,000
    Vegas Odds - 41/1
    Sprint Cup Standings – 11th
    Practice #1 - 9th
    Practice #2 - 15th
    Qualified - 13th

    Sitting safely inside the Chase Grid Newman will probably be looking to find some speed and build some momentum going into the Chase. He has one top 5 and three top 10 finishes in his previous five races here. In those five races he has an average starting position of 18.4 and a 9.4 average finish. This is good when looking for place differential points. He has also been quite consistent as of late as well with two top 10's and two top 15's in his last five races. I will be looking for some speed out of Newman and hopefully a starting position outside the top 15 this week.

    Low End Target

    Justin Allgaier
    DraftKings - $5,600
    Fantasy Feud - $85,000
    Vegas Odds - 501/1
    Sprint Cup Standings – 30th
    Practice #1 - 22nd
    Practice #2 - 18th
    Qualified - 18th

    He let me down last week with a 33rd place finish and only 5 DK points but I will jump back on the wagon this week. In three races here at Richmond, he has an average starting position of 26.7 and a 22.3 average finishing position. He was 22nd in the first practice today and if he qualifies outside the top 25 this week he will present some low end value that will help you roster the top drivers. Be sure to check back for post practice/qualifying updates.

    Post Qualifying Update

    Joey Logano won the pole for Saturdays night race and will have a great shot at leading a bunch of laps and collecting a ton of fantasy points. Kevin Harvick was 4th in practice 1, 1st in final practice and qualified 6th for the race. He will also have a great opportunity to lock up another win before the Chase. Brad Keselowski and Matt Kenseth were 1st and 2nd in Final Practice when looking at consecutive 10 lap average. They should have good long run cars come Saturday night. On the low end of the salary range look for Danica Patrick to be a nice value play in stars & scrubs lineups. She was 12th in first practice, 7th in final practice, and qualified 14th for the race. With, what seems to be, extra value plays near the bottom this week a few extra stars and scrubs lineups may be the way to go.

    Want to see how these picks and more fit into lineups for the Federated Auto Parts 400? Chris is selling a cheatsheet and lineups for DraftKings and FantasyFeud for $5. This is a separate service than our traditional monthly membership. Head over to our PayPal payment page, if that's more your bag.


    Chris Durell has been playing Daily Fantasy Sports for three years and fantasy in general for more than a decade. He is active player in college football, NFL, NBA, PGA, and of course NASCAR. He lives in Saskatchewan, Canada with his wife and two daughters. You can follow him on Twitter at @jager_bombs9 for advice, strategy, answers to any NASCAR questions or how he copes with the winters up north.

     

    image sources

    • 2048px-NASCAR_practice: By U.S. Air Force photo by Larry McTighe [Public domain], via Wikimedia Commons

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