featured Daily Fantasy Expert Advice

Doug Norrie

Daily NFL Fantasy Football Thoughts for FanDuel and DraftKings Heading into Week 2

Well, we made it. Another glorious NFL Sunday in the books for Week 1. There were definitely some good news/ bad news situations going on across the NFL landscape. But there is a piece of great news, we have many more months of this yet to come.

Chris Raybon handled our Week one NFL picks and if you followed his advice, plus a little nudge from our system, there's a good chance you were sitting in the green by the end of Monday night. Let's look at some pieces of Week One that we can use as takeaways going forward.

Out with (some) old, in with (some) new QBs

Marcus Mariotta y'all. From a fantasy perspective, dude looked every bit the Heisman winner in his first game. And for those of you who, like us, played college football DFS last season, this is what we saw week in and week out. He filled it up about every Saturday for Oregon and came out of the gate with four touchdown passes in his first NFL game on only 206 total yards. The truth on these numbers lies somewhere in between. While he didn't need to throw all that often (with Tennessee curb-stomping Tampa Bay early), he was also incredibly efficient on 13/16 passing. A quarter of his yards came on the long (after the catch) touchdown to Wright. But Mariotta didn't need to do a whole lot as the game was out of hand early. The 4 passing touchdowns are probably an anaomly, though some of that down and close stuff he did could translate to him rushing more in future games. Either way, he looked great.

Additionally, Tyrod Taylor managed a well-balanced game for the Bills - going 14/19 from the field for 195 and a touchdown and throwing in 41 yards rushing on 9 carries as well. Somewhat like Mariotta, a quarter of Taylor's passing yards came on the first touchdown pass of the game, a 51 yarder to Percy Harvin. While the Bills won't all of a sudden turn into a crazy passing team, it's nice to see the accuracy from Taylor. That he also added 40 yards on the ground bodes well for his floor on any given week. The Bills aren't a prolific offense, but their defense should get them back on the field in a lot of situations and Taylor's first game had a lot of positive signs.

Jameis Winston on the other hand? Oof.

Injuries and what they could mean for week 2. 

With injuries to Dez Bryant and T.Y. Hilton in week one, their backups (and a couple of guys who stand to see a big time boost in production) also saw some of the biggest price jumps between the first and second weeks. Terrence Williams and Donte Montcrief saw jumps of $1000 and $1200 respectively on FanDuel. These pricing adjustments don't necessarily put these guys out of play as they become somewhat de facto WR1's with the big boys going down. But the sites are aware of the increase in potential production as well. Unlike with Davante Adams, whose price was already out when Jordy Nelson went down during the preseason, week two's prices are already adjusted some. Keep that in mind.

Andre Johnson on the other hand, after seeing 10 targets in week one and only hauling in 4, sees his price move only $100. The Colts' receiving core is one to keep an eye on. Hilton hasn't been officially ruled out, but it isn't looking good for the dude heading into Week two.

Meanwhile, Dez Bryant is out and that could open up quite a bit for the rest of the offense. The Cowboys spread the ball pretty well in their last second win against the Giants, and what Dez wasn't much of a factor throughout. He went to the locker room early with dehydration and then a broken bone in his foot will keep him out for the foreseeable future. The obvious guy to begin looking at is Terrence Williams who had the second most targets on the team after Witten (and tied with Dunbar). But the opportunities could really cascade for the Cowboys heading into Week 2 against the Eagles. They should see more touches as a team against the track meet pace of Philly and everyone could see a boost across the board.

Price Dips and what they mean for the rest of NFL season

Is Peyton Manning cooked? I'm not sure any one player (in the spotlight) looked worse on Sunday than Manning. It was popular fodder on Twitter that Manning was playing with a fork sticking out his back. Passes floated, he looked erratic and the performance wasn't anything short of abysmal. Some of this is attributed to Baltimore's defense. And of course we shouldn't make any large scale proclamations based on one game. But he did look bad. His price is down $1000 entering a game against a tougher Kansas City defense on the road. It's tough to make a strong case for him leading into this game and the price taking a plunge doesn't appear (at least on the outset) to make him a bargain play. Additionally, if you think Peyton's over the hill and then some, downgrade that receiving core as well. The ball just wasn't getting to them.

Sammy Watkins on the other hand sees a similar dip in price after a week in which he saw three targets and zero receptions. Not all bad games are created equally though. The Colts ranked in the top ten in the league in DVOA against WR1's last season thanks to Vontae Davis. This, combined with Tyrod Taylor making things happen with his feet more and only throwing 19 passes in a blowout win and you get a terrible game from Watkins. He sees a big drop in salary this week and he could make an interesting play this week if the Bills make an effort to get him the ball.

Carlos Hyde was Adrian Peterson

Although the ESPN crew did their very best to paint Adrian Peterson's return to a Viking uniform as some kind of redemption tour (ignoring, for the most part, why he was out of a uniform for so long), Peterson became very much an afterthought with only thirteen touches. Carlos Hyde on the other hand was the highest scoring running back on the day. He carried the ball twenty-six times for 168 yards and two touchdowns. Though Jim Harbaugh's gone from helming the 49ers' game plan, it's hard to imagine their general philosphy changes too terribly much. By percentages, they ran the ball the fourth most in the league last year. If Hyde is going to see the majority of these carries then you are staring down the barrel at a fantasy stud out of the backfield.

That's all I got for now. We'll be pumping NFL content out all week with our main picks article, some site specific plays, sleepers and stacks later in the week and much more. If you haven't already, check out our free NFL e-book below. And make sure to sign up for a free 3-day trial of our NFL projection system.


1 Visitor Comment

  1. to Chris- Lots of great picks, but Why no mention of Julio Jones in week 1 though? Would have won every league I was in had I not faded for Odel. I’m not saying this to complain, but to improve as a player. Was there some factor that made you avoid him in that game against Philly?

Post a Reply




Our free NBA and MLB eBooks, and picks to your inbox every day!

Your eBooks are on their way!