Baseball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice

Doug Norrie

Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings, StarsDraft and DraftPot 8/21/15

Not all daily fantasy baseball slates are created the same. And today you've got two mini ones going. There are some interesting price differences on DraftKings and FanDuel. But we've got you covered with our picks.

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Corey Kluber - FD 11000 DK 12300 StarsDraft
Opponent- KC (Ventura) R Park- @Cle
Know this: he isn't a great points per dollar play on this slate. Dude's expensive and the Royals are a top ten team against righties this season. To boot, they don't strike out at all. That makes the margins on Kluber very small and he needs a lot to go right in order to hit any kind of value. The flip side is the rest of the slate's pitching is hot garbage and you are left with some very awkward decisions coming off the bump. From a raw points expectation he is the highest, but it comes at a cost. And like I said, it's a tad risky. Kluber's peripherals this seasons are fantastic with a K rate close to 10 per nine and walks rate under two. His 3.01 xFIP is close to elite and he's obviously one of the best pitchers in baseball. I just don't like the matchup.

Chris Tillman - FD 6800 DK 5400 StarsDraft
Opponent- TB (Moore) L Park- @TB
I'm putting him on here strictly as a system cost play. Tillman is mediocre at best, bad at worst. But he has a couple of things going for him on this slate. One, he's cheap so you can load up on bats across the board. He's facing a Rays' team ranked 25th in the league against righties on the year and have very little when it comes to lefty pop. Plus Tillman is going in one of the best pitcher's parks in baseball. Again, dude's far from lights out and there's a reason I'm not using his actual stats to make a case here. But on a day in which pitching makes me a little nauseous, you might need to take a chance or two.

Early Slate Special - Charlie Morton


John Jaso - FD 2200 DK 2500 StarsDraft 3800
Opponent- Bal (Tillman) R Park- @TB
Things I like about John Jaso: He's about the only catcher (eligible) in the league who hits leadoff for his team. This is an incredible advantage in daily games where plate appearance expectation makes a big difference in projecting a players' points. I also love his 13% walk rate and .818 OPS for the season. These are encouraging numbers. Where he's hurt is the Rays play that platoon game in the later innings and he can get pulled earlier than your average starter. All in all, the price is okay with this eventuality and you can grab value on the dude if he's setting the table.

Russell Martin - FD 2800 DK 3600 StarsDraft 4300
Opponent- Atl (Wisler) R Park- @Atl
Been good enough against righty pitching over the last couple of seasons that we can think about playing him on this slate against Matt Wisler. The latter is rocking an xFIP in the mid 5's with a walk rate close to 4 per nine. Wisler makes me want to play a lot of Jays on this slate except that many of them are cost prohibitive. Martin though does well enough against righty pitching with an .800 OPS and 124 wRC+ over the last couple of seasons.

Early Slate Special - Josh Phegley


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First base

Freddie Freeman - FD 3400 DK 4000 StarsDraft 5200
Opponent- Tor (Estrada) R Park- @Atl
Tough to get a warm and fuzzy feeling with first basemen today as a bunch of them are either over-priced, in tough matchups or both. Freeman is in a good, not great spot against Estrada who strikes out less than seven batters per nine this season with an xFIP closing in five. Now some of that is having to pitch in a power park, but bro hasn't been all that good this season. Freeman's numbers have been solid, if not spectacular (for a power first baseman) this season with a mid .800's OPS and 130 wRC+. His walk rate keeps the floor high especially for cash games, though he's dragged down some by the rest of that offense.

Chris Carter - FD 2400 DK 3300 StarsDraft 4500
Opponent- Tex (Lewis) R Park- @Tex
Very much a feast or (probably) famine play. Going in his favor is the ballpark which really boosts righty power. He's also facing a low K, high flyball pitcher in Colby Lewis who can definitely succumb to the long ball. Carter strikes out a ton. With ton being an understatment. He's a tournament play and nothing more, but the price won't kill you and there is some power upside considering the contextual stuff.

Early Slate Special - Jose Abreu


Second base

Brian Dozier - FD 2900 DK 4700 StarsDraft 5200
Opponent- LAA (Santiago) L Park- @Min
I'll get to some of my Hector Santiago dislike later in this writeup, but let me sum some of it by saying, "I dislike him." Not from a personal perspective. I'm sure he's a perfectly lovely human being. But from a pitching point of view, he isn't a guy I necessarily want to avoid. And on FanDuel, Dozier is coming just too cheap to pass up. Dozier's been an even splits guy on the season, but for his career he's significantly better against lefties (to an almost extreme degree) with an .835 OPS and .360 wOBA. I'm willing to buy more into the long term sample than the short term struggles. He's got a good matchup and the leadoff slot helps him as compared to some other second baseman on the slate.

Jason Kipnis - FD 2900 DK 4100 StarsDraft 5000
Opponent- KC (Ventura) R Park- @Cle
I like Dozier much more on FanDuel, but on DraftKings it's a little closer with Kipnis. If you are looking to save a couple of bucks for a few less points, then Kipnis makes a solid play. The matchup against Yordano Ventura isn't ideal, but Kipnis has put together a fantastic season when healthy and the price there is just enough in the mid tier to take a little value.

Early Slate Special - Neil Walker



Jhonny Peralta - FD 2500 DK 3400 StarsDraft 4500
Opponent- Mil (Nelson) R Park- @Mil
Very much in a "Who blinks first" situation between me, Jhonny Peralta and rational expectations when I'm throwing dude in the picks every time. But I still think it just makes sense. Considering shortstop is typically a barren wasteland of dashed offensive dreams, Peralta's one of the few guys who hits near the top of the order and has a career handling the bat (comparatively at least). It's tough because he's been so light hitting over the longer term and playing him day-after-day can really prove a buzzkill. But there just aren't really any better options in this price tier with his kind of plate appearance expectation.


Early Slate Special - Strongly consider Marcus Semien if he's batting leadoff against the lefty Quintana

Third base

Matt Carpenter - FD 3100 DK 4300 StarsDraft 4900
Opponent- Mil (Nelson) R Park- @Mil
Carpenter's price has come way down in the short term, especially on FanDuel where he's priced close to the must-play point. Hitting leadoff and putting together a productive year, Carpenter's .800 OPS and 124 season wRC+ don't deserve pricing in that tier and even with the K rate up this season, he still makes a very solid cash game play. Jimmy Nelson is a midrange pitcher with a fine enough strikeout rate who has erratic tendencies. I'm not as in love with Carpenter on DraftKings, but the price there is fine enough considering you won't need to pay a ton for pitching on the slate.

Trevor Plouffe - FD 2800 DK 4100 StarsDraft 4600
Opponent- LAA (Santiago) L Park- @Min
I've been no fan of Hector Santiago this season and was willing to bet against him often on the mound (for better or worse). It just looked like a lot of his stuff was smoke and mirrors. Even with a solid K rate, the xFIP was just so far behind the ERA. I'm willing to keep betting against him today with some of the Twins' righties. Plouffe is an above average hitter against lefties over the last couple of seasons with a 115 wRC+ and close to .800 OPS. Neither number will blow you away, but neither will the price.

Early Slate Special - Mike Olt



Adam Jones - FD 2800 DK 3900 StarsDraft 5100
Opponent- TB (Moore) L Park- @TB
Steve Pearce - FD 2400 DK 2700 StarsDraft 4500
Opponent- TB (Moore) L Park- @TB
Matt Moore's been a dumpster fire dressed in a pitcher's uniform this year. It's been brutal with a 5.70 K/9 rate to go along with walking close to four batters in that same frame. Those numbers, combined (or contributing to) a 5.84 xFIP make him one of the worst overall pitchers in baseball this season. The drop's been precipitous. Both Jones and Pearce make a couple of righties to play against Moore and both are coming on the cheaper side of things. I don't love the ballpark as Tropicana Field really depresses power, but the matchup is choice and both guys fit easily with their respective salaries.

George Springer - FD 3300 DK 4500 StarsDraft 5200
Opponent- Tex (Lewis) R Park- @Tex
Colby Rasmus - FD 2900 DK 3700 StarsDraft 4400

Opponent- Tex (Lewis) R Park- @Tex
Preston Tucker - FD 2500 DK 3300 StarsDraft 3500
Opponent- Tex (Lewis) R Park- @Tex
I could have gone the short route and just said to consider playing anyone from the Astros' outfield today, but their names seem to look a little better on the page. Springer's the obvious guy from the leadoff slot. He has a wide range of power and speed which suit the dude perfectly for cash games. Colby Lewis allows a lot of flyballs which is a problem in a power park like Arlington. The other two guys are plug and plays assuming they are in the lineup and hitting in the top six or so.
And infinity cheap guys - for those, grab a free three day trial of our projection system. Good luck out there!


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2 Visitor Comments

  1. Thanks! Any help in future is greatly welcomed. And If i could see more proof of your gram and the winners it could produce, I would maybe buy in. its just hard to believe you can generate 50$ per day with your system. Hope to be proven wrong.

  2. Ben, Thanks for the comment. We have free ebooks that explain our process. Just enter email and they are right in your inbox. Where did you see generating $50/day? In our copy it says our system costs 0.50 a day. Is that what you saw?

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