Basketball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and DraftPot - 1/6/16
It's a monster Wednesday in the NBA with eleven games on the schedule. Now of course it'll be tough to top some of the fantasy smorgasbord we had last night where it seems just about every player went off. But there's plenty to like on this schedule.
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Russell Westbrook - FD 10700 DK 11600
Opponent - MEM FD Proj. Pts - 52.92 DK Proj. Pts - 54.75
This one's easy. I know it's against Memphis, but this is Westbrook sans-Durant we are talking about and there are few (anyone?) better in the game when he's the top dog. Westbrook went 17/15/8 against the Kings the other night and really only the scoring held him back. Considering the situation and the huge slate, I think he's very safe money in this top tier and suspect he'll be the highest percentage start.
Brandon Knight - FD 6700 DK 7400
Opponent - CHA FD Proj. Pts - 33.12 DK Proj. Pts - 35.19
He's about the only Sun whose minutes appear in any way safe. He's also really the only guy on the team who can score with any kind of consistency, and he really isn't all that consistent. But the Phoenix should continue to play him minutes in the upper register. Charlotte is about league average against opposing point guards and Knight's price makes him on the safer side.
Jameer Nelson - FD 5500 DK 5500
Opponent - MIN FD Proj. Pts - 27.35 DK Proj. Pts - 30.3
It's always so hard trusting the Nuggets' minutes on a nightly basis. But Jameer appears to have a handle on the point guard spot with Mudiay out. His minutes are higher and he's put up solid lines over the last three games. Minnesota is in the bottom third of the league in defensive efficiency and the Nuggets will have opportunities to score. Nelson's price is low considering his opportunity right now.
Patty Mills - FD 3800 DK 4100
Opponent - UTA FD Proj. Pts - 17.79 DK Proj. Pts - 19.43
He got the start for Tony Parker the other night and should get it again as Parker's already been ruled out for this one. He didn't take as many shots as I thought we'd see from him with the first unit, but he's coming at punt prices and should run in the upper 20's. I really like buying him today as I think some people we disappointed with his performance on Monday.
Victor Oladipo - FD 5700 DK 5800
Opponent - IND FD Proj. Pts - 30.4 DK Proj. Pts - 31.76
He's on here solely if Elfrid Payton were to sit again tonight. Oladipo stepped into the starting point guard slot against Detroit, played 35 minutes and put up an 18/7/5 line. He's struggled this season and coming off the bench hasn't righted the ship, but if he's running things against the Pacers tonight then I think he's very nearly a must play.
Anthony Morrow - FD 3600 DK 3700
Opponent - MEM FD Proj. Pts - 17.88 DK Proj. Pts - 20.24
He started and played 34 minutes with Durant out of the lineup on Monday. Morrow is cheap which is good. He has to do very little in order to hit value. But what worries me about the guy is just how dependent he is on scoring. He does very little else on the basketball court and if the shot isn't falling he can sink you even at these punt prices. Cheap enough to take a stab on, but not a lock.
Devin Booker - FD 3600 DK 4300
Opponent - CHA FD Proj. Pts - 19.42 DK Proj. Pts - 22.35
One thing to know about the Suns is that they stink. But they are a team playing short-handed now that Bledsoe is done for the year and their best course of action is to probably just lose from here on out. After getting crushed by the Lakers of all teams, it's tough to know how the minutes' rotations are going to work. But Booker isn't too far removed from a couple of games with minutes near 40.
Evan Turner - FD 5700 DK 5600
Opponent - DET FD Proj. Pts - 25.45 DK Proj. Pts - 26.22
He's played major minutes the last two games with Avery Bradley out and that should continue again tonight. Turner isn't exactly a punt, but he's a mid tier guy who's looking at minutes in the mid-to-upper 30's. We'll take it. The last two games have him averaging a 12/9/3 which gets him to value.
Carmelo Anthony - FD 8600 DK 8200
Opponent - MIA FD Proj. Pts - 39.45 DK Proj. Pts - 41.41
He's coming off a very strong game against the Hawks last night and remains an underpriced commodity, especially on DraftKings. While he's given up some of his scoring as compared to last season, the rebounds and assists are both up. Miami is a slower, defensively sound squad, but this is more about lack of options than anything else. Small forward is light and I'll probably opt to go a little cheaper. But Melo is still a fine value in this price tier.
Chandler Parsons - FD 5100 DK 5600
Opponent - NOP FD Proj. Pts - 23.33 DK Proj. Pts - 25.4
I'm a little concerned with him coming off the back-to-back here even though the minutes' restrictions appear to be off. Parsons is coming very cheap for a guy who could be playing minutes in the low 30's. Parsons has really struggled from the field lately and last night it looked like he was even having trouble getting his legs into shots. But he's still putting it up and the price is just too low considering this is against a very weak defensive squad.
Shabazz Muhammad - FD 3900 DK 3700
Opponent - DEN FD Proj. Pts - 19.97 DK Proj. Pts - 20.97
If you think the recent uptick in minutes is going to be a real thing then you are buying very low on Shabazz. He can fill it up in the scoring department in short spurts so he doesn't need a ton of run. But this is very speculative of course. It's never easy running a dude coming in off the bench (unless you're Will Barton) so he makes for more of a tournament play for me.
Anthony Davis - FD 10200 DK 10300
Opponent - DAL FD Proj. Pts - 50.67 DK Proj. Pts - 51.46
Other than Westbrook, he's the big money play on the night. The Pelicans have really struggled this year, though Davis is still working it on the fantasy end averaging a 23/11 on the season to go with a a couple of blocks. The Mavs will have real mismatch issues here with Brow as Dirk doesn't have the speed to keep up with him and neither does Zaza. Dallas allows a ton of rebounding to opposing big men, especially on the defensive glass. Outside of the nightly injury concern for Davis, he's about a no-brainer for me.
Tristan Thompson - FD 4700 DK 5200
Opponent - WAS FD Proj. Pts - 23.11 DK Proj. Pts - 23.64
Thompson looks locked into the starting lineup for now at the center spot and should continue to produce well beyond these salaries. He's averaging double digit rebounds over his last seven games and if he can score even a little then he'll easily outpace these salaries. Washington plays at a break neck pace and should allow Cleveland some more volume. There's some blowout concern here, but Thompson is safer at these prices.
Serge Ibaka - FD 6500 DK 6600
Opponent - MEM FD Proj. Pts - 29.66 DK Proj. Pts - 31.25
He sees a moderate usage bump when Durant is off the floor (from 18 to about 22) and OKC will be incentivized to play him major minutes again as they're short handed with out KD. Ibaka can pick up a little of the three point shooting load though the rebounding hasn't been through the roof this season.
Nikola Vucevic - FD 7500 DK 7300
Opponent - IND FD Proj. Pts - 37.38 DK Proj. Pts - 37.89
Indiana's had trouble defending centers in the scoring department and that's Vuce's bread and butter. He's coming off two down games, but look for the minutes to bounce back here. The Pacers are allowing somewhere around 7% more scoring than league average to opposing centers. Vucevic does have a mid range jumper to go with a post game and I think he's in a solid spot tonight.
Karl-Anthony Towns - FD 7500 DK 7200
Opponent - DEN FD Proj. Pts - 34.96 DK Proj. Pts - 35.58
Oh do I ever want the minutes to be there tonight. Towns has been in and out of positive rotations in the short term but this is the kind of matchup to really go wild. Denver allows worse than league average scoring and rebounding to opposing centers and I like buying Towns after a couple of down games. It's easy to look at the game log and get spooked, but this is just such a great matchup that if he gets that run back into the low 30's then you are in great shape.
Jeff Withey - FD 4700 DK 4600
Opponent - SAS FD Proj. Pts - 28.34 DK Proj. Pts - 28.79
There's a very good chance the Jazz get absolutely smoked by the Spurs but Withey is still a solid play. Derrick Favors won't play, leaving the Jazz dangerously shallow in the big man category. Withey's been asked to log major minutes in the last four games and he's averaging nearly a double-double. This one is all about price and opportunity. I think Withey's out there some even if the Jazz are getting smoked simply because they don't have many bigs with Favors and Gobert out.
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- Russell Westbrook: (AP Photo/Jeff Haynes)