Basketball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice

01/28/2016
Doug Norrie

Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and DraftPot - 1/28/16

We are used to smaller Thursday slates, but this one has six games and some real interesting matchups to boot. Thursdays tend to be a bit slower on the DFS front, but not this one. Thank goodness.

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POINT GUARD

John Wall - FD 9600 DK 9100
Opponent - DEN
FD Proj. Pts - 42.46 DK Proj. Pts - 43.67
He's not as strong a Pts/$ play as the guys below, but I see him as a safe commodity on this slate. You can make a case for paying up at point guard considering some of the other savings down the line. Wall's struggled from the floor in three of his last four games after coming off a consistent fantasy run. Look for a bounce back tonight, playing against a Denver team ranking as one of the worst in the league against opposing point guards.

Emmanuel Mudiay - FD 5100 DK 5800
Opponent - WAS
FD Proj. Pts - 27.83 DK Proj. Pts - 29
This pick is all about minutes and pace. Mudiay is still very much a work in progress, but he stands to see the most minutes out of the one if Jameer Nelson is still on the shelf. He's been scoring more consistently lately, but that's thanks in part to an increase in shot volume. He isn't a great (or really good) shooter, but he'll work driving at the rim or taking some ill-advised threes. I'm mostly looking at the playing time and price, which is still very low. The Wiz are a fast team, leaving plenty of volume for the opponent.

Norris Cole - FD 4300 DK 5100
Opponent - SAC
FD Proj. Pts - 20.62 DK Proj. Pts - 21.77
Cole has seen a bump in minutes lately because Tyreke's knee's been acting up. It still doesn't seem like the latter is close to 100% and Norris should continue swapping between the one and two depending on the rotations. He isn't a lock at these prices simply because his performances can vary wildly. But with Gordon out, Evans limping and Brow's head hurting, the Pels are playing real shorthanded right now.

If Kobe sits again, I really like Jordan Clarkson who gets a big minutes boost when Mamba is out. Also, Aaron Brooks would get a huge bump if Derrick Rose sits with the injury.

SHOOTING GUARD

Tony Allen - FD 4600 DK 5000
Opponent - MIL
FD Proj. Pts - 24.04 DK Proj. Pts - 24.6
If he's in the starting lineup has been playing bigger minutes as the Grizz are incentivized to have him match up against the opponents' bigger scorers. Allen should be out there a bunch today as the Bucks have a couple of dangerous wing players. Tony won't score a ton, but he chips in just about everywhere and his floor comes in high all things considered. He won't break the bank on you and I think he's completely safe in cash games.

Jimmy Butler - FD 8700 DK 8800
Opponent - LAL
FD Proj. Pts - 38.34 DK Proj. Pts - 39.96
It's easy to look at his game logs of late and be unimpressed with Jimmy Minutes' output. But remember, he faced two of the the slower, more defensively-minded teams in the league in Cleveland and Miami (they rank 5 and 6 in Def Eff). Butler's minutes and shot volume have been there, and he could see both tonight against the worst D in the league, the Lakers. His price is high, but I really like the floor on Jimmy.

Consider Courtney Lee and Monta Ellis

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SMALL FORWARD

Danilo Gallinari - FD 6900 DK 7000
Opponent - WAS
FD Proj. Pts - 33.11 DK Proj. Pts - 35.74
Ooh, I love this matchup for Gallo. Washington's been one of the worst teams in the league this season against opposing small forwards. They are allowing about 16% more scoring than league average to the position, and are just shredded by the three. Gallo is a big minutes, higher-volume shooter who the Nuggets will run the offense through in the right matchup. He's the top play at the position tonight and I will have him all over cash games on both sites.

Omri Casspi - FD 5200 DK 5800
Opponent - NOP
FD Proj. Pts - 26.19 DK Proj. Pts - 27.44
He didn't start for Rudy Gay on Tuesday, but I can see an scenario in which the Kings decide to go a little smaller tonight, especially if Davis is out. That could leave minutes for Casspi who's typically the big benefactor with Gay sitting. He provides scoring which the Kings could have used more the other night, especially if they are running rotations with Cauley-Stein and Mclemore on the court at the same time.

Alonzo Gee - FD 4000 DK 4100
Opponent - SAC
FD Proj. Pts - 17.92 DK Proj. Pts - 19.13
Been running with the starters and playing minutes in the mid 30's. Look for more of that if Brow is out, but I don't mind Gee either way. He's a lower ceiling, higher floor kind of guy who's just active enough in his time out there to be considered a value. He needs every one of those minutes though.

Consider Paul George

POWER FORWARD

Ryan Anderson - FD 5700 DK 6300
Opponent - SAC
FD Proj. Pts - 29.94 DK Proj. Pts - 33.04
It really doesn't look like Brow will play in this one which should open up big minutes for Anderson. In the last three games in which Davis missed the game or significant time, Anderson is averaging a 17/9 in around 40 minutes per. He's a great deal on FanDuel and definitely in play on DraftKings as well. Again, this is contingent on no Davis, but it sure doesn't look like Sir Brow will play.

Willie Cauley-Stein - FD 4500 DK 5100
Opponent - NOP
FD Proj. Pts - 26.09 DK Proj. Pts - 26.56
He's be a revelation for the Kings of late, running with the starters and really allowing Boogie chances to range away from the basket. That's opened up plenty of scoring and rebounding opportunities for the guy and his price is only creeping up the scale. It's still way too low considering his role for Sacramento right now and he has an all-around fantasy game that gives him a high floor relative to price.

Taj Gibson - FD 4800 DK 5500
Opponent - LAL
FD Proj. Pts - 23.95 DK Proj. Pts - 24.36
With Joakim Noah out indefinitely, and Mirotic down with an appendectomy, look for Gibson to gobble up a ton of big man minutes for the Bulls.

 

CENTER

Pau Gasol - FD 8700 DK 8700
Opponent - LAL
FD Proj. Pts - 40.98 DK Proj. Pts - 41.67
Pau's crushed over the last two games, averaging a 22/14/4 against the Heat and Cavs (no slouches on defensive). Tonight he'll get the exact opposite in the Lakers, a team allowing about 11% more scoring and 13% more rebounding than league average to opposing centers. Could turn into a blowout obviously, but I like Pau to do damage even in limited run.

Marcin Gortat - FD 7000 DK 7100
Opponent - DEN
FD Proj. Pts - 33.35 DK Proj. Pts - 33.89
The Lakers have been horrendous against opposing centers, but Denver's been no great shakes either. Gortat draws a favorable matchup and should see minutes in the low thirties. I expect this game to be up and down the court. Gortat hasn't seen a ton of shots in the last couple of games, but I think the Wiz will be incentivized to work the ball down low against this defense. Look for a bounce back game from Marcin.

Strongly consider Demarcus Cousins

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2 Visitor Comments

  1. The word of the day: incentivized. Ha ha ha, great write up, I am on the email list and read everyday but I did not see an email today

  2. C’mon Harris and Porter, why ya both got under 5 points in the 1st QTR? !!??

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