Daily Fantasy PGA Picks for DraftKings  - Waste Management Phoenix Open

DFSR is proud to bring you our newest contributor Chris Durell. He'll be bringing weekly PGA picks, analysis and breakdowns to help you cash on DraftKings. If you are new to DraftKings PGA DFS be sure to click on the banner below.

Want to see how these picks and more fit into lineups for the Waste Management Phoenix Open? Chris is selling lineups only $5. He covers DraftKings, FantasyFeud & FantasyAces Cash Games & Tournaments. Just scroll to the bottom of the picks. This is a separate service than our traditional monthly membership.

Waste Management Phoenix Open

TPC Scottsdale - Scottsdale, Arizona

Par 71 - 7,266 Yards
 

It took a Monday finish for the Farmers Insurance Open to finish due to horrible weather conditions that affected "almost" everyone in the field. There were two separate stoppages on Sunday due to rain and extreme winds but that didn't affect Brandt Snedeker. He went into Sunday trailing the leader and many other players but quickly shot up the leaderboard as he was the only player under par for the day. To be exact he was -3 on Sunday shooting an incredible 69 when the field average was around 78 for the day. He finished his round 1 back of Jimmy Walker before play was suspended. The tournament finished up on Monday and saw Jimmy Walker and KJ Choi struggle allowing Snedeker to snatch the win without having to step onto the course Monday. The players will now take a short trip East for this week's tournament in Arizona.

We are back at the TPC Scottsdale Stadium Course for what is expected to be another entertaining Waste Management Phoenix Open. Most famous for its Par 3, 16th hole built inside a 20,000 seat stadium atmosphere. It is by far the loudest hole in golf and pushes players to be perfect or face the crowd. Hit the green and birdie, the crowd will go nuts. Miss the green or worse yet three putt, and the crowd will boo louder than you have ever heard. You will see things on this hole you will not see on any other course during a professional event. From Padraig Harrington kicking field goals

 

 

to James Hahn roweling up the crowd pre putt and even a Gangnam Style dance following a birdie putt.

The tournament set an attendance record last year with 564,368 entering the gates Monday through Sunday. On a daily basis the 16th hole alone will see 20,000+ fans. Mark my words. I will be reporting from this tournament LIVE next year.

The TPC Scottsdale Stadium Course is a 7,266 yard, Par 71 setup. For the second straight week we are going to be targeting long hitters. The three Par 5 holes are all over 550 yards and all reachable for guys who are above average in driving distance. Ball Striking as a whole is going to be important as well. Accuracy off the tee isn't essential throughout the course but there are a few holes with strategically placed bunkers and water which will require an accurate drive. Greens in Regulation will be important to get birdie putts but a better indicator will be Proximity and more specifically from certain ranges. I looked at the Par 4's and the average drive(290 yards) on Tour and there will be four holes with an average approach distance between 125-150 yards and four holes with an average approach between 150-175 yards. What does this all mean? If you are targeting long hitters have a peak at their ranking of Proximity from 125-150 yards and if you are targeting a shorter hitter make sure they are competent with Proximity from 150-175 yards. I have added both of these to the cheatsheet this week for easy viewing. As always Strokes Gained Tee to Green will be heavily weighed.

Another feature added to cheatsheet this week is a list of the Top 10 from last years tournament and their performances on the Par 3/4/5's for the week. I also listed their weekly ranking in some key stats. The cheatsheet is evolving weekly(recently added a weighting system for stats) and is still only $5 a week. If you are a player that plays every week contact us about a subscription.

Below are a few of the key stats that will be used on the cheatsheet this week:

• Strokes Gained: Tee to Green
• Driving Distance
• Driving Accuracy
• Greens in Regulation
• Proximity
• Birdie or Better %
• Par 4 Scoring Average
• Par 5 Scoring Average

 

 High End Targets ($10,000+)

Bubba Watson
Vegas Odds - 11/1
Draftkings - $12,100
Fantasy Feud - $188,000
Fantasy Aces - $6,100

Going back to the top this week and taking Bubba as my top pick. Hard to not pay up for Bubba here in Phoenix. He has finished runner up in back to back years and hasn't finished worse than 29th in the past five years. He is a bomber that can shape any shot and hits a ton of greens and kills the Par 5 holes. He has been off since the start of January where he finished T10 at the Hyundai Tournament of Champions. Look for a strong week from Bubba and the pink driver.

• Strokes Gained: Tee to Green - 6
• Driving Distance - 1
• Driving Accuracy - 146
• Greens in Regulation - 5
• Proximity - 207
• Birdie or Better % - 45
• Par 4 Scoring Average - 63
• Par 5 Scoring Average - 15

 

 

Kevin Kisner
Vegas Odds - 28/1
Draftkings - $10,400
Fantasy Feud - $137,000
Fantasy Aces - $5,600

He broke out in a big way in 2015 with three runner ups and 10 Top 25 finishes in 30 starts. He carried that momentum over in the new season picking up his first career win at the RSM Classic and has made all six cuts so far. He is #1 on my cheatsheet stat ranking with a weighted average of 26.4 when looking at 12 different key stats. He missed the cut here last year as he struggled hitting the greens and making birdies. I don't see this being an issue this time around for the 16th ranked player in the world. He is a safe pick in any format this week with winning upside.

• Strokes Gained: Tee to Green - 18
• Driving Distance - 65
• Driving Accuracy - 5
• Greens in Regulation - 34
• Proximity - 40
• Birdie or Better % - 5
• Par 4 Scoring Average - 5
• Par 5 Scoring Average - 24

 

 

Kevin Na 
Vegas Odds - 28/1
Draftkings - $10,000
Fantasy Feud - $130,000
Fantasy Aces - $5,500

He has carried his consistency from 2015 (made 23/27 cuts) into the new season making all six cuts up to this point. He is coming off his fourth Top 5 finish in the new season(2nd-FRYS, T2-Shriners, T3-CIMB, T3-CareerBuilder) and has been oh so close to winning his first tournament since 2011. He has made the cut here in four straight years (5th-2012, 36th-2013, 19th-2014, 26th-2015) and with his current momentum should be able to contend here again this year. He is ranked #2 on the cheatsheet when looking at weighted stat rankings and doesn't really have a weak spot.

• Strokes Gained: Tee to Green - 9
• Driving Distance - 91
• Driving Accuracy - 56
• Greens in Regulation - 33
• Proximity - 28
• Birdie or Better % - 8
• Par 4 Scoring Average - 10
• Par 5 Scoring Average - 70

 

 

Mid Tier Targets ($7,000 - $9,800)

Ryan Palmer
Vegas Odds - 33/1
Draftkings - $9,900
Fantasy Feud - $130,000
Fantasy Aces - $5,300

He is coming off a 17th place finish at the CareerBuilder Challenge which could have been a whole lot better. He was 17 under going into the final round but fell apart and shot a 1 over. I am hoping this pushes his ownership down a bit which would open up a ton of value. He finished T2 here last year after leading the field in GIR and SG:Putting. It was his 2nd Top 5 finish at the Phoenix Open in the past five years where he has made the cut four times. He is a bomber who tears up the Par 5's and loves playing in an atmosphere like the one at TPC Scottsdale. He has struggled a bit with the putter in the new year which puts my expectations somewhere around a Top 15/Top 20 finish. Great cash game play with winning upside if he can drain some putts this week.

• Strokes Gained: Tee to Green - 31
• Driving Distance - 5
• Driving Accuracy - 166
• Greens in Regulation - 56
• Proximity - 83
• Birdie or Better % - 10
• Par 4 Scoring Average - 94
• Par 5 Scoring Average - 2

 

 

Webb Simpson
Vegas Odds - 50/1
Draftkings - $9,200
Fantasy Feud - $123,000
Fantasy Aces - $3,900

He makes a terrific play this week on any site and a near lock on Fantasy Aces where he is ranked 78th in salary. He has played the Phoenix Open three times in the past five years and finished inside the Top 10 each time. He missed the cut at the FRYS to start the new season but is coming off back to back Top 20's and has shot 70 or better in all eight rounds. He ranks high in distance and accuracy with his weakness being the putter which isn't too important this week anyway.

• Strokes Gained: Tee to Green - 18
• Driving Distance - 44
• Driving Accuracy - 66
• Greens in Regulation - 21
• Proximity - 17
• Birdie or Better % - 56
• Par 4 Scoring Average - 24
• Par 5 Scoring Average - 192

 

 

Tony Finau
Vegas Odds - 66/1
Draftkings - $7,800
Fantasy Feud - $109,000
Fantasy Aces - $4,750

He has the distance we are looking for this week but has lacked accuracy early in his career leaving him to GPP status only this week. In his first trip to TPC Scottsdale on the PGA Tour last year he finished 22nd picking up one of the few eagles for the week and finished T9 in birdies made. With his distance I looked closely at his Proximity numbers and he ranks 41st from 125-150 yards where he should see a ton of approaches from. If he can tame the accuracy and not kill himself with penalty strokes and double bogeys he can contend this week.

• Strokes Gained: Tee to Green - 60
• Driving Distance - 3
• Driving Accuracy - 212
• Greens in Regulation - 159
• Proximity - 51
• Birdie or Better % - 69
• Par 4 Scoring Average - 83
• Par 5 Scoring Average - 20

 

Low End Target (Min Price - $6,900)

Hudson Swafford
Vegas Odds - 125/1
Draftkings - $6,700
Fantasy Feud - $74,000
Fantasy Aces - $3,700

He paid off his value as a low end target last week with a 13th at the Farmers Insurance Open. His price came down $100 on DK and I will be using him as a low end GPP play again this week. He ranks 12th in Driving Distance this year and 36th in Proximity to go along with an excellent 13th rank in Strokes Gained Putting. He has now made three straight cuts and will be making his debut at the Waste Management Phoenix Open. I love his chances of making the cut and possibly sneaking in another Top 20.

• Strokes Gained: Tee to Green
• Driving Distance
• Driving Accuracy
• Greens in Regulation
• Proximity
• Birdie or Better %
• Par 4 Scoring Average
• Par 5 Scoring Average

 

 

Pat Perez
Vegas Odds - 200/1
Draftkings - $6,100
Fantasy Feud - $36,000
Fantasy Aces - $3,850

Should be extremely low owned this week with absolutely horrible current form to start the year. He makes a great choice, however, in GPP's as his salary is really low and allows you to build a solid lineup with a lot of top players. He has had success here in the past making four cuts in his last five trips to Phoenix including two Top 20 finishes. Hopefully coming to a course he plays well at will turn his 2016 season around. Proceed with caution!

• Strokes Gained: Tee to Green - 140
• Driving Distance - 84
• Driving Accuracy - 162
• Greens in Regulation - 123
• Proximity - 142
• Birdie or Better % - 158
• Par 4 Scoring Average - 205
• Par 5 Scoring Average - 144

 

Want to see how these picks and more fit into lineups for the Waste Management Phoenix Open? Chris is selling lineups only $5. He covers DraftKings, FantasyFeud & FantasyAces Cash Games & Tournaments. Fill out the form below or click here to purchase using PayPal. This is a separate service than our traditional monthly membership.

Chris Durell has been playing Daily Fantasy Sports for three years and fantasy in general for more than a decade. He is active player in college football, NFL, NBA and of course PGA. He lives in Saskatchewan, Canada with his wife and two daughters. You can follow him on Twitter at @jager_bombs9 for advice, strategy, answers to any PGA questions and how he copes with the winters up north.