Daily Fantasy College Basketball Picks for FanDuel - 2/20/16

Welcome to our first edition of the college basketball picks here at DFSR. A couple times a week we'll be taking a look at the NCAA basketball slate and throwing out some of the value plays.

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To get things started with our college basketball picks, I thought I’d talk a little about what makes CBB so much different from the NBA. College games are much lower scoring, therefore players rarely hit some of the high values seen in the NBA. If you’re able to create a lineup that returns x4, you’re almost guaranteed to win in cash games, and if you get a lineup that returns x5 or higher, you’ll likely be in the hunt to win the big tournaments. That means finding value plays, particularly at the lower end of things is critical to success. That being said, let’s get the picks rolling.

Upper Tier

Henry Ellenson FD - 9900
I really like the matchup Henry Ellenson has today against DePaul, and I like him as my highest upside potential top-dollar guy. Ellenson is a classic two way player who leads Marquette in scoring and rebounding, and also averages about 2.5 blocks/steals per game. Safe to say he does it all, which is crucial in CBB when scoring isn’t always the highest. Judging by their 242nd ranked scoring defense, DePaul’s about as solid as a wet paper towel when it comes to defending the basket. Look for Ellenson to stuff the sheet today.

Retin Obasohan FD - 9100
This guy might be one of the hottest scorers in the country as of late, and unless you’re a diehard SEC basketball fan (and let’s be honest who really is?) you’ve probably never heard of the guy. Obasohan is averaging just over 22 ppg in his last 9 games, and has eclipsed the 40 point FD threshold in three of his last six games. Mississippi State’s scoring defense is ranked 219th this year, so just small step up from the previously mentioned wet paper towel defense of DePaul. Oh and did I mention Obasohan put up 47 FD points against Mississippi State just 17 days ago? I’ll definitely have him in all of my early lineups today.

Jaron Blossomgame FD - 9100
Another guy who’s been on an absolute tear over his last 10 or so games is Jaron Blossomgame. Don’t let that last name fool you, this guy has been an absolute beast throughout most of this season, but has really turned it up in ACC play. Over his last ten, he’s averaging about 21 ppg and 7 rpg, which is ridiculous for a college player in a league as deep as the ACC. What I really like about Blossomgame is his relatively safe floor, which has seen him over 30 FD points in 8 of his last 10, including 3 at about 40 or above. I’d get him into your lineup because to me he’s the safest big dollar guy on the board.

For the late slate consider: Gary Payton II, Moses Kingsley and A.J Hammonds

 

Middle Tier

Justin Jackson FD - 6800
I know that the Tarheels have been struggling a bit over their past couple of games, but Jackson has been one of the few bright spots for them over the past week or so. He’s really picked up some of the slack as of late, hitting 4x value twice and 5x value once over his past three games. Jackson can do a bit of everything on the court, and that makes his floor a little higher than players that rely exclusively on scoring. I truly believe this game will be a track meet and probably the highest of the slate, so I really like Jackson to rack up stats across the board in this one.

Gavin Ware FD - 7800
He’s a little pricier than Jackson and comes with a little more risk, but his upside is one of the highest on today’s slate. In three of his last six, Ware has gone for over 35 FD points, and one of those games was against the very team he faces today in Alabama. If Mississippi State is going to keep this one close like the last time these two teams met, the Bulldogs are going to have to rely heavily on Ware to have a big game. If he drops a dud don’t say I didn’t give you fair warning, but Ware is definitely a guy I’d try to plug into a tournament lineup.

Sindarius Thornwell FD - 7800
Regardless of how he performs on the court today, he’s got the coolest name on the slate hands down. But I digress and back to basketball. Thornwell is the key guard on a surprising South Carolina team that has been much better this season then many predicted. He’s struggled in his past two games, but before that he had a three game stretch where he averaged 42.6 FD ppg, which is simply staggering for CBB. This guy is getting too many minutes (over 36 mpg in his last 5) to not be productive in a game of this magnitude, so I like Thornwell to have a good one today.

Consider Marcus Paige in tournaments only. He’s bound for a breakout game eventually.

For the late slate consider: Thomas Welsh, Yogi Ferrell, and Bryce Alford

 

Lower Tier

Arthur Edwards FD - 4700
The reason I’m targeting this game a lot because I think the line is low considering the score of their last meeting, and because Mississippi State has just a terrible defense. But anyways, Edwards is a guy you can get for the near minimum who gets decent minutes, and is averaging nearly 10 ppg. He’s my favorite low priced guy today.

Derryck Thornton FD - 4700
This guy is kind of an off-beat play that would probably be best suited for a tournament, but I’m still going to throw him out there. Because Matt Jones went down in the UNC game, Duke basically only has five guys that play significant minutes. And what do you know, basketball is 5v5, so you see the minutes potential that exists. I realize that Thornton is probably Duke’s 4th or 5th scoring option out there, but a guy who’s in line to get 38+ minutes is bound to put up some decent numbers, right? And for these prices, I’d be willing to roll him into a few of my lineups and see what happens.

Isaiah Hicks FD - 4600
It can be really tough to find safe value in the lower priced guys, and Hicks is no exception. His minutes and usage fluctuate wildly depending on the Tarheel’s frontcourt foul situation, and quite frankly the type of mood Roy Williams happens to be in on a given day. That being said, Hicks is the first big off the bench and has had a few big games this year in which he’s paid off above 5x. This is really a gut pick more than anything, but seeing as this is the highest projected line of the early games, Hicks seems like a guy who could benefit from a high scoring affair between two top 25 teams. Not super comfortable with the floor, but the upside is definitely there with this one.

For the late slate consider: Noah Dickerson, Tyler Dorsey and Marcus Allen

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