Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 2/25/16

Ah, Short Slate Thursday. There are a lot of casual players tonight planning to watch the national broadcast on TNT, looking for a little action. If that fits your profile, cool – we’re here to help everybody. For others, it can be a good opportunity for heavy action. Speaking of which, our offshore friends are looking for a lot of scoring in these games. The lowest O/U is 209.5. It’s a little weird though, in that there is not as much blowout risk as you’d think (relatively tight spreads). Player-wise, there are a few guys who look to have huge nights and a lot of lower-end guys with upside, and not so many mid-level values. It’s a good night to pay attention to whether you’re building cash or tourney lineups. Good luck and enjoy!

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POINT GUARD

Shelvin Mack - FD 3700 DK 4100
Opponent - SAS
FD Proj. Pts - 24.98 DK Proj. Pts - 26.46
Shelvin has gotten a big opportunity, and he’s producing in a big way. After a 10x Sunday, he went up 20% on DK. He then sank all the way to a 6x. His price went up again, as you’d expect, but it remains a good time to be on board. We’re looking for a solid 6x+ on FD and DK. When a player is projected to go for over 6x (remember, that’s the average expected production) and the minutes are sound, you don’t worry about floors and ceilings. Cash or tourney, play him with confidence and invest the money elsewhere.

Donald Sloan - FD 4600 DK 4600
Opponent - PHX
FD Proj. Pts - 22.35 DK Proj. Pts - 23.83
On most nights, Sloan would be the top play at the position. He’s on a pretty bad team playing a really bad team. This is as good as it’s going to get in terms of running someone against the Suns and not worrying (much) about blowout risk. The matchup is league-best and Pace should be fine, and there’s a high floor with lots of upside. This is another low-end opportunity that’s hard to pass up, so take it and pocket some salary.

Russell Westbrook - FD 10900 DK 11000
Opponent - NOP
FD Proj. Pts - 51.14 DK Proj. Pts - 53.03
If you’re inclined to take the savings available pretty much everywhere and spend it at PG, Russ would be your man. I actually didn’t play him much on Wednesday, and I feel like I cheated on my wife (well, what I imagine it would feel like). There is the matter of the Pels and their attendant blowout risk, but it’s actually not so bad, with OKC only favored by 5. On most nights, if there’s money to be spent and Russ is on the slate, he’s where you spend it. After making an exception on Wednesday (to my chagrin), I doubt I’ll do so again.

SHOOTING GUARD

Victor Oladipo - FD 6900 DK 7000
Opponent - GSW
FD Proj. Pts - 34.8 DK Proj. Pts - 36.34

‘Dipo is the best value on the board at SG on both FD and DK. He has been on fire coming out of the ASB, and we see that continuing. He’s also a nice mid-level values on this slate. This may not continue as his price is creeping up. Going against the Dubs always has some risk involved – this is one of only two games with a spread approaching double-digits (8.0 as I’m writing). That’s not at all bad considering. And their DvP against the 2 is actually not very good (bottom 3rd of the league). I see this as a good place to take the chalk.

Evan Fournier - FD 5500 DK 5900
Opponent - GSW
FD Proj. Pts - 27.15 DK Proj. Pts - 29.86
Evan Fournier has been a mirror image of his running mate, just at a slightly lower price point. Obviously, all of the same matchup dynamics apply. The high-value opportunity window is likewise slowly sliding closed as the price creeps up. Like Oladipo, this is a mid-tier play. I generally only like to stack in tournaments (which I strongly suggest tonight), but I did so in cash games with this duo on Tuesday and they didn’t disappoint. I’m considering going there again.

Devin Booker - FD 4900 DK 5600
Opponent - BKN
FD Proj. Pts - 23.9 DK Proj. Pts - 27.1
If you don’t want too much exposure against GSW, Booker is an option to consider. His shot has been off coming back from the ASB, so the production has dipped. We see his minutes bouncing back, and, as noted above, catching the Suns as a mere 2-point dog is not going to happen often. The Pace should be o.k. The one word of caution is that the positional matchup isn’t great (BKN is 9th against SGs). Still, all things considered, Booker is a pretty decent, lower-end value play (especially on FD) that the DFSR system really likes.

While the top three guys at this position pretty much separate themselves from the pack, I want to mention Avery Bradley on DK, where he’s a little cheaper and he gets rewarded for hitting the 3.

SMALL FORWARD

Trevor Ariza - FD 6100 DK 6100
Opponent - POR
FD Proj. Pts - 26.72 DK Proj. Pts - 29.79
On a night that’s just not good for the position, Ariza is the top option on DK and a very good one on FD. It’s a tough matchup as the Blazers defend the 3 really well (2nd overall DvP), but the Rockets roll him out for a ton of minutes. He’s been a stud the last two as his shot has fallen, but he has generally got a decent floor because he’s strong other places, particularly defense, where he averages over 2 steals per. He carries an average salary, so if you want to step away from the studs-and-duds a bit, this is a good opportunity.

P.J. Tucker - FD 4400 DK 4800
Opponent - BKN
FD Proj. Pts - 21.18 DK Proj. Pts - 22.67
Tucker is the best play on FD, and it’s not even close. That speaks further to the quality of the position on this slate. Before Monday’s poor showing, he’d shown a solid floor almost all month. That was a (massive) blowout, so the minutes should be back, and the floor as well. Already discussed the matchup, which drives the upside. Note that on DK the prices are more dynamic, so he had a relatively large adjustment with the one bad game. Though he’s not the top-ranked option on DK, he’s close, and I think this is a good place to get him some run there. It’s a no-brainer on FD.

Kevin Durant - FD 10200 DK 9800
Opponent - NOP
FD Proj. Pts - 44.24 DK Proj. Pts - 46.82
With appealing low-end options aplenty, you’re going to have to spend up somewhere. This is one of the places on DK, where Durant’s price is lower and he gets rewarded for connecting from beyond the arc (on FD, there are some better options for excess cash). The matchup has been covered elsewhere. This game has three of the top players in the game on the floor together. I strongly consider getting him into your DK lineup, sitting back, and enjoying the show.

POWER FORWARD

Thaddeus Young - FD 6700 DK 6700
Opponent - PHX
FD Proj. Pts - 36.12 DK Proj. Pts - 37.57
Thaddeus is the 2nd-best Pts/$ option on the board for FD, and 3rd-best on DK. He gets high-30s minutes most nights, and with the lack of blowout risk, we’re projecting the same against Phoenix. Big picture, he has shown a very solid 4x floor and spiked above 7x earlier this month. The potential is there again tonight. This isn’t a savings opportunity, just a pure value play.

Anthony Davis - FD 10200 DK 10000
Opponent - OKC
FD Proj. Pts - 49.31 DK Proj. Pts - 50.05
And now… the Brow. He comes with his signature “Caution – Fragile” label, but as long as he stays on the court, the DFSR system likes him to put up (at least) a 5x. At this price level, that’s hard to find. I’ve discussed the team matchup ad nauseam, and the positional matchup is fine – OKC is pretty average defending the PF position. AD is pretty unique anyway so I don’t usually worry too much about his matchup exposure. This is where you spend up, cash or tourney, both sites.

Jabari Parker - FD 5600 DK 6200
Opponent - BOS
FD Proj. Pts - 28.15 DK Proj. Pts - 29.17
Over his last four games, Jabari has been on fire, and we like the production level to continue. Note that his price has predictably shot up nearly 25% on DK, so he’s merely a solid choice there. On FD he’s a top-end PF option. The C’s play at a ridiculous Pace and are terrible defending the PF position (25th in the league). This isn’t a punt play, but on FD it’s a solid value opportunity, and I like him for a balanced cash game lineup.

CENTER

Steven Adams - FD 4400 DK 4200
Opponent - NOP
FD Proj. Pts - 21.28 DK Proj. Pts - 21.68
Here we have another low-investment value opportunity. Coming off a 6.5x last time out, he just finished a similar beat-down against the Mavs interior. Adams has a rock-solid 4x floor and the potential to spike any given night. He’s going against the Pels and their terrible defense against true big men. I have a hard time not taking the extra money and going with the elite options discussed above.

Dwight Howard - FD 8000 DK 7400
Opponent - POR
FD Proj. Pts - 37.89 DK Proj. Pts - 38.56
If you want to spend up here without breaking the bank, this is a good spot, particularly on DK. When he has been on the floor this month, he has produced, with a 4x floor and 4 games at or above 6x. Portland is terrible against the 5, the game’s got a huge O/U and decent spread. I see Dwight set up for a nice night, and he’s a legit cash option if you don’t snag Adams and the savings. I also really like him as a Utility on DK (where you should have the money unless you’re going Russ/Brow).

Nikola Vucevic - FD 8500 DK 7600
Opponent - GSW
FD Proj. Pts - 39.03 DK Proj. Pts - 39.55
It’s not very common that a player is significantly more costly on FD than DK, but that’s what we have here, just like Howard. Vucevic is a solid play on FD, but the equal of Howard on DK. He should be a nice contrarian play going against the Warriors, so I like him a lot as a DK tourney pick. I see nothing wrong with too many options at one position, especially on a short slate. This is a great way to get some lineup diversity for those running multiples.

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