Basketball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 3/8/16
Well yesterday was a bit nuts huh? Memphis sits three of their best players only to go out and field a team of phenomenal punt plays en route to a win over the Cavs. Just crazy. Tonight should be tame comparatively. There are some good defensive teams, and the Lakers going tonight with a few interesting plays. None of the real expensive dudes are running which makes lineup creation just a smidge easier. Let's get to it.
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John Wall - FD 9600 DK 9400
Opponent - POR
FD Proj. Pts - 44.71 DK Proj. Pts - 45.94
Like I said at the outset, tonight is an odd night in the DFS NBA landscape. No player on FanDuel or DraftKings is over 10K. That means you are going to roster at least a few of the top salary guys simply because you can and will need the raw points. I suppose the question to begin will be Wall or Lillard? Because you see his picture about an inch and a half up to the left, you know we like Wall. Both Portland and Washington have been below average against point guards, but our system thinks Lillard is a tad overpriced and you are getting a better bargain from both a floor and ceiling perspective on Wall.
Shane Larkin - FD 3900 DK 3700
Opponent - TOR
FD Proj. Pts - 22.08 DK Proj. Pts - 23.15
Know this: the Nets are horrible. But horrible teams get to play games too and they even have to run out guys like Larkin for extended run. He's played more than thirty minutes in the last two games while averaging a 15/6/3. It's tough to completely count on the guy as the Nets do play the loser PG carousel between Larkin and Sloan. But Shane's played well enough in the short term to warrant a moderate minutes expectation boost. If you think he sees the run then he's close to a must play at his points/$ projections.
Shelvin Mack - FD 3900 DK 4300
Opponent - ATL
FD Proj. Pts - 21 DK Proj. Pts - 22.49
Revenge game! I don't believe in such nonsense of course but some folks jump on that narrative bandwagon. Our system has no idea Mack used to roll deep on the Hawk bench, but it does like Mack's expectation if he's still the Jazz point guard. As said on the Zach Lowe podcast the other day, it's more a testament to how bad the Jazz ballhandling situation is than it is a compliment for Mack that he's the starter. But he's still coming cheap and running with the varsity.
Elfrid Payton - FD 5600 DK 5900
Opponent - LAL
FD Proj. Pts - 28.62 DK Proj. Pts - 29.19
Yes, I know the Lakers took down the big, bad Warriors the other night. They still stink on defense. LA's ranked dead last in defensive efficiency this season and it isn't particularly close. I'm all over some of the Magic guys tonight, Payton being one of them.
Zach LaVine - FD 5500 DK 5800
Opponent - SAS
FD Proj. Pts - 27.69 DK Proj. Pts - 28.88
This is a bad matchup for Lavine from a game perspective with the Spurs opening as -10.5 favorites. A blowout could lead to Lavine seeing greatly reduced minutes. And oh those minutes. Sam Mitchell has found something he loves in Lavine and that means the terrible coach is running dude out there for seemingly infinity run. Shooting guard has its issues today leading me to most likely taking the chance on Lavine no matter what. I'm just worried he gets those minutes buzzed.
Victor Oladipo - FD 6600 DK 7100
Opponent - LAL
FD Proj. Pts - 30.68 DK Proj. Pts - 32.16
The Magic are a little bit all over the place right now with their injury situations and who they want to run between the two and three. Some of that confusion is thanks to recent uncertainty about Oladipo and Fournier. But things may be getting back to normal now that Dipo is back and playing a full compliment of minutes. If you think he's going in the mid 30's then he's basically a lock for me on FanDuel. As it stands, even coming on the back-to-back and questions about minutes I think I'd still take the chance on him because of how porous the Lakers are on D.
Consider Arron Afflalo
Carmelo Anthony - FD 9100 DK 8400
Opponent - DEN
FD Proj. Pts - 42.68 DK Proj. Pts - 44.78
Melo falls into that John Wall category for me in that he's one of the better points/$ plays among the big boys on this slate. Dude's been chucking from the rafters over his last ten games or so. Only one of them (his most recent) has seen him take less than 20 shots in an affair. The results have been a steady performance over this stretch with a higher floor and limited ceiling. Carmelo doesn't shoot enough threes to really blow it out of the box in scoring even when he's putting up shot after shot. But the volume against a below average Denver defense should be there.
Kent Bazemore - FD 4900 DK 5200
Opponent - UTA
FD Proj. Pts - 23.78 DK Proj. Pts - 25.08
Since the minutes crept back up to close to thirty a game, Baze has been paying his FanDuel price easily. Part of that is he's been shooting more threes with his time on the court. Baze isn't lights out from downtown, but he gets the job done while also chipping enough on the boards to make a solid cash game play. The Jazz are a tough defensive team but Bazemore is here because the continued opportunity is outpacing his price at the moment.
Otto Porter - FD 4400 DK 4400
Opponent - POR
FD Proj. Pts - 18.92 DK Proj. Pts - 19.61
The last time Bradley Beal missed a game Otto Porter went out and played 36 minutes with a 15/8/4/2 line. Is that a small sample size from more than a month ago? Hell yeah it is. But I could see it happen again tonight. Porter's seen his price steadily drop since Beal's return as the minutes really haven't been there with the latter coming off the bench. That won't be the case here. And while yes Washington is a slightly different team, Porter is still running with the starters and could stick on the court to provide more scoring.
LaMarcus Aldridge - FD 7400 DK 6800
Opponent - MIN
FD Proj. Pts - 36.46 DK Proj. Pts - 37.24
What we know is that Pop won't be at the game tonight because he's dealing with a personal issue at home. Does that decrease the chance of getting Pop'd on this slate? Maybe, unless he's brainwashed the assistant coaching staff as well. The Spurs are on a back-to-back tonight and heavy favorites against the T-Wolves. But if you think LMA goes full (he got a rest night on Saturday) then he's a top play at power forward. Minnesota is about average against opposing fours this season and it wouldn't totally shock me to see Kawhi get some rest in this one. That's total conjecture of course, these are the Spurs we're talking about. Aldridge isn't the most exciting player in the NBA to watch, but he's consistent when the minutes are there. Putting up double-doubles like he's getting paid for them (which he is) and his projection has him in line for another one tonight.
Thaddeus Young - FD 7000 DK 6800
Opponent - TOR
FD Proj. Pts - 34.51 DK Proj. Pts - 35.8
The Nets sat him at the last second on Saturday (along with Brook Lopez) and leading to one of the better NBA DFS pre-lineup lock scrambles in some time (the Spurs sitting a bunch of guys aided and abetted as well). Young and Lopez only sat for rest and both should be back at full go tonight. It's a tougher matchup against the Raptors in that they're above average against power forwards, but this slate is tough almost all around from a defensive perspective. The only thing that could jeopardize his minutes is how well Thomas Robinson and Willie Reed played the other night. If you think they cut into his run then he's getting bumped down out of consideration.
Markieff Morris - FD 5100 DK 5500
Opponent - POR
FD Proj. Pts - 27.78 DK Proj. Pts - 28.74
Tournament play though our system may start insisting you play him in cash games as well. The Wiz will be without Bradley Beal and his 12-16 shot attempts per game. While Markieff isn't the positional replacement for Beal, he could certainly see more looks and there are minutes to get passed down the line. The Wiz are already forced to play small some of the time and Portland isn't a bad matchup to go a little undersized if need be. If the minutes creep into the low 30's then I'll certainly take the risk on Markieff with the expectation that he's getting up double digit shots at least.
Strongly consider Paul Millsap
Rudy Gobert - FD 6900 DK 6600
Opponent - ATL
FD Proj. Pts - 31.95 DK Proj. Pts - 32.53
Woof is center every gross tonight. Really no options you'd feel entirely comfortable throwing out there. And I don't think Gobert is necessarily a lock for value. But he's seen an uptick in minutes lately, playing 34-37 almost like clockwork. He's not a big part of the offense, averaging only about six shots per game though he's incredibly efficient on the few dunks or post shots he gets. Gobert derives his value through rebounding and blocked shots. The latter are tough to count on game to game which can lead to swings in his production. I'm taking a slight discount on him at a weak position.
Karl-Anthony Towns - FD 8900 DK 7900
Opponent - SAS
FD Proj. Pts - 41.18 DK Proj. Pts - 41.89
KAT went beast mode last night against the Hornets to the tune of a 28/14. The Minnesota announcer went so far as to say during the broadcast that Towns would end up being the greatest T-Wolve player of all-time over Kevin Garnett. He's sure as hell off to a good start. Only the blowout has me worried here, but if Minnesota can stay in the game it's likely because Towns played well and ran a ton.
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