Golf Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
Daily Fantasy PGA Picks for DraftKings, FantasyFeud & FantasyAces - Valspar Championship
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Innisbrook Resort (Copperhead) -Palm Harbor, FL
Par 71 - 7,340 Yards
The WGC Cadillac Championship ended yesterday afternoon with Adam Scott picking up the win and becoming the first player with multiple wins this year. The win didn't come without some hold your breath moments in the final round. Check out his 18th hole yesterday:
When things are going your way, things are going your way. How that ball stopped on the bank is beyond me. Then he follows it up with a crazy stance flop shot and clutch 6 footer for the win. I would say Adam Scott is back and primed for another run at a Masters Green Jacket in four weeks.
This week the players head to the Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Country Club for the 2016 Valspar Championship. As mentioned above Jordan Spieth is the defending champion after beating out Patrick Reed and Sean O'Hair in a playoff. The course is a little different from most Florida courses as it is made up of smaller tree lined fairways and rolling terrain. It is also made up of five Par 3's with distances ranging from 195-235 yards. I will be combining Par 3 Scoring Average with Proximity from 200-225 to get a better look at who should do well on these holes. Looking at past results the top players on the leaderboard do most of their scoring on the Par 5's and Par 3's while just trying to survive the Par 4's. We will be looking at Par 4's Scoring Average closest as the top players on the leaderboard tend to correlate a lot more closely to 2015 Par 4 ranks than another scoring stat. The other two main stats I am using this week are Scrambling and Good Drive % which is new to my articles. It is a better way of looking at Driving Accuracy and GIR. It is a simple formula that looks at Par 4's and Par 5's(Not driving on Par 3's). It takes into account fairways hit + greens or fringe in regulation hit when the player does not hit fairway off the tee.
Below are the main stats I am weighting on the cheatsheet this week. Up to 20 PGA Tour stats are used each week. The cheatsheet also provides last 5 years of tournament history and last 5 tournaments of current form. I have also added a tab showing the course layout and yardages as well as a breakdown of the Top 10 and key stats from last years WGC Cadillac Championship.
- Strokes Gained: Tee to Green
- Ball Striking
- Good Drive %
- Proximity from 200-225 Yards
- Par 3 Scoring Average
- Par 4 Scoring Average
- Bogey Avoidance
- Strokes Gained: Putting
I will again this week be interacting through the comments section below and ready to answer any questions about Fantasy Golf or anything you wanna talk about. Join the conversation. And as always, I am available on Twitter @Jager_bombs9.
High End Targets ($10,000+)
Vegas Odds - 5/1
Draftkings - $12,800
Fantasy Feud - $190,000
Fantasy Aces - $6,200
The defending champ is back to defend the title. It was at the win last March that propelled Jordan multiple major championships, the Fedex Cup and Player of the Year. I am hoping with his mediocre finish last week coupled with his salary being $1,300 more than the next guy will bring his ownership down a bit, but either way he is a fantastic play in any format. He is the best player in the world right now(close battle with McIlroy, Day, Fowler) and comes back to a course with a ton of meaning. Get him in your lineups this week.
- Strokes Gained: Tee to Green - 14
- Ball Striking - 44
- Good Drive % - 17
- Proximity from 200-225 Yards - 65
- Par 3 Scoring Average - 75
- Par 4 Scoring Average - 1
- Scrambling - 74
- Bogey Avoidance - 17
- Strokes Gained: Putting - 19
Vegas Odds - 33/1
Draftkings - $9,800
Fantasy Feud - $151,000
Fantasy Aces - $5,500
He falls just below the upper tier threshold but I will include him as the top tier is a little thin this week. He has made the cut here four straight years and has only missed one cut here, back in 2007. He makes a great start to any cash lineup as he hasn't missed a cut on Tour since the PLAYERS Championship back in May of 2015. He hits on almost every stat we are looking for this week including a 12th rank in SG:P, 20th in Bogey Avoidance, and 22nd in Par 3 Scoring. I am predicting a Top 10 finish with Top 5 upside and 100% chance of smiles.
- Strokes Gained: Tee to Green - 59
- Ball Striking - 98
- Good Drive % - 90
- Proximity from 200-225 Yards - 92
- Par 3 Scoring Average - 22
- Par 4 Scoring Average - 41
- Scrambling - 43
- Bogey Avoidance - 20
- Strokes Gained: Putting - 12
Vegas Odds - 28/1
Draftkings - $10,000
Fantasy Feud - $158,000
Fantasy Aces - $5,200
It has been an up and down second season to this point for Thomas. He opened the year with T3 and his first career win followed by three more made cuts. He then missed back to back cuts at the Sony Open and Waste Management Phoenix Open followed by a T54 at the Northern Trust and a terrific T3 at the Honda Classic. He is coming off a dissapoitning T35 last week in a 70 player field but should rebound nicely this week at Innisbrook. He is a bomber who is also ranked high in Good Drive %. He has excellent Proximity, average on Par 3's and destroys the Par 4's and 5's. His current scrambling rank of 166 doesn't scare me much as he was ranked 37th at the end of the 2015 season. He should be able to duplicate his Top 10 finish from last year and makes a terrific GPP play this week.
- Strokes Gained: Tee to Green - 38
- Ball Striking - 28
- Good Drive % - 53
- Proximity from 200-225 Yards - 20
- Par 3 Scoring Average - 65
- Par 4 Scoring Average - 28
- Scrambling - 166
- Bogey Avoidance - 79
- Strokes Gained: Putting - 145
Mid Tier Targets ($7,000 - $9,800)
Vegas Odds - 40/1
Draftkings - $9,300
Fantasy Feud - $123,000
Fantasy Aces - $4,700
He ranks 9th in my stats model this week as he hits on almost every stat. He is elite when looking at Good Drive %, he ranks 3rd in Par 3 Scoring, 14th in Par 4 Scoring and is a terrific scrambler and putter. He is also coming in with good form having started the season making five cuts in six tournaments highlighted by four Top 15 finishes. His results here have varied over the years as he has only made 5 out of 9 cuts in his career but is coming off a terrific Top 5 finish last year. He makes a great choice in any format this week.
- Strokes Gained: Tee to Green - 34
- Ball Striking - 60
- Good Drive % - 16
- Proximity from 200-225 Yards - 35
- Par 3 Scoring Average - 2
- Par 4 Scoring Average - 14
- Scrambling - 40
- Bogey Avoidance - 40
- Strokes Gained: Putting - 41
Vegas Odds - 50/1
Draftkings - $8,400
Fantasy Feud - $116,000
Fantasy Aces - $4,850
It has been a career year for Knox and we are only in March. He picked up his first career win at the HSBC Champions and has made close to $300,000 more than all of last year in 18 less events. He has made 7 of 10 cuts and in those made cuts has not finished worse than a T38. He is a great option for cash games on courses where accuracy and precision are needed. He has an elite good Drive %(7th), elite GIR(1st), elite Prox(19th), elite Par 3(14th) and Par 4(14th) Scoring Average, elite Bogey Avoidance(1st) and he is also an elite scrambler ranking 9th on Tour. He missed the cut here in his first trip back in 2011 but has gone back to back years now making the cut with a T33 and T25. He has the upside this week to finish inside the Top 20 and is one of the best value plays in the field.
- Strokes Gained: Tee to Green - 66
- Ball Striking - 12
- Good Drive % - 7
- Proximity from 200-225 Yards - 82
- Par 3 Scoring Average - 14
- Par 4 Scoring Average - 14
- Scrambling - 9
- Bogey Avoidance - 1
- Strokes Gained: Putting - 150
Vegas Odds - 100/1
Draftkings - $7,300
Fantasy Feud - $95,000
Fantasy Aces - $4,400
Outside of back to back cuts at the Farmers Insurance Open and Phoenix Open, Reavie is having a good season. He has made eight cuts in 10 tournaments and is coming off his best outing of the year with a 7th place finish at the Northern Trust Open. Statistically he ranks very well in my model, highlighted by a 25th rank in ball Striking, 20th rank in Good Drive % and a 3rd rank in Scrambling. He missed the cut here last season but has made four of six in his career at the Valspar.
- Strokes Gained: Tee to Green - 25
- Ball Striking - 56
- Good Drive % - 20
- Proximity from 200-225 Yards - 25
- Par 3 Scoring Average - 33
- Par 4 Scoring Average - 28
- Scrambling - 3
- Bogey Avoidance - 27
- Strokes Gained: Putting - 143
Also Consider - Graham Delaet, Charles Howell III, Luke Donald
Low End Target (Min Price - $6,900)
Vegas Odds - 150/1
Draftkings - $6,700
Fantasy Feud - $53,000
Fantasy Aces - $4,100
He makes a great cash play this week who is fairly safe to make the cut. he has made three straight and seven out of 10 so far this year highlighted by a Top 20 finish at the CIMB Classic. He is great Tee to Green and ranks 20th in Ball Striking. He is also Top 35 in Par 3 Scoring which should bode well with five par 3's this week. Looking at course history he has made the cut here in 9 of 12 appearances in his career with two Top 10's and Five Top 20 finishes.
- Strokes Gained: Tee to Green - 30
- Ball Striking - 20
- Good Drive % - 76
- Proximity from 200-225 Yards - 122
- Par 3 Scoring Average - 33
- Par 4 Scoring Average - 91
- Scrambling - 179
- Bogey Avoidance - 106
- Strokes Gained: Putting - 188
Vegas Odds - 200/1
Draftkings - $6,500
Fantasy Feud - $46,000
Fantasy Aces - $3,800
There isn't much to look at statistically as Stefani has had a horrible start this year. He has missed four straight cuts and seven out of 10 on the year. Why are you picking him again? Solely based off course history this week. He has played here twice in his career and made the cut both times highlighted by a T7 in 2013 and a T17 last year. He seems to be comfortable here and will be extremely low owned this week due to his current form. It is worth taking a shot in GPP's this week as he has Top 10 upside.
- Strokes Gained: Tee to Green - 159
- Ball Striking - 167
- Good Drive % - 171
- Proximity from 200-225 Yards - 140
- Par 3 Scoring Average - 195
- Par 4 Scoring Average - 172
- Scrambling - 130
- Bogey Avoidance - 129
- Strokes Gained: Putting - 204
Also Consider - Si Woo Kim, Nick Taylor, Daniel Summerhays
Valspar Championship Update Thread
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Chris Durell has been playing Daily Fantasy Sports for three years and fantasy in general for more than a decade. He is active player in college football, NFL, NBA and of course PGA. He lives in Saskatchewan, Canada with his wife and two daughters. You can follow him on Twitter at @jager_bombs9 for advice, strategy, answers to any PGA questions and how he copes with the winters up north.
- Singapore SMBC Open Golf: (AP Photo/Wong Maye-E)