Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 3/18/16

It's a big day around here for the DFSR boys. Tonight, the optimal lineup will run in the DraftKings FBWC Live Final. That's a promise. We live with our projections and believe in them above all. We've always been committed to offer the most accurate projections in the business and those numbers have gotten us to the DK big stage. You'll see the same lineup going in barring something unforeseen. With that said, let's get to the picks.

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POINT GUARD

Tim Frazier - FD 3500 DK 3400
Opponent - POR
FD Proj. Pts - 20.53 DK Proj. Pts - 21.61
The word is he'll get the start on Friday. Obviously the Pelicans are a total mess when it comes to anything resembling cognitive thought or reason. But alas, it's Tim getting the start and we need to take notice. Last game he got a ten day contract, played 27 minutes and went 14/3/9 on his way to more than paying off the salary. Can we pencil him in for the same thing? No, but at these prices he's more than worth it.

Russell Westbrook - FD 10600 DK 10500
Opponent - PHI
FD Proj. Pts - 51.95 DK Proj. Pts - 53.82
Only one question you are asking here: can Philly keep it close? That's the only consideration when it comes to Russ. The Sixers have been below average against point guards this season and will allow opposing squads to get to value because of volume. The only thing I'm worried about with Westbrook is the blowout worries and OKC comes in as 15 point favorites which could severely limit Westbrook's upside. This one is tough. I'm tempted to play him because the floor is so damn high. But this one could get buzzed off early.

Ricky Rubio - FD 7000 DK 6900
Opponent - HOU
FD Proj. Pts - 35.31 DK Proj. Pts - 36.32
Rubio's a tough guy to root for on a given night when it comes to fantasy simply because unlike many other guys in this price range, he doesn't derive a majority of his points from scoring. When a lot of your fantasy value is wrapped up in what other people are able to achieve the sledding gets tough. But this is just the right kind of matchup against Houston who plays the 7th fastest pace in the league and the 23rd defensive efficiency. I'm all over it even though that game log looks a little weird.

Darren Collison shoots to the top of this list if Rajon Rondo sits again

 

SHOOTING GUARD

C.J. McCollum - FD 6400 DK 6400
Opponent - NOP
FD Proj. Pts - 30.71 DK Proj. Pts - 32.69
Well, saying the system is bullish on this guy would be a mild understatement. CJ is coming off a week of subpar performances missing value in four straight games. His recent play has scared a few off and as a result of the two we’re seeing a dip in his salary, which is roughly 15% below his peak salary. McCollum was a top play last night even against the Spurs, but then news surfaced of Jordan Hill starting and it shifted the allocation of salary, thus removing him from the optimal lineup. Needless to say that was a less than favorable pivot given McCollum’s 40pt outburst. SG offers a fairly robust group of viable options, which should keep his ownership in check, even against a deplorable Pelicans defense. New Orleans allows roughly worse than league average scoring to SG and there’s no reason to think that will suddenly change. He makes for a solid cash play and with so many SG options may also be a nice separation play.

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope - FD 5300 DK 5600
Opponent - SAC
FD Proj. Pts - 25.04 DK Proj. Pts - 27.64
KCP is one of those guys that never quite receives the attention he should. Jackson and Drummond seem to garner much of the attention for the Pistons, but KCP is very much an integral part of their offense and you could even argue he’s one of the more consistent fantasy player for Detroit. Over his last seven games he has reached at least 20 fantasy points and in the right matchup he has legit 6x upside. Sacramento qualifies as the right matchup. The Kings get absolutely destroyed against, well everyone, but particularly SG. The Kings are a bad defensive team all things considered. The floor is very high here given his price and the upside is just the icing on the cake.

Zach LaVine - FD 5800 DK 6000
Opponent - HOU
FD Proj. Pts - 27.49 DK Proj. Pts - 28.72
At this point the secret is out and the DFS community is well aware of one Mr. LaVine. He’s no longer the dunk contest gem and since being inserted into the starting lineup has been a marvel of consistency. Sure, he has the occasional stinker, but even Curry misses a shot every now and again. The reality is LaVine is one of the young and up and coming players for the T’Wolves. His minutes appear to be locked and so does his role in the offense. Throw in a fast paced game against the Rockets and we have a winning recipe. His price is creeping, but he’s still very much a strong value. Another high floor guy.

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SMALL FORWARD

Kevin Durant - FD 10400 DK 10100
Opponent - PHI
FD Proj. Pts - 50 DK Proj. Pts - 53.12
He's very much in the Westbrook camp in that I'm only worried about the blowout. If you stack Durant, Westbrook and a couple of the Philly guys then I could easily see you taking down a big tournament tonight. But there's a big swing in expected value on this game because so many scenarios have this thing ending with Durant and Westbrook riding pine in the fourth. Durant comes out as a top play in the system for obvious reasons, but I'm for sure worried about the minutes' buzz off.

LeBron James - FD 9800 DK 9300
Opponent - ORL
FD Proj. Pts - 46.18 DK Proj. Pts - 48
I'm not in love with small forwards on this slate at all. Whenever a guy in Lebron's price point is coming up this high in the pts/$ category then you need to be skeptical of the position as a whole. It just means the value is few and far between. His matchup against Orlando is fair enough, though again you aren't deriving a sick amount of upside from him barring unforeseen circumstances. This one is more about the position coming in on the softer side.

Andrew Wiggins - FD 6500 DK 6300
Opponent - HOU
FD Proj. Pts - 30.06 DK Proj. Pts - 30.87
What I don't love about Wiggins is how much the dude relies on scoring to boost his overall line. He's shot nutso from the field over the last two games, over 60% which surely isn't sustainable. That gives the recency bias folks a little buoy but I'm not totally convinced he's a safe play by any means. Wiggins does need the looks on offense and needs a heavy volume to raise his floor. Would be scared off a bit for cash games.

 

POWER FORWARD

Tobias Harris - FD 6000 DK 6300
Opponent - SAC
FD Proj. Pts - 30.82 DK Proj. Pts - 32.62
Do you think SVG is loving the Tobias trade? He gave up a guy he hated playing for a dude he's happy to run out there for major minutes in the right situation. Outside of a blowout against the Wiz, Tobias has run about a 20/7 in the last four games. Van Gundy is more than happy to have his services and now he's playing one of the worst defenses in the league with the Kings. I don't think the price is close and he's looking like a high floor guy.

Kevin Love - FD 7000 DK 7100
Opponent - ORL
FD Proj. Pts - 36.69 DK Proj. Pts - 39.43
He's actually ahead of Tobias in the system though I'm a little worried about the love coming Love's way here. He's a bit feast or famine based on the matchup. That's not his fault necessarily because the Cavs are able to exploit different defenses leading to different parts of their squad doing damage. The problem is knowing how they'll distribute the love (so to speak).

Anthony Davis - FD 10200 DK 10000
Opponent - POR
FD Proj. Pts - 49.24 DK Proj. Pts - 49.98
A little lower on the list even with the higher price tag. It's so hard to evaluate Brow's season. On the one hand he's been his traditional per minute beast. But he's also been made of glass and broken many a heart. But when he's played and the minutes are there? Dude's still among the elite in the fantasy space. Portland's defended well against power forwards this season which has me somewhat worried about Brow simply going up against their system which will slow things down. But Davis has a high floor because his price hasn't fully caught up.

 

CENTER

Bismack Biyombo - FD 4200 DK 4600
Opponent - BOS
FD Proj. Pts - 21.9 DK Proj. Pts - 22.37This play is obviously contingent on Jonas missing his 3rd consecutive game. Given the Mr. BB comes close to hitting value as a backup it should be a lock and load play when he starts. Oddly enough he was only a 15% start against the Bucks and 34% against the Pacers. He finished with 33 & 50 points which is good for 8x and 12x at this price. The Celtics get chewed up on the inside and while BB isn’t exactly known for his offensive prowess he cleans everything up on the defensive end. I would imagine his usage will spike tomorrow night against Boston, but I would have also thought he would have been higher than 15/34 in the last two games as well. Don’t fret, this is not a situation you want to get cute. If he starts lock it up.

Andre Drummond - FD 7900 DK 8100
Opponent - SAC
FD Proj. Pts - 39.36 DK Proj. Pts - 40.1
Most days I consider Drummond my nemesis as I can never seem to get this guy right. I’m certain Drummond will be the play of the night if I pass and sink my ship if he finds his way into my lineup. He certainly has a juicy matchup against the Kings with foul trouble being the only real concern. It will actually be interesting to see how this game plays out as Boogie has been known to pick up his fair share of fouls as well. His price has come down a bit due to some up and down performances, but he’s still a monster on the glass and remains involved in the offense. There is some considerable upside given the matchup and expected pace, but assuming he stays out of foul trouble the floor is tremendously high at this price.

Dwight Howard - FD 7500 DK 7500
Opponent - MIN
FD Proj. Pts - 36.7 DK Proj. Pts - 37.34
As I sit here in San Diego fretting about tomorrow’s FBWC I am in a room full of DFS players, mostly on their devices, watching one of the 47 big screens, but unfortunately there is deafening club music playing, because that’s a fitting idea. This last spot was a bit of a toss up between Towns and Howard. I wouldn’t blame you regardless the direction you choose, but Howard comes in as the more consistent player relative to price. The Rockets lack any real talent in the frontcourt aside from Dwight. He seems to be far removed from any type of minutes restriction or back-to-back drama and his production has responded. Yes, I realize he laid an egg last time out, but the guy is locked into minutes in the mid 30’s and has been operating at about a point per minute. He should really be priced about 10% higher given his recent game log. He should have a field day inside against the T’Wolves.

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