Basketball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 3/25/16
Jrue Holiday gets ruled out right before lock last night and the whole thing melts down around us. It's crazy how one piece of news can cascade all the way down the line. Last night was a weird one with Brooklyn beating the Cavs, the D-League Pelicans hanging with the Pacers on the back of Ajinca and some other crap that didn't make sense. Let's hope tonight returns to "normal".
A nice little Friday going in the NBA with our picks mostly focusing in on two games. There are a couple of contests projected to play a fast pace and very little defense. Let's take a look.
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Brandon Knight - FD 7200 DK 7500
Opponent - SAC
FD Proj. Pts - 36.7 DK Proj. Pts - 39.05
After sitting out with injury for many weeks earlier in the season, Knight looks fully back in the fold for this Suns team who are winning just a little too much for a squad who should be tanking. Knight is part of that as he's resumed the scoring you get from a certified chucker. He's been putting up about 18 shots a game and averaging a 19/6/6 over his last six. The Kings are one of the worst defensive squads in the league (led by Rondo) and play at the fastest pace in the NBA. This game will be up and down the court without any hint of D.
Rajon Rondo - FD 7800 DK 7800
Opponent - PHX
FD Proj. Pts - 38.81 DK Proj. Pts - 39.55
Speaking of this game, Rondo should be part of the track meet bound to ensue when the first and fifth fastest teams in the league (28th and 25th in the league defensively) try to see who can be the best turnstiles. Rondo has a high floor in this one with or without Boogie. The minutes should be up there and there will be plenty of opportunities to distribute.
Goran Dragic - FD 6700 DK 6200
Opponent - ORL
FD Proj. Pts - 33.62 DK Proj. Pts - 35.24
Before getting waxed by the Spurs the other night, Goran had been dealing of late with his previous six games seeing him him averaging an 18/5/8 and playing major minutes for the Heat. They've been scoring a ton of points lately and Dragic's scoring and distribution have been a big part of that. Look for him to work on an Orlando squad ranked in the middle of the pack overall on defense and allowing slightly worse than average production to opposing point guards.
Consider John Wall
Wesley Matthews - FD 4100 DK 4400
Opponent - GSW
FD Proj. Pts - 23.01 DK Proj. Pts - 26.26
Rick Carlisle said the Mavs would lean more heavily on Wes with Parsons out and they've done just that. He's played a ton of minutes in the last two, 37 in regulation against the Blazers and 41 the second time around on the home and home. Matthews is also shooting more, getting ten up from three last game. There's some blowout risk here, but Matthews' price hasn't caught up to his new role with the team and the pace of this game will undoubtedly be quick.
Zach LaVine - FD 6300 DK 6000
Opponent - WAS
FD Proj. Pts - 29.61 DK Proj. Pts - 31.03
He's been playing a million minutes of late at both the two and the second unit point guard, even cutting into Rubio's minutes. Lavine doesn't have much more than 5x upside at these prices because he doesn't have much of a game beyond the scoring. Because he doesn't get to the boards or even hand out any assists, the scoring has to win the day. But against a lightning fast Wiz team the shot volume should be there and then some. Lavine will be a decent sized cash game play on the main slate because the price doesn't kill you and the floor is high because of the minutes.
Bradley Beal - FD 5300 DK 5100
Opponent - MIN
FD Proj. Pts - 25.66 DK Proj. Pts - 27.63
Beal was terrible last game against the Hawks where he played 31 minutes and managed only a 7/3. A gross performance all around for Beal though I'm willing to back to him tonight against the T-Wolves. Zach Lavine isn't known for a strong defensive presence and Minnesota is ranked 27th in the league in defensive efficiency. Beal should be good for at least double digit shot attempts after only getting up 8 last time out. That's not his game and I expect a bounce back.
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Otto Porter - FD 5000 DK 5100
Opponent - MIN
FD Proj. Pts - 24.69 DK Proj. Pts - 25.61
You're going to notice a heavy lean toward two games on this slate. Phoenix-Sacramento is one of them and Washington-Minnesota is the other. Not every play is from those two games, but there's a lot of value coming out of the those two matchups. Porter isn't the safest guy in the world but he's been getting up 10-15 shots per game over his last three and I suspect that continues again tonight. Andrew Wiggins isn't a great defender and this game has the second highest expected total on the night. There's a lot of mid tier value coming in and Porter is just another example of a fair price in just the right kind of game.
Andrew Wiggins - FD 6900 DK 6400
Opponent - WAS
FD Proj. Pts - 32.44 DK Proj. Pts - 33.3
See what I mean in this game? Wiggins, much like his teammate Lavine has been running like crazy over most of the season and especially of late. He's not as scoring dependent as Lavine, but he isn't too far behind, averaging less than four rebounds per game and only two assists over the course of the season. The rebounding's ticked up just a bit over the last bit, but not enough to represent a major shift. But those minutes are the key tonight against the Wiz and I'll have a lot of exposure to this game.
I'll be mostly targeting the two guys above, but you can strongly consider Kyle Anderson if he's getting the start for Kawhi Leonard. Similarly, Stanley Johnson could also be in for more minutes if KCP sits again.
Jon Leuer - FD 4600 DK 4100
Opponent - SAC
FD Proj. Pts - 32.22 DK Proj. Pts - 33.04
Leuer is basically a must start if Tyson Chandler sits again. In the last two games without Chandler, Leuer's gone bananas with a 13/13 and a 22/14. He'd be in line for similar production tonight if he was running a ton at the 4/5 (depending on his rotations with Len). Leuer is one of those DFS specials that come around all the time during the year. A dude whose minutes dramatically increase because of circumstance who'll be off the radar in a week or two. Again, check Chandler's news before hand on this one.
Draymond Green - FD 8200 DK 8100
Opponent - DAL
FD Proj. Pts - 39.73 DK Proj. Pts - 42.11
This one is projecting as a blowout but power forward is so thin tonight that I would possibly look at Draymond even with a minutes reduction because the thing got out of hand. He has a solid floor expectation though the game would need to stay close for him to really crush. He's mostly here because I think the other positions offer a decent amount of mid tier value and you'll have to spend up a bit somewhere. Power forward is one of those slots.
Paul Millsap - FD 7700 DK 7800
Opponent - MIL
FD Proj. Pts - 37.32 DK Proj. Pts - 38.93
Millsap follows much of the same thinking as Green. Because you are getting pretty fantastic pts/$ looks at point guard and shooting guard then you can afford to go up to a guy like Millsap. The Hawks are favored against the Bucks and Milwaukee's been well below average against opposing power forwards this season. Count Millsap in the group of guys I feel like I've never played on the right night, but I don't harbor those kind of emotions going in. DFS means forgetting past transgressions and taking the raw points sometimes.
Strongly consider Gorgui Dieng
Karl-Anthony Towns - FD 9000 DK 8300
Opponent - WAS
FD Proj. Pts - 43.59 DK Proj. Pts - 44.33
Although he may have been going up against a Kings team without DeMarcus Cousins as well as a few below subpar teams against bigs, In his past 5 games he’s averaged 41.6 Fantasy Points. In terms of production I really think you can’t ask for much more in a 50/50 contest going forward at that price. As a GPP play, I don’t recommend using as I think you can get much better value across the board. With that being said, The Minnesota Timberwolves are not a very good basketball team who will continue to feed their young star, and potential rookie of the year in Karl Anthony Towns. I’d get him active in cash games if you’re willing to spend for the consistent production he brings.
Dwight Howard - FD 7300 DK 6800
Opponent - TOR
FD Proj. Pts - 36.05 DK Proj. Pts - 36.69
On a night to night basis, I’m one of the most anti Dwight Howard guys out there. Tonight against the Raptors, I think his matchup along with price could not be better. James Harden had an incredible game against Utah, while Dwight simply got shut down. With a depleted front court, and possibly Jonas Valanciunas guarding him I can see Dwight having a feast on the boards. DeRozan and Lowry are rather average defenders, so I’m confident Harden will still be able to put up decent numbers. Dwight on the other hand, should be able to steal the show and have a huge mismatch tomorrow night, look for him to put up a 34-44 point night.
Marcin Gortat - FD 6300 DK 6500
Opponent - MIN
FD Proj. Pts - 31.07 DK Proj. Pts - 31.59
In terms of price I love Marcin Gortat. In terms of production, I truthfully don’t. The Washington Wizards are the definition of Katy Perry’s song “Hot/Cold”. The team either shoots lights out, or hits absolutely nothing and l really think there offense as a whole doesn’t have to run through Gortat at all with a young back court in Wall and Beal. He’s more of a “If he fits” type of guy when you’re building lineups. Fact is: He’s the only big that you can count on to be out there each and every night for this Wizards team, which makes him incredibly safe. If you can live with his 13 Points, 10 Rebound average over the past 10 games along with the fact he is going up against a defensive guru in Karl Anthony Towns, than he is worth a play.
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- Karl-Anthony Towns, Joffrey Lauvergne: (AP Photo/David Zalubowski)